Model Output Discussion 01/09/17

[knocker]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I'm beginning to lose my mojo on this particular phase of potential wintry conditions. 

Could well be back before winter officially ends then ba

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Unless someone with a license has tweeted that chart then you could get weather.us in a bit of bother by posting that  mulzy. 

Ukmo trying to play devils advocate but in general the direction of travel is one where the jet will likely undercut mid Atlantic ridges and feed into a euro torugh. Almost the holy grail of winter patterns - however in November (and certainly next couple weeks), drawing in cold enough undercutting air to produce snowfall will be a struggle. the trend is to push the ridging further east to cover the uk and given the propensity for the nwp to overstate European low heights, I'm beginning to lose my mojo on this particular phase of potential wintry conditions. 

Yes i think thats a balanced post Blue.

Although those with altitude in the north may well get some wintry suprises during the next few weeks.For lowland southern Britain tho its mainly dry and cold, and thats not to be sniffed at.

[blizzard81]

As I intimated last night. Those looking for a late Nov 2010, come back in 100 years. Late November very rarely gives any snowfall at all to lowland Britain. I am just very happy to see something much more seasonal in the models. Not a relentless barrage of gales and rain that we usually suffer at this time of year. 

[mulzy]

1 hour ago, mulzy said:

The extended (11-15 day) eps definitely look better than last night's set with a stronger signal showing higher than normal heights to the north west and lower than normal heights to the east/south east.

As per bluearmy's post, can one of the mods remove the chart please?

Edited November 11, 2017 by Polar Maritime
Done Mulzy ☺

[karlos1983]

32 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended (right) isn't a great deal different from t144 (left)

I’d say quite a difference, look at the negative tilt on the low at 168 compared to 144.

[bluearmy]

27 minutes ago, knocker said:

Could well be back before winter officially ends then ba

Probably before it officially starts !!!!!!

[SMU]

Morning All

ECM a pretty good run for UK cold- debilt ensembles not really applicable -

However still that nagging doubt around UKMO run

either way though very seasonal weather from all parties!

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning All

ECM a pretty good run for UK cold- debilt ensembles not really applicable -

However still that nagging doubt around UKMO run

either way though very seasonal weather from all parties!

Yes, no sinister Atlantic zonal muck lurking in the woodshed

in fact, hopefully some cold foggy/frosty weather to usher in the christmas markets- 

ukmet looks ok to me steve-

cold, esp at night for much of blighty

I'm still seeing the chance of a scandy high on ukmet -

Edited November 11, 2017 by northwestsnow

[carinthian]

Picture taken yesterday at 1800m . This is the A1 run down into the Lungau Valley. Firstly our update this morning from high spatial resolution of 1x1km analysis ( basically for the village boundary ) still shows 16cm of fresh snowfall during the period ending 9am on Monday. However with lots of moisture in the flow local amounts will be much higher on  mountains upwind , so nearby Obertauren resort is forecast 30cm at the same height.

Looking at the shorter term models, Arpege has performed well all this week with its track of the frontal wave crossing Southern Britain. This heading to the Alps for tomorrow. Its more southerly track helps to limit warm extend in its wake, which is good for us here.  Longer term, looks like GFS comes on board with ECM. UKMO seems to delay a bit longer the push of the Polar trough into Western Europe but from what our portal service experts think, that is the likely outcome. Will get a update later today from their analysis and model thoughts.

Edited November 11, 2017 by carinthian

[booferking]

This run is more amplified nice upgrade with heights more in to Greenland compared to earlier run,

Edited November 11, 2017 by booferking

[northwestsnow]

6Z maintains the colder NW winds theme through next weekend with potential for heavy snow showers for elevated part of NW Britain

Edited November 11, 2017 by northwestsnow

[The PIT]

Pretty good agreement between the GFS and ECM as far out as T168. Nothing massively cold but mostly below average. UKMO the odd one out and yet it might be right as the past has shown when one model went off on it's own. However UKMO has been performing nearly on par with the ecm recently so you can't discount it.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Much better snow potential for next weekend on the 6z.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Much better snow potential for next weekend on the 6z.

 

Yes, a cold PM flow - certainly i would expect your location to see some of the white stuff next weekend PM- exciting run for the highlighted regions- Scotland looks very cold!

[Polar Maritime]

Yes with cold enough uppers to ^ Blizzards for the Highlands also..The GFS has model'd this sceario very consistently so far.

A continued cold N/N/E flow into the run..

Edited November 11, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

Being a coldie I'm happy with the Ecm / Gfs 00z / 6z and I'm hoping Exeter carry on with the wintry extended signal..it's about time coldies had something to smile about, it's especially encouraging that we are seeing wintry charts with still almost 3 weeks to go until the meteorological winter begins.!

[Geordiesnow]

10 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Being a coldie I'm happy with the Ecm / Gfs 00z / 6z and I'm hoping Exeter carry on with the wintry extended signal..it's about time coldies had something to smile about, it's especially encouraging that we are seeing wintry charts with still almost 3 weeks to go until the meteorological winter begins.!

Yep, potentially a fairly chilly outlook is potentially on the cards and whilst it does not particularly snowy, its fairly satisfying to start off with thats for sure.

Does seem to be hints though we may see the PV trying to gain strength across the Arctic, I still don't think that be the worse thing to happen as this may eventually push any height rises to lower latitudes but it will also help to develop colder upper air temps.

[blizzard81]

Well all I can say is if there are any coldies who are disappointed with this morning's output, they need to book a one way ticket to Canada. Great synoptics for the time of year. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

I’d say quite a difference, look at the negative tilt on the low at 168 compared to 144.

I'm afraid I can't see any negative tilt on any of those troughs or low centres - most are neutral or slightly positive to me.

[swfc]

One thing which remains be it way out in the 6Z is the lack of pv towards the esb.this stops or hopefully stops cyclogenics becoming a major problem via the Atlantic. Good autumn weather and further out not to sniffed at synoptics that may be bring a good start to winter 

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm afraid I can't see any negative tilt on any of those troughs or low centres - most are neutral or slightly positive to me.

Given the isolated nature of the ukmo runs at the moment I doubt it’s worth over analysing a day 7 chart !!

[karlos1983]

10 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm afraid I can't see any negative tilt on any of those troughs or low centres - most are neutral or slightly positive to me.

Allow me to demonstrate

positive tilt 144

negative tilt 168

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

6 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Allow me to demonstrate

positive tilt 144

negative tilt 168

I thought you were referring to the first chart output!

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I thought you were referring to the first chart output!

No worries. It was in relation to saying there was no difference from the 144 chart to the 168 chart. But imo that’s quite a big difference. 

[karlos1983]

Still a lot of spread for my liking, although majority do tend to be on the cool side rather than mild from the 18th onward. Would like to see a bigger majority over the next few sets.