Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[bobbydog]

@Steve Murr i've been watching developments in the strat/trop over the past few weeks and noticed striking similarities to 1962 in the developing patterns. i came to the conclusion (using simple comparison methods, my limited technical knowledge and drawing on the knowledge of others like yourself) that we might be on the verge of a similar winter to that one but on a timescale of around ten days later, partly on the basis that the strat/trop disconnect couldn't last indefinitely- something had to give sooner or later. as of now, if the zonal winds crash as forecast, it looks like it could actually be sooner!

happy days!

(oh, and i might have to get my snow tyres before xmas!)

[ArHu3]

15 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

@Steve Murr i've been watching developments in the strat/trop over the past few weeks and noticed striking similarities to 1962 in the developing patterns. i came to the conclusion (using simple comparison methods, my limited technical knowledge and drawing on the knowledge of others like yourself) that we might be on the verge of a similar winter to that one but on a timescale of around ten days later, partly on the basis that the strat/trop disconnect couldn't last indefinitely- something had to give sooner or later. as of now, if the zonal winds crash as forecast, it looks like it could actually be sooner!

happy days!

(oh, and i might have to get my snow tyres before xmas!)

62-63 was enso neutral though 

[bobbydog]

13 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

62-63 was enso neutral though 

i'm pretty sure it was weak la nina, could be wrong though but i read the stats recently somewhere. i'll have another look.

edit- 1962 N-D-J was weak -0.4

Edited November 25, 2017 by bobbydog

[Singularity]

Just now, bobbydog said:

i'm pretty sure it was weak la nina, could be wrong though but i read the stats recently somewhere. i'll have another look.

ONI reads neutral, but it had negative anomalies for the eastern measuring regions countered by near-neutral in the western ones. Kind of like this year, but not as far negative in the east.

[Midlands Ice Age]

54 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

@Steve Murr i've been watching developments in the strat/trop over the past few weeks and noticed striking similarities to 1962 in the developing patterns. i came to the conclusion (using simple comparison methods, my limited technical knowledge and drawing on the knowledge of others like yourself) that we might be on the verge of a similar winter to that one but on a timescale of around ten days later, partly on the basis that the strat/trop disconnect couldn't last indefinitely- something had to give sooner or later. as of now, if the zonal winds crash as forecast, it looks like it could actually be sooner!

happy days!

(oh, and i might have to get my snow tyres before xmas!)

 

I too have noticed a similarity to 62   - in the actual weather.

I was around in those days and well remember from the start of October that we had alternating periods of  cool and warm weather as troughs and ridges crossed the country, until at the start of December the weather started to turn cooler as the ridges became more pronounced. (cf the last 2-3 weeks)

This culminated in a block forming from one of the ridges around the second week of December. It was centered just over and around the west coast of Scotland. It turned the weather very cool and foggy for a number of days (I remember recording -10C with the lowest at -12C and the weather turned colder during the day with frosts not clearing.

Then 2 things happened -

1 The Atlantic block was joined up with the ScRuss block which had pushed westward, and it then formed  the all powerful high and meged to between Scotland and Norway.

2) The southern arm of the Atlantic fired up over and just before Xmas and by Boxing day we had developed  a fully fledged blizzard in the south west and central areas, that lasted 36 hours.

The 'low' went under the newly refreshed  block and a fully fledged easterly ensued with the results that we all know. With constant reloads as the block then began regression into the North Atlantic.

At the time I was an interested weather enthusiast, and all we had was the BBC daily 6 o clock news weather forecast to see what was happening.

I have since looked at the historical data now recreated and it pretty well sums up my memories.

So, this year (so far) is following a similar fashion, with blocks becoming more frequent in the Atlantic after a period of constant cut and thrust between the weather systems, some models are now suggesting that the block may set up in the area to the west of Scotland, and in some models the Russian high seems to be 'on the move'.

Also we are starting to see the southern arm of the jet beginning to be fed by the jet splitting over North America. I see that NS has just reported that this is the favoured option of the US Agencies at the moment.

So we will see. 

There are a lot of similarities at the ground level. I have and had  no idea about the Strat or even what was going on in the Pacific, at the time.

All I am saying is that I too have noticed similarities.

Will we strike lucky again.... I have my doubts, but lightening can strike twice, however unlikely.

 MIA

 

Edited November 25, 2017 by Midlands Ice Age

[ArHu3]

6 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

I too have noticed a similarity to 62   - in the actual weather.

