North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Winter Hill]

big ECM  coming up...fingers and toes crossed

[northwestsnow]

11 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

big ECM  coming up...fingers and toes crossed

Just watching it...think its going to 8further north ... hope im wrong.

Think its ok but it zips thru that quickly its hard to make out its path!!

Edited January 13, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Deep Snow please]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Yeah, im a bit gutted but hey ho-

Is what it is .. 

They normally let you back in fairly soon unless your a complete nutter.

 

Anyway here's my second rate analysis of the coming fortnight; not that I am in anyway qualified to give it.

 

There's definitely a cold theme developing, I think anyone left disputing that is probably out on their own. So the issue we're looking for is how cold. On an imby level not quite cold enough at the right time for the moment, it appears that BBC/Meto are tracking for rain/snow/sleet/slush mixture - although some models are being a bit more optimistic. As someone who's seen an awful lot of potential this winter I need more consensus than is currently available to get excited - the jaffa cakeser is that there's an absolutely mammoth trough of cold digging for a few days afterwards but it's dry as a bone according to those sources. To put the potential in to context - the 29th December non-event of slush was lying snow from pretty much the Lancashire/Yorkshire border all the way to the North East, I know as I was on a train (that ran surprisingly well given the weather and usually inability). 

Some of the snow depth charts for our region that have been coming out the last few days are incredible but this still doesn't seem quite sewn up. Falling snow seems an inevitability at this point between Monday and Friday, but let's be honest falling snow followed by rain is about the worst possible scenario for anyone. What we're really looking for is consistent snow fall to decent quantities followed by a slow thaw after a few days of it lying. The current trend seems to be towards the usual situation for us where buckets and buckets of potential are progressively downgraded to a high-level snow event and a slush fest for the rest of us.

We just need a bit more of a cold air flow to come in on Monday night and stick around with this weather front until Friday for this to be an epic event, at the minute it risks being a bit cold rather than a cold snap. 

The absolute wonder scenario is that this batch of snow delivers and sticks around for that FI easterly which just happens to be the first in a long time to break through the pennines in enormous quantities. But as always lying snow is a bonus in this modern age.

[Spah1]

40 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes well undr moderation..id rather not bother..esp in view of the sheer volume of banter type posts...i only try to inject a bit of humour( when im not moaning) lol

O well.

How dare you talk about the north west and snow. 

Down South and an Easterly, banter away!!

[severe snowstorm]

Just now, Spah1 said:

How dare you talk about the north west and snow. 

Down South and an Easterly, banter away!!

Don't forget 'southward corrections' as well!

[Deep Snow please]

Rural parts of our region could be living in ice fields next week. Some mega cold charts on the GFS.

 

Hope you bought thermals. If this GFS run comes off we won't get above freezing for over a week! Here's a snapshot of some of it. 

 

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Lol that graphic posted in the mod thread shows snow on the northern edge of the low across the midlands..and rain in our region..

[chicken soup]

I'm becoming very concerned indeed about the MET and BBC not being on board, its only 3 days off now, if we cant get decent snow from this setup its time to give up...ps If any mods are reading, I think its outrageous that NWS has been banned from mod thread, nothing wrong with his input at all.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Lol that graphic posted in the mod thread shows snow on the northern edge of the low across the midlands..and rain in our region..

rubbish graphic, bbc graphics especially at that range useless

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

I'm becoming very concerned indeed about the MET and BBC not being on board, its only 3 days off now, if we cant get decent snow from this setup its time to give up...ps If any mods are reading, I think its outrageous that NWS has been banned from mod thread, nothing wrong with his input at all.

Thanku..i was annoyed but never mind mate.

Im concerned about the lack of interest from the beeb..sumats up.

[Thunder Snow]

2 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

I'm becoming very concerned indeed about the MET and BBC not being on board, its only 3 days off now, if we cant get decent snow from this setup its time to give up...ps If any mods are reading, I think its outrageous that NWS has been banned from mod thread, nothing wrong with his input at all.

far worse posts in there forum is becoming to serious

[iand61]

7 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

They normally let you back in fairly soon unless your a complete nutter.

 

Anyway here's my second rate analysis of the coming fortnight; not that I am in anyway qualified to give it.

