Winter 2017 2018 General Discussion

[syed2878]

Hi folks this might be a bit to earlly but what are your thoughts and hopes for winter 2017-2018?

[Christopher]

Repeat of 2009 for me would be perfect

[Seasonality]

Oh no! The madness! It begins! 

But seriously, my first thoughts are as follows. As far back as end of August and start of September I saw folks already writing off winter as being another mild one. As we all know, it is not possible with modern science to forecast the weather so far out with any degree of certainty, especially for a long narrow island on the western edge of a continental land mass. That isn't to take anything away from long range forecasters let me hasten to add. The uncertainty of course is what makes this whole weather watching malarkey so much fun!

What I'd hope for for folk in the UK is two or three good widespread snow events, the South included, and plenty of nice frosty weather. My advice for people keeping their sanity is to ignore all those day 10 ecm charts that show snowmageddon, treat them as entertainment only. Use the ignore button if you think someone is on the wind up. It should all be good natured fun and reasoned debate here. Lastly, the weather will do what it will. The NWP output is not a set in stone prediction but a forecast based on available data at the time the model is run. Looking forward to all the fun of the season!

[Rich_Clements]

A little more of the white stuff would be good this year. We had some brief cold snaps early part of last winter which seemed to fizzle out.

[MP-R]

Absolutely Seasonality! The last winter was great for frost and fog with lots of high pressure, but snow was very scarce.

[Ravelin]

It's going to be a stonker of a winter for cold weather, with frequent periods of heavy snow, starting in November. Why? Well instead of a 24 mile return commute on major roads, soon I'll be doing around 85 miles every day, cross country, on minor roads. For that reason alone I'm predicting NE Scotland to see its snowiest winter in years. 

[sundog]

Wouldn't be surprised if it's another dud. 

2013/14 was a very stormy one,  lack of storms 2014/15,  2015/16 another stormy one,  2016/2017 lack of storms. Will the storms return for 2017/18???? 

The fact that we have had a different autumn so far compared to recent autumn's gives me some hope,but I think we have one or two more poor winters to get  past before we see something decent. Early 2020s or 2019 at the earliest I'm placing my bets on. This winter not so much.

Edited October 5, 2017 by sundog

[NeilN]

I’m keeping an open mind, but a part of me thinks we could strike gold this year. Even if we have a mixed winter with a national snow event for a couple of weeks, it’s an improvement. I can see something like 2008/09. 

[carinthian]

I am very confused to how the winter will progress. Last January we had record cold in parts of Austria but with very little snowfall and a early end to winter. February 2013 had record snowfall here on the borders of Carinthia/ Salzburgerland at height of 1500m plus but very little below 1000m and the winter was mostly mild.For the most part, lowland Europe has winter temps above average for most of the past 2 decades or so apart from the UK cold winter 2009/10. So a trend to a much colder winter for all would be most welcome for winter wonderland lovers but the Scandinavian high so dominant in the 1960s/ late 70s continues to fail and produce the full blocking goods for a prolonged widespread cold winter. Short cold spells are of no interest to me!

C

[Methuselah]

My hopes are for repeated 1947-esque snowfalls; my thoughts are 'yeah, right'; thus, my forecast is 'same sheet, different year'!

[weirpig]

My  guess is that this year will be mostly stormy  as usual i expect the eastern side of USA to get the cold weather  which will inturn fire the jet up  bringing quite a few depressions over us.   to be honest for me anything is better than the borefest we had to endure last winter.  

[jvenge]

Some variety would be good. Last year December was a non start really, kind of a prolonged Autumn. Winter came in January and it certain came with a bang.

Some good snow events, but also some prolonged ice days, with bright sunshine :-)

 

[Windchime72]

54 minutes ago, sundog said:

Wouldn't be surprised if it's another dud. 

2013/14 was a very stormy one,  lack of storms 2014/15,  2015/16 another stormy one,  2016/2017 lack of storms. Will the storms return for 2017/18???? 

