Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[Man With Beard]

Confirmation of some extremely steamy possibilities next week - all eyes on that second low then!!

 

[Weatherlad50]

it is amazing that one week ago the GFS was saying 10 degrees and rain  - now 24 or 25 degrees for Yorkshire and hot sunshine once the rain clears on Tuesday.

Hopefully the cut off low will stay and we will have a long hot summer with the Azores high settling over the UK. Lets see what the GFS 12Z shows.  Dont be suprised if there is a massive downgrade later. 

[Singularity]

3 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

would you?... the anomaly charts have been quite consistent since this strong azores high pattern emerged. it seems very plausible to me and much though id like higher heights over the uk/eastern europe i would bet on anything like that happening longer then 24-36 hours.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

I should have been clearer sorry; I meant the individual runs.

Ensemble-derived products should fare better although the low AAM bias will still tend to restrict the signal for eastward extension of the Azores High a little too much.

This week's warmer outcome has been made possible by a reduction of the jet stream strength in our sector as the AAM progression was corrected, with this allowing more NE-ward ridging of the Azores High this past weekend and setting up an environment in which trough disruption and cut off lows often tend to occur. It could well have ended up more unsettled of course hence despite the improved ridging there has never a case for shouting for extensive fine weather this week.

For next week, the GFS 06z is the first op run to show something along the lines of what I have been contemplating (given AAM trends against bias) and the Met Office have been hinting at (allowing for some timing offset), while the ECM 00z was a pretty good effort.

Not sure how cleanly we'll get there though given some room for small disturbances to get involved this weekend for example.

[Frosty.]

Good looking GEFS 6z mean through next week too with a surge from the azores high / ridge bringing warmth and sunshine to much of the uk..this week looking increasingly summery too and potentially very thundery later this week, very warm / hot and sticky continental conditions developing from the south from midweek to the weekend.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

The outlook looks pretty warm and fairly dry in the south with the Azores high having enough influence though generally stationed in its usual position, that said there is scope for areas of low pressure to develop between the Azores and Iberia that could allow a break off ridge into Europe and allow a southerly flow to develop which is exactly what the outcome for the later half of this week has developed.

Enough to bring temperatures back into the high twenties across England. There are uncertainties regarding a shallow low moving towards the south Thursday night into Friday which could bring some thunderstorms and allow some fresher air to push in, this could occur quicker or slow or even not happen at all.

So beyond that

ECM ens

      

Pretty flat with a lot of fair and fairly warm weather in the south, some rain or showers at times in the north.

GEFs

      

The jet just that little further north and interestingly suggests another cut off feature west of Iberia which could allow another spell of very warm or hot weather to develop during next week.

I can't see a widespread UK wide heatwave developing at the moment, but a lot of good weather for the south in particular, nothing dreadful in the north though rain should be expectec at times.

 

[Andy Bown]

42 minutes ago, Weatherlad50 said:

it is amazing that one week ago the GFS was saying 10 degrees and rain  - now 24 or 25 degrees for Yorkshire and hot sunshine once the rain clears on Tuesday.

It isn't that amazing and is most certainly with precedent as a week to 10 days before the heatwave of 2 weeks ago the charts were full of lows and rain!

It is becoming a theme!

[TJS1998Tom]

1 hour ago, Frosty. said:

Impressive cape values on thursday, there could be severe thunderstorms as well as the heat and humidity with hot hazy sunshine around too. I love extreme weather..looks like this week could deliver, not just thurs but fri and possibly into the weekend too!

And of course Lincoln is just missing out on it lol 

[mushymanrob]

4 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

The NOAA indeed has shown a strong Azores High pattern for a while. And it hasn't been wrong. It shouldn't usually lead to a heatwave like the one we are now forecasting for the end of the week - but cut-off lows on the eastern flank can allow a small bump of heat to move from Europe back towards the UK against the overall mean flow. It's small chances. But it does show how even when the 500mb mean charts are generally correct, they can't always allow for the micro detail.

oh absolutely, trouble is, any desired heat will be short lived which i guess is better then no heat!

[Frosty.]

Looking beyond this week, there are some good signs of summery weather continuing on the GEFS 6z with high pressure and even plume potential as was the case with the 6z operational.

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

4 hours ago, Gordon Webb said:

of course GFS is known for overdoing it but whatever makes you happy

Makes me very happy

[Frosty.]

