Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

[knocker]

No significant changes with the EPS this morning

[bluearmy]

Interesting that despite the Azores ridge waxing and waning being the main story of the summer thus far, we have failed to build a decent euro surface high as yet. The repeating cut off lows to our sw ensuring that we bask in some decent hot spells of several days. 

I decided to go to the alps for our summer hols this year - just had a feeling that first half august could be fairly unbearable- starting to think I may have made a good call. 

[Frosty.]

Signs from the GEFS 6z mean of some Azores ridging later next week for the south and the longer term signal, especially from the MO remains good for prolonged fine and warmer spells by the last third of July and into August!

 

[northwestsnow]

Lovely day today, models continue to underwhelm tho with the Atlantic just not letting go, hoping for some changes to reflect the superb meto updates soon..

[Mark wheeler]

4 hours ago, Frosty. said:

Signs from the GEFS 6z mean of some Azores ridging later next week for the south and the longer term signal, especially from the MO remains good for prolonged fine and warmer spells by the last third of July and into August!

 

Continuing with my 15th obsession I'm please to say this Azores influence is still apparent and I say it quietly ,  A little more prolonged . 

[Summer Sun]

Stunning end to GEM

[Singularity]

Just possibly, given 00z ECM and 12z GFS, the movement toward the longer-term Met Office outlooks has begun... still need to see a shift in EC Ens though.

Interesting to see an ex-tropical storm featuring in the GEM 12z after its debut in the ECM 00z. It could become a set back, or a means of boosting temps further upward and (unfortunately) adding yet more fuel to the European burner.

Or it may well not come our way at all - tropical exports are notoriously difficult to a pin down.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z is looking much better later next week as the azores high ridges in across southern uk, becoming warmer too, especially further south.

Edited July 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z doesn't end so well but on the plus side, it's warm..and its 10 days away!..anyway, a changeable and less warm / cooler first half to the week ahead followed by an improving picture further south..sound familiar?

 

 

Edited July 8, 2017 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

My eyes are drawn to the recurring pulses of heights to the NE on the GFS between D10 and D15. This could bring major changes - perhaps hotter weather to all as the Atlantic is blocked out, or even more unsettled weather if heights build so far north that the Atlantic gets in underneath. Watch watch watch!!

[knocker]

Tonight's EPS and NOAA anomalies are still indicating the vortex lobe ( Ryan Maue is calling it this even though it's the middle of summer) over N. Canada and associated trough being the major influence, along with the Azores, on the Atlantic and UK weather pattern. Thus no great variation on previous outlooks, westerly upper flow, doesn't translate to an Atlantic onslaught but more alternate unsettled/ settled periods as the warm and cold air phases with the usual north south bias in these situations. temps around normal perhaps slightly below. Looking further ahead the lobe still ever present but perhaps a weakening of the trough and the HP edging a little NE and thus becoming a little more influential with the temps picking up a tad.

Edited July 8, 2017 by knocker

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a changeable / unsettled and cooler first half to next week for all areas before a north / south split develops with the north continuing changeable whereas the south becomes warmer and largely fine for a time as the azores high ridges across southern areas which would be good news for next weekend but then it becomes changeable and less warm again from the north-west.

[knocker]

Following on from previous posts, including last night's anomaly snippet, this morning's gfs det, offers a good illustration of what I mean. The charts for 12z Saturday clearly show the Canadian vortex and  troughs emanating from it and the Azores ridging over the UK Also the maximum thermal gradient (jet Stream) which is still too strong and further south (thanks mainly to the vortex lobe) than preferable. This is just a frozen example but as the evolution of the run progresses the phasing of the cooler (relatively) and warmer air will change ensuring  alternate periods of settled/unsettled with the N/S bias. This is just my take on proceedings and not meant as a definitive utterance.

[knocker]

And onwards with nothing ominous lurking in the woodshed

Sidney is quite relaxed with the outlook

[knocker]

No change from the EPS anomaly this morning. Would be truly wonderful if this chart could be transported to December.