The fact that we have had a different autumn so far compared to recent autumn's gives me some hope,but I think we have one or two more poor winters to get  past before we see something decent. Early 2020s or 2019 at the earliest I'm placing my bets on. This winter not so much.

Hi Sundog, great minds think alike... lol Yes this autumn is very reminiscent of our 80's autumns, around the end of September into October was often stormy which is happening this year, then calmer periods into November with a mix mild/cold spells usually drizzly or frosty and our first blast of wintry weather end of November/beginning of December. Leaves on trees have been colouring and falling since mid August, too early for my observation. This Autumn is much different compared to previous Autums, will this bring cold snowy weather, we will have to wait and see. And the berries are still on the trees, so keeping an eye on that too. Check out Adapt 2030 youtube channel, Maria Zhacarova, John Casey. We could be possibly moving into global cooling as we head into  sun cycle 25 and a grand solar minimum, basically we could seeing a lot more snow on our shores in the future. These people have credible data and much research material that backs it up. 

[Polar Maritime]

Not to be fussy, But another 1695 wouldn't go amiss..

A cold stormy Winter is also overdue.

Edited October 5, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Bobd29]

No one knows at this stage imo so I dismiss prophets of doom who already condemn winter 2017/18 to another mild fest. To my mind we are edging towards memorable winters in the late teens early twenties so my hope is that 2017 will be the start of this progress and there will be a couple of respectable snow events especially December and Jan. Hardly seen a flake of snow here for at least 4 years so we are long overdue....come on Santa.

[jonboy]

7 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Not to be fussy, But another 1695 wouldn't go amiss..

A stormy Winter is also overdue.

You must remember it well!!

[mountain shadow]

1 hour ago, Ravelin said:

It's going to be a stonker of a winter for cold weather, with frequent periods of heavy snow, starting in November. Why? Well instead of a 24 mile return commute on major roads, soon I'll be doing around 85 miles every day, cross country, on minor roads. For that reason alone I'm predicting NE Scotland to see its snowiest winter in years. 

Get yourself a camera for your car so we you when your stuck in the snowdrifts at Tomintoul!

[jules216]

It is hard to guess what will this winter bring, some of the analogues I am going with are: 1954/55,1970/71,1984/85,1995/96,2007/08, some of them had early cold, some late, but not a clear signal, a bit of a mess really, variable NAO and AO, only

trend I see, is for higher hights to west of Russia,Siberia and lower pressure around western Med. perhaps a displaced Azores High towards north,not reaching enought to create a persistet -NAO, jet could be a more NW-SE axis, and more NW shots this time around. anyone has some other analogues? 

Edited October 5, 2017 by jules216

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

Not to be fussy, But another 1695 wouldn't go amiss.

oh yes  what a year  TB, Ricketts, Small pox, And Cliff Richard at number one.

[feb1991blizzard]

13 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Not to be fussy, But another 1695 wouldn't go amiss..

A stormy Winter is also overdue.

Not sure about that, we've had loads of them in recent times.

[Willsy]

I think this winter is going to be above average precipitation and way below average temperature one!! Lots of easterlies to northeasterlies and relentless sliders!

[Had Worse]

3 minutes ago, Willsy said:

I think this winter is going to be above average precipitation and way below average temperature one!! Lots of easterlies to northeasterlies and relentless sliders!

A coldies heavenly dream, you never know though.

[SteveB]

One thing is for sure, I'm not taking any notice what so ever on any stupid FI nonsense the models show this year.

Last year hurt a lot, and I think lessons have been learnt as far as model watching goes.

[Polar Maritime]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not sure about that, we've had loads of them in recent times.

I forgot to add 'cold' & stormy ☺

 

Edited October 5, 2017 by Polar Maritime

[Had Worse]

1 minute ago, Polar Maritime said:

I forgot to add 'cold' ☺

 

You mean the common cold where you need tissues at hand