SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Dami]

2 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Why is this Dami? you'd be better positioned than most in this thread.

Come back to me in a couple of days. 

[lassie23]

so it's gone from 20 inches of snow with 10 foot drifts, to the odd wintry shower around Ed's back yard

[yamkin]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

so it's gone from 20 inches of snow with 10 foot drifts, to the odd wintry shower around Ed's back yard

Models will be up & down re PPN at this stage.

[staplehurst]

2 hours ago, slater said:

Can someone explain why in 12 hrs we were in for the most intense snow storm Thursday night Friday now absolutely nothing, yes I know charts 5/6 days ahead do change dramatically but it was nailed down by the model room at 9pm last night in fact 200 of them were over excited.

In a basic sense, it's still way too early to take model output that far ahead with more than a pinch of salt, as it will keep changing with each run. The broad theme is there though - much colder air arriving on Thursday behind the cold front, thereafter there could be more organised trough features running south in the flow that models won't be picking up on yet. Incidentally, a lot of global models always struggle with inland penetration of coastal showers. Another thing to keep an eye on is the low that parks itself up over Scandi - depending on its proximity, it might try to push some slightly less-cold air in from the northeast at times.

2 hours ago, Timbo said:

I think we are all in for a good chance of snow later this week, , last Thursday we were supposed to be getting sleety showers on the coast here at Lowestoft, By 11am it had been snowing of and on since 5am and a good covering of about 3", although forecasts were still saying sleet. it will be all down to nowcasting and expect a few surprises

Intrigued to know where you'd heard just sleet showers were forecast for Lowestoft specifically? There was always a good chance places like Lowestoft and Southwold would get a light covering of snow from those showers given the favourable offshore wind direction.

[lassie23]

2 minutes ago, yamkin said:

Models will be up & down re PPN at this stage.

AYE, be toatally different tonight.

[Flaked Queen]

2 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Only Lassie did the snow dance last time, we all need to do it now strength in numbers.

No he wasn’t the only one ... we all danced but the snow gods didn’t answer ... maybe we need to make a offering 

[stainesbloke]

52 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

so it's gone from 20 inches of snow with 10 foot drifts, to the odd wintry shower around Ed's back yard

Careful! You know realism is strongly discouraged on this forum when it comes to anything wintry. The wintry showers scenario is the more likely one, although there's scope for upgrades. 

Edited December 3, 2017 by stainesbloke

[bluearmy]

3 hours ago, slater said:

Can someone explain why in 12 hrs we were in for the most intense snow storm Thursday night Friday now absolutely nothing, yes I know charts 5/6 days ahead do change dramatically but it was nailed down by the model room at 9pm last night in fact 200 of them were over excited.

If you're going to venture into the MOD thread without a hard hat slater then prepared to be banged about the head! 

Been far too much excitement in there without any decent model support within a reasonable timeframe. 

[lassie23]

15 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Careful! You know realism is strongly discouraged on this forum when it comes to anything wintry. The wintry showers scenario is the more likely one, although there's scope for upgrades. 

they post a load of old dog biscuits in that thread.

[JennyJane1]

1 hour ago, Snowflake Queen said:

No he wasn’t the only one ... we all danced but the snow gods didn’t answer ... maybe we need to make a offering 

Lassie has to dance starkers next time

[lassie23]

28 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

Lassie has to dance starkers next time

if it's cold, then expect shrinkage

[snowrye]

If it can go pear shaped for us in the south-east,it will do

[lassie23]

4 minutes ago, snowrye said:

If it can go pear shaped for us in the south-east,it will do

lol in the mod thread they are talking of ice days etc, it will be a marginal ham sandwich for the SE as usual.

[tinybill]

well looking at the models  if it goes  pear  i will be  a monk ,there looking loads  of the white stuff heading  our way after  thuresday  at  the  moment  i hope

[Daniel*]

Just for fun at this stage but ECM 00z shows a light covering for SE/E London parts of NW Kent and a fair chunk of Essex come Friday evening. Here’s hoping. 

[JennyJane1]

I have just this second come back from town it is mild outside.

[Daniel*]

That’s a frightful image Jenny..  it is mild getting dark before 1600 not nice to compensate I’ve been waking up earlier. December so far has been more seasonal than the norm, early next week will be a mere blip. 

[steveinsussex]

Model runs still not very good for our area

 

boring set up northerlies for down here

bring on an Easterly please 

[yamkin]

5 minutes ago, steveinsussex said:

Model runs still not very good for our area

 

boring set up northerlies for down here

bring on an Easterly please 

By Wednesday we will get a much better picture of the PPN set up. All in the air at the moment

[Weathizard]

14 minutes ago, yamkin said:

By Wednesday we will get a much better picture of the PPN set up. All in the air at the moment

As much as I agree to a point, the models have been very consistent with little to no wintery PPN for the majority of us during the intial cold snap, the reality is with northerlies it's quite rare they deliver anything to us, and when they do it's transient.

thats not to say the game is up of course, just difficult to see their being a big enough change to deliver for us initially

Edited December 3, 2017 by Weathizard

[Coopsy]

Agreed it’s normally the north east/easterly or a channel low that can really deliver the goods for us in the SE. That said a last minute trough moving N/S could deliver a few inches. 

[Coopsy]

 

4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

lol in the mod thread they are talking of ice days etc, it will be a marginal ham sandwich for the SE as usual.

I just can’t see us getting anything from this where we are. 

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, c00ps said:

Agreed it’s normally the north east/easterly or a channel low that can really deliver the goods for us in the SE. That said a last minute trough moving N/S could deliver a few inches. 

It's different even for neighbouring parts in this region: in the five years I've been here, showers tend to be (at least when 850hpa temps are above -8 or 9) more snowy when the wind is coming from very slightly west of north, so keeping the warming effect of the sea to a minimum. However, too much of a westerly vector and we get sod-all!

But then, you guys in and around Londonshire can sometimes get the tail-end of a Cheshire Gap streamer...Sort of 'swings & roundabouts I guess?

[Coopsy]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

It's different even for neighbouring parts in this region: in the five years I've been here, showers tend to be (at least when 850hpa temps are above -8 or 9) more snowy when the wind is coming from very slightly west of north, so keeping the warming effect of the sea to a minimum. However, too much of a westerly vector and we get sod-all!

But then, you guys in and around Londonshire can sometimes get the tail-end of a Cheshire Gap streamer...Sort of 'swings & roundabouts I guess?

Actually you’re right cos in NE winds if cold enough north Kent away from coast does well but Essex tends to get diddly  squat. I just want cold air in and a nice channel low that dumps a foot of snow for everyone and then streamers and sea effect showers coming in for a few days. Not too much to ask Is it? Lol 

[Met4Cast]

I'm not a fan of North-Westerlies, they often deliver absolutely naff all for my part of the region (and many other parts).

I think the holy grail is a front moving along the channel and stalling, but that seems to be absolutely incredibly rare nowadays, many of the snowiest winters in history were brought about by this sort of setup for our region.

The next best thing is a Thames/Kent streamer. But a North/North-West, without some sort of wave/trough/low they don't deliver bar a few possible showers. And even then, it's touch and go whether or not they break up before they reach us.