Model output discussion - winter proper underway

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

The new ec op day 7 looks very much like yesterday mornings day 10 on upper pattern

i love an evolution that accelerates by 36 hours, especially a cold one ! 

Hum- GFS looks to have more wintry potential than EC blue?

[Allseasons-Si]

That is a good chart at 168 from the ecm compared with yesterdays 216,,better seperation of lows in the atlantic and check out that polar ridge getting into greenland,i have never seen that one before,usually you get the greenland ridge from the atlanic,great model watching this and i would like to see how this unfolds

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well GFS is certainly offering more wintry potential than EC tonight!!

It is? 

Anyway, rather than debate gfs v ecm I think we’re on the way to talking wedges again 

remember what happened last time we talked wedges ........

this ec op run shows how difficult it’s going to be to stop the energy from the Siberian lobe heading west at too high a latitude to stop us merely feeling the force of the northern arm in its wake. When there is a transfer of vortex fr M Siberia to Canada on our side of the pole it is nearly always accompanied by a strong pulse of the northern arm heading across the Atlantic. It’s not over by any means but it’s a tough gig to pull off !

Edited December 20, 2017 by bluearmy

[northwestsnow]

Just now, bluearmy said:

It is? 

Anyway, rather than debate gfs v ecm I think we’re on the way to talking wedges again 

remember what happened last time we talked wedges ........

haha -

Yes i do , i was in the amber warning until 24 hours before the event-  

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

It is? 

Anyway, rather than debate gfs v ecm I think we’re on the way to talking wedges again 

remember what happened last time we talked wedges ........

Oh no!!!

another dumping coming then

i hope this wedge knocks the pv out of the woods(no pun)

[Chesil View]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

haha -

Yes i do , i was in the amber warning until 24 hours before the event-  

Your lucky Nws I was in the no hope area from day one till the end. Lol

Edited December 20, 2017 by Broadmayne blizzard

[comet]

T192 and jet being pushed further and further south by the Arctic high as I alluded to in the post above. Things definitely moving in the right direction tonight. In fact t192 is not far off of a snowy chart.

Edited December 20, 2017 by comet

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Your lucky Nws I was in the no hope area from day one till the end. Lol

Its the hope that kills you

Anyway, this Pacific ridge appears to be causing all sorts of havoc with the NWP- all 3 look different at 144 ..

[nick sussex]

The ECM starts off with some good ingredients and makes a dinner that even the dog isn't interested in!

The GFS starts off with some chuck steak and at least makes something you want to eat before some indigestion.

Very bizarre goings on with the ECM cross polar flow delivering zip. The overblown low doesn't help and overall we turned up at the cinema expecting a blockbuster and ended up watching Murder She Wrote!

 

[Allseasons-Si]

The pv is like Britney spears.....

do you want a piece of me lol

it seems to want to chuck everyting but the kitchen sink at us and looking at the last few days the jet looks to be tracking further and further south because of the polar heights gaining momentum,interesting times i would say

[northwestsnow]

EC  snow depth charts look VERY good for parts of wales and the pennines/peak district!!

[SMU]

There is no interest long term in the ECM - it order for anything decent to come from a migrating high from the Pacific side it needs to align more towards Russia-

no interest in the models at the moment ( other than the odd transient event at elevation - nothing to develop in the North / North east for +10 days at least

Edited December 20, 2017 by Steve Murr

[Chesil View]

17 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Its the hope that kills you

Anyway, this Pacific ridge appears to be causing all sorts of havoc with the NWP- all 3 look different at 144 ..

It sure is the hope that kills you. 5th jan 2010 I was in red alert area for 12 to 18 inches of snow and never got a flake. Still having counselling. 

Yes that pacific ridge is causing the models some problems.

[knocker]

The ecm is not dissimilar to this morning’s up to the middle of next week.