 

There's definitely a cold theme developing, I think anyone left disputing that is probably out on their own. So the issue we're looking for is how cold. On an imby level not quite cold enough at the right time for the moment, it appears that BBC/Meto are tracking for rain/snow/sleet/slush mixture - although some models are being a bit more optimistic. As someone who's seen an awful lot of potential this winter I need more consensus than is currently available to get excited - the jaffa cakeser is that there's an absolutely mammoth trough of cold digging for a few days afterwards but it's dry as a bone according to those sources. To put the potential in to context - the 29th December non-event of slush was lying snow from pretty much the Lancashire/Yorkshire border all the way to the North East, I know as I was on a train (that ran surprisingly well given the weather and usually inability). 

Some of the snow depth charts for our region that have been coming out the last few days are incredible but this still doesn't seem quite sewn up. Falling snow seems an inevitability at this point between Monday and Friday, but let's be honest falling snow followed by rain is about the worst possible scenario for anyone. What we're really looking for is consistent snow fall to decent quantities followed by a slow thaw after a few days of it lying. The current trend seems to be towards the usual situation for us where buckets and buckets of potential are progressively downgraded to a high-level snow event and a slush fest for the rest of us.

We just need a bit more of a cold air flow to come in on Monday night and stick around with this weather front until Friday for this to be an epic event, at the minute it risks being a bit cold rather than a cold snap. 

The absolute wonder scenario is that this batch of snow delivers and sticks around for that FI easterly which just happens to be the first in a long time to break through the pennines in enormous quantities. But as always lying snow is a bonus in this modern age.

A good balanced assessment and probably the best post i’ve read on here today.

it is easy to be thought of as a manic depressive when you don’t buy into the hype that the models show but the reality is that downgrades far outnumber upgrades when it comes to snow and bitter cold with the form horse usually being somewhere between at best a watered down version and at worst a complete reversal.

on this occasion i’d say that the cold is pretty well nailed on but anyone planning on taking a shovel inside so they can dig themselves outwards through mountainous drifts will be bitterly disappointed .......... pardon the pun.

 

[Deep Snow please]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Lol that graphic posted in the mod thread shows snow on the northern edge of the low across the midlands..and rain in our region..

For those avoiding the mod thread given nobody wants to talk about the actual snow event rather than the imagined one

[Winter Hill]

ECM 168...Just got a feeling the 192 chart will show energy going over the top.......

 

 

[icetruck]

Hope the North west does well out of this storm snow wise this week, took the dog out up Holme Moss radio station last week the drifts were waist deep!! , if the roads are open it's well worth a drive up to see when it's been snowing...huge drifts. 

[icetruck]

PS think it's a joke if nw snow has been banned from the mod forum enjoy reading his posts and his enthusiasm for the weather! 

[iand61]

6 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

For those avoiding the mod thread given nobody wants to talk about the actual snow event rather than the imagined one

Apparently this is taken from the BBC, is this the same BBC which is refusing to show any snow activity before that in case it indicates that the north west of England might see something.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, Winter Hill said:

ECM 168...Just got a feeling the 192 chart will show energy going over the top.......

 

 

Yes, shocker EC, 240 looks vile, but FI, hmmm, makes you wonder though

[SP1986]

They just look like a clump of showers following on to me.. and marginality will be increased due to the air coming in off the sea. If you ran those BBC graphics forward, I suspect they would show turning to snow inland.

[Winter Hill]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes, shocker EC, 240 looks vile, but FI, hmmm, makes you wonder though

horrible chart....

[I remember Atlantic 252]

8 minutes ago, icetruck said:

PS think it's a joke if nw snow has been banned from the mod forum enjoy reading his posts and his enthusiasm for the weather! 

surely not! his posts are great

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes well undr moderation..id rather not bother..esp in view of the sheer volume of banter type posts...i only try to inject a bit of humour( when im not moaning) lol

O well.

Any warning points?

[Chris.R]

IMBY post again: If I take the 850s at face value then just looks like hail/graupel now apart from Tuesday night, Thursday night and at the back edge of any runners. I cannot take them at face value however because I’m not sure what effect the very low dewpoints will have  in offsetting the  underwhelming 850s. It will have some effect but I’m not sure  to what extent. 

[northwestsnow]

17 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Any warning points?

No idea mate

 I know the bbc apps are unreliable but if peeps type in moorside on the bbc app and take a look im not sure how on earth there are no warnings?

Unless of course it a pile of utter waste, in which case it begs the question why dont they ditch them?

Edited January 13, 2018 by northwestsnow

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

No idea mate

should tell you in profile, I have 2, 2nd one was last Jan, week of posts under moderation before appearing on forum, all threads