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SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards


Captain Shortwave

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Well.. 

Looks like the 12z models are bringing us back into it again. Anyone ready for round 2 of the chase? I'm definitely not.

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
1 hour ago, Danny* said:

Well.. 

Looks like the 12z models are bringing us back into it again. Anyone ready for round 2 of the chase? I'm definitely not.

What timeframe? What scenario? Haven’t had a chance to look at them? 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 hour ago, Danny* said:

Well.. 

Looks like the 12z models are bringing us back into it again. Anyone ready for round 2 of the chase? I'm definitely not.

Pfttt the grind never stops..

@WeatherMoose you seem new welcome to the mad house ! :) 

GFS 12z made me go a little faint 10cm of snow for the capital..yes please. 

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft

Don’t worry no explanation needed just seen the charts. I always get a tingle when I see NE winds. 

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Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
  • Location: Canmore, AB 4296ft|North Kent 350ft|Killearn 330ft
5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Snow level this eve about 300-350M - so unless I climb the mast @ 410M its sleet all the way!

I think you should ;-) get that pic 

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Posted
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal
  • Location: South Woodham Ferrers, Essex
10 hours ago, 80sWeather said:

Feb 1991 was epic. Had just started work aged 17 in Essex and remember going bezerk as Francis nonchalantly trotted this forecast for the day ahead. “Temps rising from minus 11 to a daytime high of minus 5”  !!!

Snowed two days solid to 13 inches where I was in Braintree. I remember cyling home 

from work with snow levels higher than the top of my bmx bike wheels

 

Oh this was a good year! I had just turned 12 and my mum still has a video of me in my C&A coat having the best snow fight with Darren next door. I made snow castles using buckets in preparation to throw. I must digitise these videos at some point. 
I hear January '79 was good, sadly I was too young to remember because I was busy being born. Knee deep at St John's my mother tells me. 

Edited by moogyboobles
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
34 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

When?

Thurs-Fri

GFS is following a trend of its with a back edge snow event for some of us a lot of moisture. Largely cold rain for East Anglia nothing is certain yet but makes for interest for those looking for proper snowfall.

D7B6F435-04CD-4D8D-BBD0-7BA72620064A.thumb.jpeg.609f183487dc867bf199c10ac101754a.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Rye East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: snow (but who doesnt like that)
  • Location: Rye East Sussex

Why is netwesther sayimg very cold next week high chance of snow but everyone else says going milder. I’m confused

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Posted
  • Location: DL
  • Location: DL
8 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Why is netwesther sayimg very cold next week high chance of snow but everyone else says going milder. I’m confused

The professionals don't base their forecasts on the GFS because they have better resources.  But this forum loves the GFS because it's 4 times per day, goes out to +16 days and is free of charge.

It might turn colder week after next however, so that's maybe causing some excitement.

Well that's my take anyway.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
18 minutes ago, meh said:

The professionals don't base their forecasts on the GFS because they have better resources.  But this forum loves the GFS because it's 4 times per day, goes out to +16 days and is free of charge.

It might turn colder week after next however, so that's maybe causing some excitement.

Well that's my take anyway.

Not quite true, the GFS is one of the main weather models used by professionals in both the UK and the USA and probably other countries too, it's accuracy usually up there with the UKMO and ECM.

Next week will be milder as air circulates around the high in the Atlantic sourced from the mid-Atlantic. The cold air doesn't start to arrive until later in the week Thurs/Fri, which is outside the typical forecasting period for the BBC etc.. 

The BBC's week ahead forecast does mention turning colder later next week 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/42200952

The BBC/Met Office are never going to forecast severe cold and widespread snow at that range, neither is anyone on here, many are just commenting what the latest model runs are showing. Whether that actually happens next week or not remains to be seen.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Anyone seeing something sleety this morning? Shame it’s not a little colder I see a few specks of pink showing now. Just icy cold rain here..

D8220602-26B4-4CD0-B0CD-9269CA9B8C5D.thumb.png.7138d26f1311d28558fcbd73f7a7a1f1.png7A2DD500-854F-442A-A1D4-9ACF6EFCA704.thumb.png.cd8f895745721fa4b38a9f5e26d2d15c.png

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK

Grey and gloomy start to the day here, looks dry for the moment, at least. Good sort of day for putting up the Christmas tree, so that's my job for today. 3C currently with a very light W'ly wind.

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Posted
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
  • Location: Shirley, Croydon, Greater London
1 hour ago, Surrey said:

We could be on the cusp of something great but we need to take the usual cautions. I prefer cold in Jan and Feb if I am being honest. They are always the better months to see snow because of better parameters and it gives more time for cold to pool up where we want it (East and North) 

I agree, we could be on the cusp of something great...........Also, David King the nature weather forecaster is going for a brutal winter during Jan, Feb into Mar. His past predictions have also been very good. He is not like the Daily Express by the way!!!

Edited by yamkin
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
1 hour ago, Surrey said:

We could be on the cusp of something great but we need to take the usual cautions. I prefer cold in Jan and Feb if I am being honest. They are always the better months to see snow because of better parameters and it gives more time for cold to pool up where we want it (East and North) 

I much prefer earlier cold than ‘rear’ winter cold by February you can’t help but have that nagging feeling. While the seas are at their coldest the lengthening days do not fill me joy when searching for cold. The optimum time for cold wintry weather is mid to late January, I’d say, in December conditions can be more than sufficient for decent cold pools to tap into from East etc, northerly airstreams tend to be their most potent much later. Snow over the festive period lifts everything IMO. Rare as hens’ teeth as Steve M once coined the phrase. 

Edited by Daniel*
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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I much prefer earlier cold than ‘rear’ winter cold by February you can’t help but have that nagging feeling. While the seas are at their coldest the lengthening days do not fill me joy when searching for cold. The optimum time for cold wintry weather is mid to late January, I’d say, in December conditions can be more than sufficient for decent cold pools to tap into from East etc, northerly airstreams tend to be their most potent much later. Snow over the festive period lifts everything IMO. Rare as hens’ teeth as Steve M once coined the phrase. 

I was going to say the same thing.

I feel like if we haven't had good cold weather by February then it becomes an "against the clock" thing and I don't like that, for me, December/January is the best time for snowfall. 

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
41 minutes ago, yamkin said:

I agree, we could be on the cusp of something great...........Also, David King the nature weather forecaster is going for a brutal winter during Jan, Feb into Mar. His past predictions have also been very good. He is not like the Daily Express by the way!!!

There were some signs in nature of a colder winter through this autumn. Will be interesting to see if the signs prove to be correct. The last time I saw these signs was in 2010....:cold:

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Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
20 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I much prefer earlier cold than ‘rear’ winter cold by February you can’t help but have that nagging feeling. While the seas are at their coldest the lengthening days do not fill me joy when searching for cold. The optimum time for cold wintry weather is mid to late January, I’d say, in December conditions can be more than sufficient for decent cold pools to tap into from East etc, northerly airstreams tend to be their most potent much later. Snow over the festive period lifts everything IMO. Rare as hens’ teeth as Steve M once coined the phrase. 

Some of the best big freeze conditions and snowfalls have occurred in February. Although I agree with you about January being an 'optimal' month for snow, once the end of February gets closer, most people are looking forward to some spring warmth, as the British winter is often very dreary and depressing. Have to say, Christmas snow is my idea of hell, but each to their own. Suppose we just have to be grateful when we get it here!

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