Following the warmer more humid potentially thundery spell, the Gfs 12z shows the weekend becoming cooler / fresher from the west but also drier and brighter across most areas but then next week looks cool and increasingly unsettled from the north-west.

Edited July 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[DTHFCJ]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Following the warmer more humid potentially thundery spell, the Gfs 12z shows the weekend becoming cooler / fresher from the west but also drier and brighter across most areas but then early next week looks cool and increasingly unsettled from the north-west.

yep looks like a small(ish) window of heat Frosty....

 

4 day warm spell...im not complaining though..;)

Edited July 3, 2017 by DTHFCJ

[Frosty.]

8 minutes ago, DTHFCJ said:

yep looks like a small(ish) window of heat Frosty....

 

4 day warm spell...im not complaing though..;)

I'm not complaining either..just enjoy whatever warmth we get..for those who like it warm / very warm..the 12z op will go down like a lead balloon for many but next week is not a done deal based on one operational run..more twists to come I'm sure!

Edited July 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[mb018538]

Talk about polar opposites! 6z and 12z poles apart! I think the 12z is nearer the mark though, similar to the UKMO run, though perhaps a bit more unsettled than it will end up. Let's see what ecm says.

[DTHFCJ]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I'm not complaining either..just enjoy whatever warmth we get..for those who like it warm / very warm..the 12z op will go down like a lead balloon for many but next week is not a done deal based on one operational run..more twists to come I'm sure!

true Frosty im sure many will enjoy the warmth but of course some wont,thats life,and your spot on the 12z is a kick in the gonadsand yes plenty more twists to come!

[Weatherlad50]

Just as a predicted earlier massive downgrade of the heatwave to a 96 hour warm spells. Unsettled and cool all next week. I never believe the gfs 06z

[Weatherlad50]

11 minutes ago, mb018538 said:

Talk about polar opposites! 6z and 12z poles apart! I think the 12z is nearer the mark though, similar to the UKMO run, though perhaps a bit more unsettled than it will end up. Let's see what ecm says.

This is hpwhy we shouldn't believe the GFS

[Weatherlad50]

Looking at the temps for next week it's going to be cold. It's 18 degrees now in Manchester it feels about 12

[Frosty.]

Let's see what the GEFS 12z shows before writing next week off..in fact let's see what the Ecm 12z and mean shows and then and Gfs 18z..and since it's still only Monday there is plenty of time for the models during the next few days to show a warmer spell next week..

[Chris.R]

On 28/06/2017 at 18:12, mb018538 said:

Pretty disappointing after on offer on the 12z, yesterday's improvements long gone to be replaced by more generally unsettled junk. Summer very much on hold.

 Loads of posts like this just last week, when will people ever learn! 

[Frosty.]

11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Loads of posts like this just last week, when will people ever learn! 

I think I was one of them too but to be fair the models last week didn't show any sign of a significant warm up from the south this week. 

Edited July 3, 2017 by Frosty.

[A Frayed Knot]

18 minutes ago, Weatherlad50 said:

Looking at the temps for next week it's going to be cold. It's 18 degrees now in Manchester it feels about 12

Cracking day here ' wall to wall sunshine and tep around 24c Feeling quite warm in the sun ' been a brilliant few weeks here in Wales for warm weather and sometimes hot ' last week was moosh but loving this summer of 2017 so far and much more nice weather to

[Chris.R]

2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think I was one of them too but to be fair the models last week didn't show any sign of a warm up from the south this week. 

 Your posts always try to be positive :-) which is great but yeah that's my point. If a warm period wasn't showing up last week for the next few days then who's to say one won't pop up for next week. It's the unfounded negativity that really gets on my nerves.

[Frosty.]

4 hours ago, Weatherlad50 said:

Lets see what the GFS 12Z shows.  Dont be suprised if there is a massive downgrade later. 

You were right, credit where credits due

[Scorcher]

40 minutes ago, Weatherlad50 said:

Looking at the temps for next week it's going to be cold. It's 18 degrees now in Manchester it feels about 12

What a silly post, it doesn't feel like 12C at all in Manchester today. And there haven't been any 'downgrades' to the heat, as the models were never showing anything spectacular anyway- certainly no more than 3 or 4 days have been shown at any point.