SE and East Anglia generalweather discussion 08/11/2017 onwards

[Snow Queen one]

2 hours ago, yamkin said:

By Wednesday we will get a much better picture of the PPN set up. All in the air at the moment

Yamkin good to see you back. ?

Edited December 3, 2017 by Snow Queen one

[shotski]

If Joe B a s t a r d I said we’re going to get snow that’s good enough for me. 

[Ben Lewis]

46 minutes ago, shotski said:

If Joe B a s t a r d I said we’re going to get snow that’s good enough for me. 

Haha.. if only. 

Can you remember his winter 2013/14 of a frigid NW European winter with numerous snow events for the UK. 

We were swimming in 12+ C all winter instead of digging in -4C snow storms. 

Guy is an absolute joke! 

[JennyJane1]

I am doing my bit, I got carrots, potatoes, cauliflower, courgettes, chicken and bisto, ready for making hearty soups when we are snowed in.

[shotski]

11 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Haha.. if only. 

Can you remember his winter 2013/14 of a frigid NW European winter with numerous snow events for the UK. 

We were swimming in 12+ C all winter instead of digging in -4C snow storms. 

Guy is an absolute joke! 

Next you’ll be saying I can’t trust the daily Express 

[yamkin]

1 hour ago, Snow Queen one said:

Yamkin good to see you back. ?

Thanks 

[Kent Blizzard]

11 hours ago, Dami said:

Come back to me in a couple of days. 

Ok, see you Tuesday 

[Daniel*]

4 hours ago, Danny* said:

I'm not a fan of North-Westerlies, they often deliver absolutely naff all for my part of the region (and many other parts).

I think the holy grail is a front moving along the channel and stalling, but that seems to be absolutely incredibly rare nowadays, many of the snowiest winters in history were brought about by this sort of setup for our region.

The next best thing is a Thames/Kent streamer. But a North/North-West, without some sort of wave/trough/low they don't deliver bar a few possible showers. And even then, it's touch and go whether or not they break up before they reach us. 

This one is looking deeply unstable on this occasion I’d go as far and say you would be unlikely to miss out on some snow just my take. MetO flagged up widespread showers, these going well inland fits with what I’m seeing. 

[Dami]

8 hours ago, Kent Blizzard said:

Ok, see you Tuesday 

don't hold ya hopes.

[snowrye]

Help,ive been in the mod thread,I know,shouldn't have done it,but,it's done now,how does anyone decipher what the bloody hell is happening in there,how can people's predictions be so far apart,and don't get me started on the saga,of when they don't agree with each other,toy's and rattles all over the place,it's quite comical

[Snow Queen one]

Lots of in my back yard posts is why the predictions are so different.  I try not to go in there lol.  You just have to learn to recognse the more experienced posters who give their view on the models as a whole.  

Edited December 4, 2017 by Snow Queen one

[Kent Blizzard]

38 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Help,ive been in the mod thread,I know,shouldn't have done it,but,it's done now,how does anyone decipher what the bloody hell is happening in there,how can people's predictions be so far apart,and don't get me started on the saga,of when they don't agree with each other,toy's and rattles all over the place,it's quite comical

Although charts should give people the same conclusion everyone is entitled to a difference of opinion on the outcome, then when someone doesn't post what the he,t person wants to see all hell breaks loose.

It must be quite tiresome for those that post daily in the MO after each and every run but credit where due.

This thread can be the same but as its on a MO thread the rules are more relaxed. 

You can put in a lot of effort and post what the charts show, patterns and so on for someone to dismiss it with a one liner rather than post any knowledge to back it up with.

 

[Snow Queen one]

Well said Kent.  I agree totally.

[Rob Deacon]

I'm personally feeling quite upbeat for the prospects of some snow this winter, even down here in the south, and before Christmas.

One of the main reasons for me thinking this is just the plain old law of averages, 5 years since we had any settled snow here is the longest spell without any settled snow in my lifetime of 38 years living in this area, nature has a way of balancing it out in the long run, just like when you roll 2 dice, you might not get double 6 every 12th roll, but over time it balances out .

Most of the various Global models are showing good potential for Northern Blocking, with a Northerly kicking in end of the working week. Northerly's don't offer us our best chances for snow in this area, but it is possible to get something out of it, and further down the line this set up could lead us to an easterly IMO...

  we have a Atlantic that is far more calm than normal, quite often we are now being battered with a train of wind and rain just rolling in one after the other, looking for possible breaks in the train 2 weeks out in the far FI of models, not this year... so far.