Edited July 9, 2017 by knocker

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, knocker said:

No change from the EPS anomaly this morning. Would be truly wonderful if this chart could be transported to December.

GEFS days 12 and 16 headed towards a stuffy back end to July 

        

 

Eps not on the same page as they maintain high anomolys in general across nw Europe. Not with the defined scandi upper ridge although I suspect the muted mean reflects the much larger number of eps runs making a mean trough/ridge much more difficult at that range. 

Both suites show that stuffy end to July currently likely 

Edited July 9, 2017 by bluearmy

[knocker]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

GEFS days 12 and 16 headed towards a stuffy back end to July 

        

 

Eps not on the same page as they maintain high anomolys in general across nw Europe. Not with the defined scandi upper ridge although I suspect the mean reflects the much larger number of eps runs making a mean trough/ridge much mor difficult at the range. 

Both suites show that stuffy end to July currently likely 

Yes I was just about to post that the EPS is indicating positive anomalies in the vicinity of the UK in the ext period so I'm still thinking the percentage play is the Azores being more influential. I suspect this might be along the lines of the METO update but of course I could be wrong about this.

[bluearmy]

 

the eps spreads to day 10 show most of the uncertainty back towards n Britain - this indicates the 00z suite promises a pretty fine 6/10 day period for the southern half of the uk 

Edited July 9, 2017 by bluearmy

[Tamara]

The south has been fortunate of late, as discussed below. However some rather more extensive short term dross to go through (mainly the first half of this coming week( before heading towards the second half of summer which looks set to shape up very encouragingly

Its the signals that drive the models  (the latter of which obviously includes all the anomaly charts, noaa etc) and the output over the days ahead should continue to increasingly reflect the improving tropical and extra tropical outlook against a background of continuing +AO profile across the arctic.

Heading from the middle to latter part of this month, the tropical convection sequencing is starting to advertise a similar higher atmospheric angular momentum forcing that faded in the last third of June.

Increased suppression of I/O activity and increased westerly wind inertia across the Pacific  should assist the Azores High re-adjusting eastwards much more decisively than the tentative waxing and waning of late - and deflect the jet stream further northwards

I think its highly likely we will see a similar type of ridging profile return that accompanied the heat leading up to mid June. As already suggested, that implies the jet stream re-aligned back to a more SW-NE profile with ultimately heights stretching across Western Europe into Scandinavia and warm air advection occurring more freely as low pressure ceases to pass just to our north on the flat axis seen in recent weeks and instead starts to orientate to our west and ride northwards against the heat ridges. This implies areas further north will, over time, stop missing out so much on more summer-like conditions

If I had been posting in my regional thread in the last few weeks,  bias emphasis enthusiasm would have been much more obvious than has been the case on here - which after all caters for national interests and associated objectivity. Truly lucky for us southerners that the Atlantic profile has been conducive to cut off lows highly flattering what otherwise would have been an infinitely less attractive set-up even down here - with the sort of nationwide write-off that was seen third to fourth week of June (immediately following the mid month heatwave) prevailing in a way that low angular momentum regimes much more usually do in the midst of summer.

Edited July 9, 2017 by Tamara

[shotski]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

No change from the EPS anomaly this morning. Would be truly wonderful if this chart could be transported to December.

Why ?...

[bluearmy]

1 minute ago, shotski said:

Why ?...

It's knocker's post. You have to ask? 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

2 minutes ago, shotski said:

Why ?...

Because you'd be able to build a snowman

[Frosty.]

It's noticeable how the much trumpeted potential change to warmer more settled weather which was originally anticipated mid July is slipping back and back, now it may arrive at the tail end of July and last into August but a flick through the GEFS 6z mean doesn't show any sign of it, just the usual waxing and waning of the azores high / ridge against low pressure systems to the nw / n which means the south looks better than the north but in a generally mobile atlantic pattern.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, shotski said:

Why ?...

Flooding, damaging winds, I assume

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, 40*C said:

Because you'd be able to build a snowman

On the contrary