At 12 Saturday it has the front trailing to the south west at the division between the mid Atlantic trough and the Azores HP impacting Scotland with some rain which continues through Saturday and Sunday as the front moves a little south

But it gets no further south as by 12 Monday the upper trough to the west is pushing east resulting in the aforementioned front also coming under pressure and is now orientated more N/S and is developing a wave south west of Ireland.  At this point England and Wales are in a moist south westerly with temps around 10C.

By 12 Tuesday the wave has deepened and is 980mb over southern Ireland with strong winds in coastal areas and maybe heavy rain in the Scotland and N. Ireland.

It then tracks slowly across the UK to be 972mb in the North Sea by 12 Wednesday and during it’s travels it could well initiate gales in many areas

850mb contours and anomaly

[northwestsnow]

Looks good for northern areas- esp with altitude- ?

[carinthian]

20 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The ECM starts off with some good ingredients and makes a dinner that even the dog isn't interested in!

The GFS starts off with some chuck steak and at least makes something you want to eat before some indigestion.

Very bizarre goings on with the ECM cross polar flow delivering zip. The overblown low doesn't help and overall we turned up at the cinema expecting a blockbuster and ended up watching Murder She Wrote!

 

Great stuff Nick. Here comes Navgem to the rescue ! A blockbuster picture at 180t. Keeps sliding those lows , lower and lower . Weird ECM charts tonight. Think UKMO looks ok. 

C

[Hull snow]

Can someone post ecm snow depth chart please

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Hull snow said:

Can someone post ecm snow depth chart please

I can't post the link on this stupid laptop but unless you live in high ground in wales or the Pennines/peaks they are not worth posting...

[KTtom]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

There is no interest long term in the ECM - it order for anything decent to come from a migrating high from the Pacific side it needs to align more towards Russia-

no interest in the models at the moment ( other than the odd transient event at elevation - nothing to develop in the North / North east for +10 days at least

Odd thing to say Steve...granted it looks unlikely well get anything noteworthy regarding wintry conditions from the current set up, but synoptically speaking it' an intriguing set up...and makes a nice change from the usual winter fad of chasing phantom easterlies which seems to leave the UK in no-mans land for what seems to be weeks on end.

[The PIT]

2 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

Can someone post ecm snow depth chart please

Well looking at 850's in Hull it should be about zero. Looks high ground transient but then it's in lala land so could show blow torch south westerlies next run.

[swfc]

Looking at some of the comments on here at times any new members must be more confused than scooby doo!!!.backroung signals look great going into jan,then there not ete ete.Anyway gfs and ecm this evening look imo to be likely to give a bit of wintryness to the north west and scotland.jet trying to get south but generally the pv is too strong

Upgrade on the models threw xmas but looking at the nhp I cant see a way towards any sustained cold

Edited December 20, 2017 by swfc

[Tim Bland]

11 minutes ago, Hull snow said:

Can someone post ecm snow depth chart please

3 foot deep in North West Scotland !

 

[Allseasons-Si]

24 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

There is no interest long term in the ECM - it order for anything decent to come from a migrating high from the Pacific side it needs to align more towards Russia-

no interest in the models at the moment ( other than the odd transient event at elevation - nothing to develop in the North / North east for +10 days at least

A bit like p9 Steve

[Blessed Weather]

While we wait for some 'proper' (cold!!) charts to turn up I thought I'd look at tonight's GEFS 12z spread for 10 days out (31st Dec). It appears to be a case of good news and bad news. Interestingly, the biggest area of uncertainty in the NH at month end is over the UK.

So the good news is the UK might be under a cold trough.....

Pert 14

...but then again, maybe it'll be a mild SW'ly flow.

Pert 13

But I suspect the real bad news.... if you look back at the first chart, the GEFS don't show much spread over the Greenland/Iceland area. So as suggested by tonight's Op run, it's looking a rather potent PV to our North to end the month. But hey, all my post is only based on today's 12z output, so let's continue to hope for better tomorrow!!!

[bluearmy]

 

 

You can follow the small cluster at T72 fronbthe other side of Siberia to see the current favoured spot for the PVTL to arrive this side of the NH. Just off n e Greenland by day 8. Need that further south and east 

Edited December 20, 2017 by bluearmy