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Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

phil nw.

By phil nw.
in Forecast Model Discussion

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

STand off developing!

GFS looks dreadful again tonight - unsettled and full of low pressure.

UKMO looks much better, clears the low away before pressure starts to build once more. Who will be right??!

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Scorcher Veteran

Scorcher

Posted
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
  • Location: Wilmslow, Cheshire
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Pretty disappointing 12z runs so far, next week looks very mixed when a few days ago it looked very settled!

The ukmo 12z @ T+144 doesn't look anything much to me with that alignment..pish poor.

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Not great but the GFS certainly isn't as bad as earlier runs- it holds the trough out west for longer and most places would have a warm/very warm day on Wednesday going by this latest run.

I don't see why that chart from the UKMO is all that bad? It's not great I know, but miles better than what the GFS has been showing.

The other positive of the UKMO is that the trough doesn't really go right across us as in this morning's run- bit of a backtrack starting maybe?

Edited by Scorcher
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

Not great but the GFS certainly isn't as bad as earlier runs- it holds the trough out west for longer and most places would have a warm/very warm day on Wednesday going by this latest run.

I don't see why that chart from the UKMO is all that bad? It's not great I know, but miles better than what the GFS has been showing.

The other positive of the UKMO is that the trough doesn't really go right across us as in this morning's run- bit of a backtrack starting maybe?

Overall it's downgraded the summery potential significantly compared to what was showing recently, it's just a bog standard changeable mess next week now.

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

UKMO certainly isn't as bad as it was this morning

UKMOPEU00_144_1.thumb.png.3f2a3a1383dc78146fb7b94031733191.pngUKMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.f758620fdb1a0ef460f3b046a404ce0e.png

Fairly standard stuff really a mix of sunshine and showers feeling warm in the sunshine

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draztik Rising Star

draztik

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, cheese said:

It's shown unsettled weather countless times only for it to never verify - so people have every reason to be sceptical. Indeed, if every time GFS showed unsettled weather actually came to fruition then I'm sure this summer would have been a total washout already. :rolleyes: 

Of course, it might be correct this time - no reason to totally discount it - but let's not pretend that you yourself don't have any vested interests. You always appear out of nowhere to bang on about unsettled weather in fantasy island. You did the same thing in July 2013 - so please drop this silly facade of being impartial and objective when you are anything but. 

Just post what I see, it's a shame others don't. Ignore me if you don't like what I say, it's quite simple really :)

as for tonight's GFS, it's a similar theme...from previous updates  

height anomaly days 5-10

IMG_3889.PNG

Edited by draztik
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Fourty Point Three Degrees Seasoned

Fourty Point Three Degrees

Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
Posted (edited)

Everywhere is coloured red all except for a small little yellow "spot light" which happens to find home and shine right over us.  SODS LAW 

cant make it up.png

Edited by 40*C
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Well good and bad news this evening.Gfs is horrific, no other way to describe it, however , ukmo is an improvement on the 00z run although it could go either way after 144.

The fact that ukmo has moved away from the gfs is a positive to cling to prior to ecm.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well good and bad news this evening.Gfs is horrific, no other way to describe it, however , ukmo is an improvement on the 00z run although it could go either way after 144.

The fact that ukmo has moved away from the gfs is a positive to cling to prior to ecm.

Hopefully the Ecm 12z will have wow factor instead of MEH :D

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 bad news this evening.Gfs is horrific, no other way to describe it

You know I haven't seen such a vile Gfs run since...The 6z..not going to post the charts as they are bad for your health.:bad::D

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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
29 minutes ago, draztik said:

Just post what I see, it's a shame others don't.

IMG_3889.PNG

sorry, i dont think thats true, most posts often have supporting charts. whether they become reality or not is a different matter.

anyway, id have thought the gfs is still overplaying the severity of the proposed trough that might yet not happen, or more likely happen in a less amplified manner.

