Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[tight isobar]

Gfs really just wants a bog-standard partial ridge.

Its finding/or not' every angle not to' make of decent waa -for any notability to greenland.

And further' its a terrible evolution for any even half worthy cold. .

As it just wants everything shunted!!..

Yeah early in the run things looked on course..for ecm compare..

But again gfs having non of it.  

She just loves zonalility.

Not to say shes correct of course...by any means 

Edited November 22, 2017 by tight isobar

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Jonan92 said:

For me this run is quite awful, the high doesn't get north at all, I am not seeing any positive signs

 

00z

06z

Yes if you notice much earlier on in the run, the wedge of heights is thinner and the areas of troughing closer to engaging each other, this is how the collapse usually starts - think 2012 Dec, I don't want to be a doom monger but the warning signs are there........

[Decemberof2010]

So, within a few posts we get told it's a move closer to the euros, and another post saying it's an awful run. Very confusing for people like me who know a fraction of the things people on here do!

Love this site but it can be hard work at times

[The Beast From The East]

28 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Big change upstream on the 06z @96- much closer to the euros..

Is that a good or a bad thing?  Cheers.

[Methuselah]

Looks as if, as usual, the Operational is hunting for the final solution. Which, of course, it can never find. Except with one exception: T+0...Plenty of chopping and changing lies ahead methinks; it's still far too early to jettison the toy cabinet!

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Unleash the Beast said:

Is that a good or a bad thing?  Cheers.

It looked OK at 96 but its not gone the way of the Euro models- GFS is simply not interested in what ukmo/EC are seeing..

GFS6z is dreadful, theres no other way of describing it, the profile to the North west (Greenland) gets worse by the frame, its actually worse than the 00z run longer term.(for coldies)

Edited November 22, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Radiating Dendrite]

I think we will end up with a halfway house between the euros and the GFS. The ECM is prone to over amplifying, think we will see a mid atlantic ridge for a few days before it is collapsed from the top.

To be honest, we were never looking at serious cold anyway, -4c 850s and cold rain is as useless as 15c and sun! It is still a little too early in the season.

 

 

[Jonan92]

This is the second GFS run with a similar output, ECM usually overplays the heights, if GFS is still similar later on it won't be looking very good

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

So, within a few posts we get told it's a move closer to the euros, and another post saying it's an awful run. Very confusing for people like me who know a fraction of the things people on here do!

Love this site but it can be hard work at times

I wount get hung up on comments pal.the nhp is in such a state of flux the pros at the met will be struggling.bit like a soap the models atm,never know whats coming next! !!

[weirpig]

Just now, Jonan92 said:

This is the second GFS run with a similar output, ECM usually overplays the heights, if GFS is still similar later on it won't be looking very good

You may be right.  But id never back the Gfs against the euros  at this range.  as many have said the UKMO is usually the sober one of the three   id back that evolution over any at the moment.  i would expect a shift towards this in the ensembles.

[booferking]

Wouldn't worry to much about the GFS its been trailing behind them all week screaming and kicking dragging its heels.

I dont know why in here gets hung up on it,  its a cannon folder moved again towards the euros this run 96hr-120hr mark & caution dont look past this mark and if you you do take the rest of the run with a pinch of salt.

Colder air digging in earlier here.

Edited November 22, 2017 by booferking

[Met4Cast]

As usual the GFS is being a brat.

On the positive news, both the UKMO, ECM & EPC stuck with the colder, blocked theme. The GFS at the moment, is the fat lady trying with tonsillitis unable sing. 

Nothing to worry about here, all positive this morning.

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Wouldn't worry to much about the GFS its been trailing behind them all week screaming and kicking dragging its heels.

I dont know why in here gets hung up on it,  its a cannon folder moved again towards the euros this run 96hr-120hr mark & caution dont look past this mark and if you you do take the rest of the run with a pinch of salt.

Yes.

I think the gfs is scratching its own head atm.

 

[Spah1]

x1 GFS vs all the other models and

"W COUNTRY Latest (ECMWF) model ensembles for our region continue idea of a fairly protracted spell of below avg temps frm post-Thurs/rest Nov/early Dec, later w phases of NE flow. Hints of a shift to generally milder conditions into mid Dec (UKMO model) remain v tentative for now" Fergie's Tweet.

GFS to move towards the other models tonight?

[northwestsnow]

GFS6Z looks very very wet across the Balkans, not often you see a 995mb low in SE Europe.

[Decemberof2010]

I think the problem is, after the last few winters, whatever model is being the spoil sport seems to be correct! Be it GFS, ECM or UKMO. You would expect the GFS to slowly move towards the euros, however there's a sinking feeling it has it correct. I'd love the euros to be right though

[Derecho]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

As usual the GFS is being a brat.

On the positive news, both the UKMO, ECM & EPC stuck with the colder, blocked theme. The GFS at the moment, is the fat lady trying with tonsillitis unable sing. 

Nothing to worry about here, all positive this morning.

Don't get complacent, the GFS solution could easily happen if ridging towards Greenland is weak.

[karlos1983]

All the GFS 06z means is that we head into the 12z with a little less confidence in the medium range.

As has been stated in a few posts, up until around +96 it was looking "better", hopefully on the 12z that goes out to +120 or further. 