I've not yet got my sledge out or anything, but am thinking it's time to get the winter tyres on the BMW this week, and also get a MOT on my Hilux so it's ready for some snow fun if and when it comes  

 

 

[Katrine Basso]

Today is a fine settled day with some spells of sunshine.  The temperature at 09:00 is 3.9 °C  and there is no breeze today. Humidity is still high at 98%.

[Justin Miller]

So the question is, we seem to have N/N’Wly flow from Friday for at least 4 days, but I saw earlier this week the GFS hinted at some back edge snow on the low this Thursday, is this still a possibility, I hope so as it would be better for us here in London region, as N’wly Flows never bring us anything. Also saw that there is the possibility of some undercutting channel lows.

[Kent Blizzard]

One thing that does look nailed on is the windchill factor through Friday and the weekend, the feel like temperature recordings could make interesting reading even for us. -5/-6 could easily be reached.

A little feature worth keeping an eye on might be Sunday afternoon ( FI though at this stage ) but will depend how quick that wind swings round, SE'ly wind off a cold continent snow can fall up to -1c at 850Hpa and thicknesses can be as high as 537dam as the air is dry and cold.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Kent Blizzard

[username home]

1 hour ago, snowrye said:

Help,ive been in the mod thread,I know,shouldn't have done it,but,it's done now,how does anyone decipher what the bloody hell is happening in there,how can people's predictions be so far apart,and don't get me started on the saga,of when they don't agree with each other,toy's and rattles all over the place,it's quite comical

the best way to know if it's going to snow is if posts are being machine gun fired in on here.... at the moment that ain't happening therefore our chances of the white stuff (based on what is really known) is very slim..... 

[WeatherMoose]

This is looking promising. However its probably going to change as its 2 weeks away

Thursday looks like its going to be a washout (too mild at 11c for snow)

Good thing I brought a new winter coat this year! had a feeling it was going to be a cold one!

 

[Kent Blizzard]

18 minutes ago, WeatherMoose said:

This is looking promising. However its probably going to change as its 2 weeks away

Thursday looks like its going to be a washout (too mild at 11c for snow)

Good thing I brought a new winter coat this year! had a feeling it was going to be a cold one!

 

As it's 2 weeks away it'll probably change 3 times a day till then 

Thursday we'll start the day in shorts and end it with a wooly hat and scarf  

[lassie23]

i just read the weather outlook home page, who needs all the dog biscuits in the mod thread, as for joe laminate floori, he is obsessed with freezers

[Dami]

What some of you need to understand is the geography of where I live. I live in a Valley, I watch many many showers and storms break up before they even reach me, then re - built again. In fact a lot of weather just goes round me.  

In essence, I would get more excited over a possible weather front and a period of wintry weather than blink and miss showers, which often miss me. My Husband has seem more snow working in MK. And with that I mean it forecasted  on the day not a week away.

I think it's very self righteous to bang on what a computer thinks over experience and with my above point I shall only get excited if and when the snow falls, Not because 1 forecast gives me a snow symbol.   

Therefore seeing forecasts change from snow to sleet to rain to nothing with the temperatures dancing around it doesn't really do much for my confidence that I'm in a 'Sweet spot' If this week gives me something than fine I'll enjoy it.

If it doesn't at least I won't be kicking a box because I 'missed ' out.

Edited December 4, 2017 by Dami

[stainesbloke]

Grotty day here. Grey gloom, again, and it feels very chilly despite the thermometer saying 9C. Light winds, at least. 

[Daniel*]

2 hours ago, Justin Miller said:

So the question is, we seem to have N/N’Wly flow from Friday for at least 4 days, but I saw earlier this week the GFS hinted at some back edge snow on the low this Thursday, is this still a possibility, I hope so as it would be better for us here in London region, as N’wly Flows never bring us anything. Also saw that there is the possibility of some undercutting channel lows.

Hi Justin, you seem young! Welcome.

Unfortunately the back edge snow seems to have totally evaporated.

That’s not quite true. As shown by GFS 06z as it has done consecutively, snow showers towards our NW, working their way towards London area on a brisk NNW flow. It can be a good direction for the Chilterns. 

[yamkin]

27 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Hi Justin, you seem young! Welcome.

Unfortunately the back edge snow seems to have totally evaporated.

That’s not quite true. As shown by GFS 06z as it has done consecutively, snow showers towards our NW, working their way towards London area on a brisk NNW flow. It can be a good direction for the Chilterns. 

The Cheshire Gap Streamer is one to watch as this could give quite a lot of snow in the direction of London/Kent