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

You know I haven't seen such a vile Gfs run since...The 6z..not going to post the charts as they are bad for your health.:bad::D

How right you are, A weeks break is me from the 24th....I'm praying the ECM is all good and ongoing :wink:

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Gordon Webb Rising Star

Gordon Webb

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
  • Weather Preferences: Dull And Uninteresting Weather
  • Location: Bedworth , Warwickshire , 52.475°N 1.477°W
Posted
21 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Hopefully the Ecm 12z will have wow factor instead of MEH :D

just waiting for someone to say WOW that Ecm was MEH

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draztik Rising Star

draztik

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)
43 minutes ago, draztik said:

 height anomaly days 5-10

IMG_3889.PNG

GEFS support the op, and the GFS control is in there for added weight. (Days 5-10 height anom)

IMG_3891.PNG

Edited by draztik
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The thing is, if the trough next week stalls a little further west and disrupts, it would be a whole new ball game with the continental heat pump working wonders for the uk..small margins, big difference in surface conditions.

Edited by Frosty.
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
4 minutes ago, draztik said:

GEFS support the op, and the GFS control is in there for added weight. (Days 5-10 height anom)

IMG_3891.PNG

No doubt Gfs is sticking to its guns...although the ukmo has moved away from its earlier output so its all very very uncertain as it stands,ecm will be of upmost importance for warmth lovers this evening,with 2 weeks off work from next friday and fishing/camping with my son highlighted i hope one can excuse my meltdown this morning :-D

 

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Evening thunder Experienced

Evening thunder

Posted
  • Location: East Devon
  • Location: East Devon
Posted (edited)

I think, at this early stage that the ECM may be in the UKMO camp, using the toughing configuration and attachment to the main area of low heights over Greenland and the Canadian Arctic at t+120.

GFS/GEM camp:
GFSOPEU12_120_1.pngGEMOPEU12_120_1.png

UKMO/ECM camp

UKMOPEU12_120_1.pngECMOPEU12_120_1.png

Edit: actually somewhere in the middle by t+144, I'm hoping it will still settle down.

Funny how different the UKMO/ECM are at t+144 considering how close they were at t+120

UKMOPEU12_144_1.pngECMOPEU12_144_1.png

Anyway I'm not normally a regular poster in here but thought I'd post this, and felt like something needed pointing out in my other post above

Edited by Evening thunder
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the Ecm 12z so far, early next week looks fine and warm under high pressure and the heat and humidity strongly increase thru tues and peaking on wed with very good thunderstorm potential..then turning cooler and fresher from the west on thursday.

96_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850uk.png

120_thickuk.png

120_mslp850.png

144_mslp850uk.png

144_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Azores high waiting in the wings to ridge in again late next week..just a bit of green snot to get rid of first:D

Improving!

168_mslp500.png

192_mslp500.png

192_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
Posted
54 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The thing is, if the trough next week stalls a little further west and disrupts, it would be a whole new ball game with the continental heat pump working wonders for the uk..small margins, big difference in surface conditions.

Yes indeed!!

But with the ECM and UKMO both pushing the trough through by T144, chances of that happening now looking slim.

You can never discount the GFS, but the UK low scenario has, fortunately, dropped in odds as the day has gone on. Chances of a good weekend 22nd/23rd looking better now as ECM/UKMO let the Azores High ridge in. Will take a while to warm back up properly, though.

Throughout the chaos, it has to be said that the ECM mean chart has been reasonably consistent throughout this mad period, and the UKMO/ECM ops following it at the moment. 

Back to slightly more positive, then!!!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

Back to slightly more positive, then!!!

Yes, just having a bit of a wobble today like the models..positive frosty is returning gradually:D

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Ecm 12z is improving following the midweek blip..good to see its sticking 2 fingers up at the gfs!;)

Ends well with the azores high building in, similar to the 00z..phew

192_mslp500.png

216_mslp500.png

216_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp500.png

240_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

Some very good storm potential looming Tuesday into Wednesday, I think that will be more of the talking point, rather than the heat, although humidity will certainly make it feel uncomfortable. 

After that, it becomes a real mixed up 50/50 style picture, we could see further reloads of warm air, or a drop down of the troughing parking itself right over us. I personally don't mind that at this time of the year. That will give 18-20c temps with daytime storms and sunshine in between, so not all doom and gloom! 

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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted (edited)

And on that note back to sensible polite model discussion otherwise they will be hidden,

Thanks.

Edited by Polar Maritime
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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted (edited)

Hopefully trough held out west? improvement on GFS 12Z, but not far enough west yet, but maybe trend to keep trough to our west

gfs-0-192.png?12

Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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