I was around in those days and well remember from the start of October that we had alternating periods of  cool and warm weather as troughs and ridges crossed the country, until at the start of December the weather started to turn cooler as the ridges became more pronounced. (cf the last 2-3 weeks)

This culminated in a block forming from one of the ridges around the second week of December. It was centered just over and around the west coast of Scotland. It turned the weather very cool and foggy for a number of days (I remember recording -10C with the lowest at -12C and the weather turned colder during the day with frosts not clearing.

Then 2 things happened -

1 The Atlantic block was joined up with the ScRuss block which had pushed westward, and it then formed  the all powerful high and meged to between Scotland and Norway.

2) The southern arm of the Atlantic fired up over and just before Xmas and by Boxing day we had wound a fully fledged blizzard in the south west and central areas, that lasted 36 hours.

The 'low' went under the newly refreshed  block and a fully fledged easterly ensued with the results that we all know. With constant reloads as the block then began regression into the North Atlantic.

At the time I was an interested weather enthusiast, and all we had was the BBC daily 6 o clock news weather forecast to see what was happening.

I have since looked at the historical data now recreated and it pretty well sums up my memories.

So, this year (so far) is following a similar fashion, with blocks becoming more frequent in the Atlantic after a period of constant cut and thrust between the weather systems, some models are now suggesting that the block may set up in the area to the west of Scotland, and in some models the Russian high seems to be 'on the move'.

Also we are starting to see the southern arm of the jet beginning to be fed by the jet splitting over North America. I see that NS has just reported that this is the favoured option of the US Agencies at the moment.

So we will see. 

There are a lot of similarities at the ground level. I have and had  no idea about the Strat or even what was going on in the Pacific, at the time.

All I am saying is that I too have noticed similarities.

Will we strike lucky again.... I have my doubts, but lightening can strike twice, however unlikely.

 MIA

 

You can check historic data here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php

[Midlands Ice Age]

16 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

You can check historic data here: http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/archives/archives.php

ArH..

I have a while ago checked, thanks for the link. 

We are sure have an interesting situation coming up with many options apparently on the table.

The one for the block being centred around the UK is not the favourite of most people (possibly influenced by 2010), but the Russ North Atlantic influence is one that I believe would be required if you want a real long term winter blast this year. That is why I keep looking for the block to be cemntred somewhere to the north of the UK. Too far south (or middle) and I suspect it would come under pressure and sink.

Also of notewas that in 63 the Jet was screaming far North over Svalbard for long periods, going over the 'top' of our block.  The southern arm came and went a bit. Presumably this was caused by the PV being displaced to East Siberia that year.

 I have seen recreations of the atmospheric conditions of the real cold winters like 1673 and 1733 and they all had the PV well displaced away from our side of the globe, presumably by a block somewhere over northern Europe, as they all refer to biting east winds.

Thinking about the 'southern arm', was the winter of  1947.... (apparently where an SSW formed a Scandi at the end of Jan), when the jet was screaming away into the southern arm. We ended up with a whole series of blizzards over the UK, I can just remember the impacts as we had snow up our window sills and drifts the size of houses.

I guess  that is when I became interested in all things weather!

I would like to think that this year, we could have a few more converts!!

MIA

 

[Dorsetbred]

9 minutes ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

Thinking about the 'southern arm', was the winter of  1947.... (apparently where an SSW formed a Scandi at the end of Jan), when the jet was screaming away into the southern arm. We ended up with a whole series of blizzards over the UK, I can just remember the impacts as we had snow up our window sills and drifts the size of houses.

MIA

 

Interesting you say that as my mum was born in Ossett (Leeds) and would always tell me about the winter of '47, and how they dug tunnels through the snow to get out as the snow was roof high in places. Unimaginable in these times, but I will always remember her tales of quite what the winter of '47 dealt.

[Midlands Ice Age]

3 minutes ago, Dorsetbred said:

Interesting you say that as my mum was born in Ossett (Leeds) and would always tell me about the winter of '47, and how they dug tunnels through the snow to get out as the snow was roof high in places. Unimaginable in these times, but I will always remember her tales of quite what the winter of '47 dealt.

Dorsetbred...

 I was only 3 at the time.......

I was born at  a village in North Nottinghamshire, by the Lincolnshire border.. I can remember my 'childminder' saying 'just look at that snow' as it suddenly went black for about the 5th time that day.  