BUT, we don't have cross model agreement, so we proceed with caution. Can't discount the GFS 06z run.

Edited November 22, 2017 by karlos1983

[Frosty.]

i don't think the upcoming cold shot should just be glossed over which seems to be what's happening because some of the comments so far today are only focussing on next week onwards instead of what's right in front of us on friday and the weekend..if a prolonged cold spell is meant to be it will happen, if not, all the moaning in the world won't make any difference.. enjoy the ride.. it's not even winter yet!

Edited November 22, 2017 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

Just when you think model consensus is approaching the GFS pulls the plug!

The domino effect of failing to develop a single low over the ne USA downstream impacts how far north the ridge gets.

These differences starts between T96hrs and T120hrs, indeed the big 3 disagree on what happens but the UKMO still manages to run the energy ne not more east like the GFS.

We often see these issues when you have the jet flow merging, and then how much deepening occurs, in this instance you want the deepening because this causes a more ne track.

In the New Hampshire state forecast they had this to say:

In general, expecting a mid level longwave trough to linger
near our region Friday into Saturday. As previously note, this
is more of a split flow during this time. Majority of the
guidance merges this flow into a deeper mid level trough Sunday
into Monday. This mid level trough expected to finally move
over the Maritimes toward the middle of next week.

That on the face of it is positive but it seems as if we've overcome the trigger shortwave to now be met with another problem!

It's slightly concerning that given the timeframes the GFS 06hrs run hasn't even made a partial backtrack so we'll have to wait for this evening. I'd tend to have more faith in the ECM given this difference is between T96 and T120hrs and it generally handles these split flows merging better than the GFS upstream but we'll have to see tonight.

[Devonshire]

5 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:

So, within a few posts we get told it's a move closer to the euros, and another post saying it's an awful run. Very confusing for people like me who know a fraction of the things people on here do!

Love this site but it can be hard work at times

I can identify with this. I make sense of it in this way: some commentators sit back and look at trends in particular models as well as movements between the models to or away from each other and particular solutions while others fixate on the latest run - reading the former can be very illuminating, the latter less so. Last winter I discovered the 'ignore user' function (hover over a poster's info) - I soon moved up to 9 pages of ignored users!! It makes for a much less frustrating read - and much more informative when something is 'on the cards' and the forum comes alight.  (I also wonder if mods might consider adding a metric to posters' info-panels beside their posts, indicating how many members ignore them! - maybe a step too far?! - please feel free to 'ignore' me!)

In terms of what the models are doing at the moment, as has been pointed out, they have been struggling to 'sniff out' a strongly-likely and consistent solution going forward - something they will try to do even when there is no such thing, i.e., when there is weak 'momentum' in the atmosphere in our neck of the woods (for want of a more technical term) and things really could go one of very many ways. Anyway, that's how I make sense of frustrating patterns of comments.

[karyo]

13 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I think we will end up with a halfway house between the euros and the GFS. The ECM is prone to over amplifying, think we will see a mid atlantic ridge for a few days before it is collapsed from the top.

To be honest, we were never looking at serious cold anyway, -4c 850s and cold rain is as useless as 15c and sun! It is still a little too early in the season.

 

 

No, we need the chill to prepare the ground for any December falls of snow. If we continue to see days in double figures then forget it.

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Just when you think model consensus is approaching the GFS pulls the plug!

The domino effect of failing to develop a single low over the ne USA downstream impacts how far north the ridge gets.

These differences starts between T96hrs and T120hrs, indeed the big 3 disagree on what happens but the UKMO still manages to run the energy ne not more east like the GFS.

We often see these issues when you have the jet flow merging, and then how much deepening occurs, in this instance you want the deepening because this causes a more ne track.

In the New Hampshire state forecast they had this to say:

In general, expecting a mid level longwave trough to linger
near our region Friday into Saturday. As previously note, this
is more of a split flow during this time. Majority of the
guidance merges this flow into a deeper mid level trough Sunday
into Monday. This mid level trough expected to finally move
over the Maritimes toward the middle of next week.

That on the face of it is positive but it seems as if we've overcome the trigger shortwave to now be met with another problem!

It's slightly concerning that given the timeframes the GFS 06hrs run hasn't even made a partial backtrack so we'll have to wait for this evening. I'd tend to have more faith in the ECM given this difference is between T96 and T120hrs and it generally handles these split flows merging better than the GFS upstream but we'll have to see tonight.

Hopefully Nick- i think GFS 6z made a move towards euro at 96 but then completely imploded with too much energy not allowing the high to get far enough north.

12zs will make things more clear hopefully.

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Hopefully Nick- i think GFS 6z made a move towards euro at 96 but then completely imploded with too much energy not allowing the high to get far enough north.

12zs will make things more clear hopefully.

And this is key to me! the fact  that it has  moved towards  the  Euro's early doors and not in lala land! - I'm comfortable with that to be frank and  I think we all should be.. Good to be  back gang!

[Met4Cast]

22 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Don't get complacent, the GFS solution could easily happen if ridging towards Greenland is weak.

True, I suppose we have seen many times the GFS pick up a new solution and the others do a massive climbdown the same day.