My parents ran the local stores and PO. The village was cut off for 3 weeks (older kids and siblings  were at home). I spent all my time being on a sledge being pulled down the local hill. The snow was over the hedgerows and the men were using bare hands and tractors to help get the provisions through to the shop.

I do wonder how  modern society would cope with a winter quite like it? 

 I know they will cope, but it will come as a shock to many people to have to fend for themselves..  

Ah the memories... Sorry to bore you all!

MIA 

[Derecho]

Interesting read Steve, I hope your onto something re. the zonal wind reversal, its a shame we only have a small sample size with the QBO.

Easterly phases definitely seem to be associated with a weak polar vortex and the weaker jet due to low arctic sea ice extent also has a physical basis. Also important I think are SSTs the North Atlantic cold blob has been a regular feature in the last few winters but seems weaker this year.

Then we have variations in ocean circulation and in the stratosphere which are less well understood as well as solar activity.

The NAO has been pretty volatile in recent years, is it becoming more sensitive to external influences?

Compared to the last few years things appear to be a lot more favourable for a colder winter this year, the QBO especially.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Saw some chatter earlier over whether or not it is a Canadian warming which is showing up in the modelling...

The GFS 12z shows a CW

[Weather-history]

Seen this tweet by Ed Vallee? Look at that anomaly around Greenland for two weeks on Sunday by ECM. How often do you see an anomaly like that at 360hr as an ensemble mean.

 

[snowking]

On 17/09/2017 at 12:57, snowking said:

I haven't had much of a chance to do this for the last couple of years but I wanted to do a very crude early look at some analogue years based upon current projections for teleconnections. The three I've looked at for now are QBO, ENSO and Solar cycle progression.

For all three there is hardly a scientific methodology behind it. For QBO I took the closest matching profiles I could at 50mb (with some attention paid to 30/70mb either side of this too) - the numbers outside of brackets are the closer years I could find, the ones in brackets possess similar-ish profiles but not quite as good as the other years. This gives us a bit more data to potentially play with though. For ENSO, pretty similar to above in terms of looking at the annual profile, but here the years in brackets are years in which we remained ENSO neutral, albeit slightly negatively, where as the years outside of brackets are winters which dipped down into weak-ish La Nina.

Finally, solar cycle progression is by far the crudest of the measures. I've taken the years in the declining phase of the solar cycle with an annual smoothed sunspot number of approximately 40-50 - really not entirely scientific but within the constraints of time it should give us some idea for now.

So here were the years I picked out for each:

QBO (Close but not exact profile matches)

1962,(1965),(1972),(1974),1976,(1979),1981,(1986),2000,2014

ENSO (remained neutral rather than weak La Nina)

1954,(1961),(1962),1967,(1978),(1981),1984,1995,(2001),(2005),2007,(2012)

Solar Cycle Stage

1952,1962,1974,1984,1994,2005

The years with at least 2 'matches' are:

1962, 1974, 1981, 2005

 

I am not going to be issuing any sort of forecast based upon this very crude measure, but hopefully it's something just to get a little bit of a conversation going as we head towards the business end of the weather year - if I can get a bit more time soon then I'll try and add in some composite plots.

 

 

22 hours ago, bobbydog said:

@Steve Murr i've been watching developments in the strat/trop over the past few weeks and noticed striking similarities to 1962 in the developing patterns. i came to the conclusion (using simple comparison methods, my limited technical knowledge and drawing on the knowledge of others like yourself) that we might be on the verge of a similar winter to that one but on a timescale of around ten days later

I'm starting to agree with your sentiment more and more, as per my original post quoted above from earlier in the autumn 

At that stage the tendency is always to underplay the 1962 comparison for obvious reasons related to the deleriun such comparisons could create on this humble forum. But purely from the various global (and beyond) indexes I looked at, it was one of the better matches.

I'm beginning to think more and more that we might see some similar favourable patterns to that season, only not as extreme in scale, through the next few months.

What I'm not so sure about is whether, as per Steve's suggestion this becomes a front loaded season similar to 2010 - I have a suspicion we will actually see more action through Jan and Feb than December in terms of white gold. But that at this stage is purely speculation and guess work - and I think most of us would be happy with either possibility

[ArHu3]

34 minutes ago, snowking said:

 

I'm starting to agree with your sentiment more and more, as per my original post quoted above from earlier in the autumn 

At that stage the tendency is always to underplay the 1962 comparison for obvious reasons related to the deleriun such comparisons could create on this humble forum. But purely from the various global (and beyond) indexes I looked at, it was one of the better matches.

I'm beginning to think more and more that we might see some similar favourable patterns to that season, only not as extreme in scale, through the next few months.

What I'm not so sure about is whether, as per Steve's suggestion this becomes a front loaded season similar to 2010 - I have a suspicion we will actually see more action through Jan and Feb than December in terms of white gold. But that at this stage is purely speculation and guess work - and I think most of us would be happy with either possibility

Another global driver you might want to look at is Pdo, pacific decadal oscillation. When I see the historic pdo it always strikes me as to how well it correlates with historic temperatures in Europe 

 

Edited November 26, 2017 by ArHu3

[bobbydog]

42 minutes ago, snowking said:

 

I'm starting to agree with your sentiment more and more, as per my original post quoted above from earlier in the autumn 

At that stage the tendency is always to underplay the 1962 comparison for obvious reasons related to the deleriun such comparisons could create on this humble forum. But purely from the various global (and beyond) indexes I looked at, it was one of the better matches.

I'm beginning to think more and more that we might see some similar favourable patterns to that season, only not as extreme in scale, through the next few months.

What I'm not so sure about is whether, as per Steve's suggestion this becomes a front loaded season similar to 2010 - I have a suspicion we will actually see more action through Jan and Feb than December in terms of white gold. But that at this stage is purely speculation and guess work - and I think most of us would be happy with either possibility

regarding the strat, i do think that though we are seeing the beginnings of an attempt at warming, it seems to be progressing slower than it appeared to at first. however, the signal is gradually getting stronger. yesterday's apparent 'crash' of zonal winds is less pronounced. as it stands, i think we could see a minor canadian warming in early december. here's the good bit- that is exactly what happened in 1962. (though information is pretty sparse on that) there was then a major warming in january which is well documented.

[Methuselah]

I was living the Kent from 1969 to 1970, and I think I remember one or two NW'erly/N'erly blasts (with snow) at or around the start of December '69...?

Not sure as to whether that's relevant to this winter, but winter 1970, though not excessively cold, did have a few notable snow events, most of which (if my memory serves?) were caused by secondary depressions/frontal waves tracking WNW-ESE, following outbreaks of Polar Maritime air?

Here's hoping, I suppose!

[Interitus]

On 11/25/2017 at 12:56, Steve Murr said:

So whats infront of then ?

A troposheric induced stratospheric splitting event - the net being a massive deceleration of the zonal wind lagged about 10-15 days later.

I would go with our splitting event to be dated 29th NOVEMBER !!!!

 

The vortex may split subsequently, but at the moment what is being modelled is a vortex displacement.

[Snowyowl9]

There was a coldish N-ly end of November 1969.

[SMU]

32 minutes ago, Interitus said:

The vortex may split subsequently, but at the moment what is being modelled is a vortex displacement.

Theres a split @30MB

[Interitus]

4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Theres a split @30MB

Which model/timestep?

It is nothing significant other than indicating the tropospheric ridging which leads to this -

[summer blizzard]

I'll still await judgement however i am starting to become very optimistic about this winter given that potentially i actually think there are stronger signals for a cold Jan and March than now. 

Edited November 26, 2017 by summer blizzard

[Midlands Ice Age]

On ‎25‎/‎11‎/‎2017 at 14:32, Midlands Ice Age said:

 

I too have noticed a similarity to 62   - in the actual weather.

I was around in those days and well remember from the start of October that we had alternating periods of  cool and warm weather as troughs and ridges crossed the country, until at the start of December the weather started to turn cooler as the ridges became more pronounced. (cf the last 2-3 weeks)

This culminated in a block forming from one of the ridges around the second week of December. It was centered just over and around the west coast of Scotland. It turned the weather very cool and foggy for a number of days (I remember recording -10C with the lowest at -12C and the weather turned colder during the day with frosts not clearing.

Then 2 things happened -

1 The Atlantic block was joined up with the ScRuss block which had pushed westward, and it then formed  the all powerful high and meged to between Scotland and Norway.

2) The southern arm of the Atlantic fired up over and just before Xmas and by Boxing day we had developed  a fully fledged blizzard in the south west and central areas, that lasted 36 hours.

The 'low' went under the newly refreshed  block and a fully fledged easterly ensued with the results that we all know. With constant reloads as the block then began regression into the North Atlantic.

At the time I was an interested weather enthusiast, and all we had was the BBC daily 6 o clock news weather forecast to see what was happening.

I have since looked at the historical data now recreated and it pretty well sums up my memories.

So, this year (so far) is following a similar fashion, with blocks becoming more frequent in the Atlantic after a period of constant cut and thrust between the weather systems, some models are now suggesting that the block may set up in the area to the west of Scotland, and in some models the Russian high seems to be 'on the move'.

Also we are starting to see the southern arm of the jet beginning to be fed by the jet splitting over North America. I see that NS has just reported that this is the favoured option of the US Agencies at the moment.

So we will see. 

There are a lot of similarities at the ground level. I have and had  no idea about the Strat or even what was going on in the Pacific, at the time.

All I am saying is that I too have noticed similarities.

Will we strike lucky again.... I have my doubts, but lightening can strike twice, however unlikely.

 MIA

 

 

On ‎25‎/‎11‎/‎2017 at 15:21, Midlands Ice Age said:

ArH..

I have a while ago checked, thanks for the link. 

We are sure have an interesting situation coming up with many options apparently on the table.

The one for the block being centred around the UK is not the favourite of most people (possibly influenced by 2010), but the Russ North Atlantic influence is one that I believe would be required if you want a real long term winter blast this year. That is why I keep looking for the block to be cemntred somewhere to the north of the UK. Too far south (or middle) and I suspect it would come under pressure and sink.

Also of notewas that in 63 the Jet was screaming far North over Svalbard for long periods, going over the 'top' of our block.  The southern arm came and went a bit. Presumably this was caused by the PV being displaced to East Siberia that year.

 I have seen recreations of the atmospheric conditions of the real cold winters like 1673 and 1733 and they all had the PV well displaced away from our side of the globe, presumably by a block somewhere over northern Europe, as they all refer to biting east winds.

Thinking about the 'southern arm', was the winter of  1947.... (apparently where an SSW formed a Scandi at the end of Jan), when the jet was screaming away into the southern arm. We ended up with a whole series of blizzards over the UK, I can just remember the impacts as we had snow up our window sills and drifts the size of houses.

I guess  that is when I became interested in all things weather!

I would like to think that this year, we could have a few more converts!!

MIA

 

It couldn't happen again. Could it?

The charts being produced by GFS and ECM look to be heading into exactly the same position I was describing above...

Met Office needs to come on board tomorrow.  

If it gets this far,  all we will need is a bit more oomph into the southern jet (the MO may indeed do this if it backtracks from sending the low north!)...

I think we would be locked into cold for at least 4 weeks and possibly till spring.

 

We could then be really on the threshold of something special .

 MIA

[Summer Sun]

Update for Ian F for winter

 

[Sky Full]

Not sure where to post this but...  I have been looking at the incidence of snowy weather in each decade from the 1940s to the present just to see how badly or otherwise we are really doing compared to years ago.  This is a table showing the number and severity of snowy years in each decade from 1940 onwards (data courtesy of http://www.neforum2.co.uk/ferryhillweather/bonacina.html):

	Number of years the UK had snow:
	Little Snow	Average Snow	Snowy Year	Very Snowy Year	Points Total
1930S	2	4	4	0
Points	2	8	12	0	22
1940S	4	1	4	1     (1946/47)
Points	4	2	12	4	22
1950s	3	3	4	0
Points	3	6	12	0	21
1960s	3	4	2	1     (1962/62)
Points	3	6	6	4	19
1970s	6	1	2	1     (1978/79)
Points	6	2	6	4	18
1980s	4	4	2	0
Points	4	8	6	0	18
1990s	8	2	1	0
Points	8	4	3	0	15
2000s	6	4	0	0
Points	6	8	0	0	14
2010s	4	2	1	1      (2009/10)
Points	4	4	3	4	15

(Points scored per year:   Little Snow = 1pt,  Average Snow = 2pt,  Snowy Year = 3pt,  Very Snowy Year = 4pt)

On this basis it is clear that we have been getting progressively fewer snowy years in each decade and that the 2000s were easily the least snowy decade since 1930.  However, the 2010s have already surpassed the 2000s for snow excluding this winter (which looks promising!).   As we still have two more winters to go there is every chance that the 2010s will compare favourably with the best that the 1960s and 70s had to offer especially if this winter turns out to be ‘very snowy’!   Anyway, its interesting to see how the climate appears to be affecting our winters in respect of snowfall….

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Could the volcanic eruption at Bali have an effect on the upcoming winter ?