North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

[Chris.R]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

they have for NI and Scotland ?

 They never do for our region. I think our forecasters have an aversion to the word snow. 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Chris.R

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Chris.R said:

 Never do for our regional. I think our forecasters have an aversion to the word snow. 

lol.

 

[Deep Snow please]

BBC got a rainfest for here.

[More Runs Needed]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Not sure..

Guess we will find out soon tho

Either way, it's going to be a very interesting period for lampost watching 

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, Chris.R said:

 Never do for our regional. I think our forecasters have an aversion to the word snow. 

Yes, again, this is ridiculous overanalysis, but I think the NI/Scotland texts are written from a different bank of desks. ? I’m not even joking - I think it’s a different team.

Anyway- worth keeping an eye on the next few GFS runs as we are getting into very reliable territory now. Fingers crossed for subtle upgrades.

[iand61]

Tbh most of the decent falls of snow I have had over the last few has come on the back of no warnings being issued.

showers are very hit and miss but have the potential to deliver some impressive amounts in a localised area whilst others see next to nothing.

we saw almost a foot of snow from a screamer a few years ago that never made it to a warning

Frustratingly though i usually miss out  but maybe the showery nature is the reason why the Met are being very quiet on the matter.

thats the straw i’m clutching but if we’ve heard nothing by the end of the weekend I can see toys being thrown out of a fair few north west prams

[severe snowstorm]

People need to relax. Amber warnings have been issued for snow showers on the same day many times in the past. Still looks good for Tuesday night. That said, the Peak District forecast does indicate 200m needed for falling snow on Tuesday. This will of course chop and change over the next couple of days as the models change. 

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Yes, again, this is ridiculous overanalysis, but I think the NI/Scotland texts are written from a different bank of desks. ? I’m not even joking - I think it’s a different team.

Anyway- worth keeping an eye on the next few GFS runs as we are getting into very reliable territory now. Fingers crossed for subtle upgrades.

 Yes indeed. I know there’s no point worry about small details yet. 

[northwestsnow]

chris fawkes tweeting heavy snow showers for northern HILLS next week -

make of that what you will but it does not sound good for low lying areas esp west of the region..

bbc app has upgraded for here tues- heavy snow showers  thru the day..

Edited January 13, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Day 10]

What have you started iand61?  couple of pages of snowball panic!

[damianslaw]

3 minutes ago, iand61 said:

Tbh most of the decent falls of snow I have had over the last few has come on the back of no warnings being issued.

showers are very hit and miss but have the potential to deliver some impressive amounts in a localised area whilst others see next to nothing.

we saw almost a foot of snow from a screamer a few years ago that never made it to a warning

Frustratingly though i usually miss out  but maybe the showery nature is the reason why the Met are being very quiet on the matter.

thats the straw i’m clutching but if we’ve heard nothing by the end of the weekend I can see toys being thrown out of a fair few north west prams

At this range, confidence is low where snow might fall and be disruptive. However, I would suspect it will be Monday morning when a yellow weather warning for snow is put out for the NW region, and every chance this may upgrade to an amber on Tuesday when the effects of the upcoming spell become clearer. In recent weeks, warning have appeared in very short timeframes, areas suddenly being placed under a warning and others taken out.

Next week could be a memorable spell for snow enthusiasts.

[Joe Bloggs]

6 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Yes indeed. I know there’s no point worry about small details yet. 

I’ve learnt over the years to not place too much faith in TV forecasts (more than a day ahead), or even the text forecasts on the MetO website in situations like this. The apps are a joke until you get within 48 hours, after this the hourly forecasts from the UKV can be very accurate in determining streamer locations, etc. Bear in mind I am talking about convective setups - I have seen time and time again for the risks to be underplayed by the MetO and the BBC until we’re extremely close to the event for NW England.

To save yourself going mad, it’s better to stick to the NWP and your own local knowledge to get a good gauge of whether there is snow potential. The main risk I can see currently is that the GFS and ECM are overdoing the uppers in terms of the depth of cold - however I have tended to find the GFS to be quite accurate in this setup - I’m not even sure how accurate the MetO model is in terms of upper air temps - I’m not sure if this data has even been available for that long? 

Edited January 13, 2018 by Joe Bloggs

[northwestsnow]

Just now, damianslaw said:

At this range, confidence is low where snow might fall and be disruptive. However, I would suspect it will be Monday morning when a yellow weather warning for snow is put out for the NW region, and every chance this may upgrade to an amber on Tuesday when the effects of the upcoming spell become clearer. In recent weeks, warning have appeared in very short timeframes, areas suddenly being placed under a warning and others taken out.

Next week could be a memorable spell for snow enthusiasts.

Fingers crossed Damian

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

I’ve learnt over the years to not place too much faith in TV forecasts (more than a day ahead), or even the text forecasts on the MetO website in situations like this. The apps are a joke until you get within 48 hours, then the hourly forecasts from the UKV can be very accurate in determining streamer locations, etc. Bear in mind I am talking about convective setups - I have seen time and time again for the risks to be underplayed by the MetO and the BBC until we’re extremely close to the event for NW England.

To save yourself going mad, it’s better to stick to the NWP and your own local knowledge to get a good gauge of whether there is snow potential. The main risk I can see currently is that the GFS and ECM are overdoing the uppers in terms of the depth of cold - however I have tended to find the GFS to be quite accurate in this setup - I’m not even sure how accurate the MetO model is in terms of upper air temps - I’m not sure if this data has even been available for that long? 

yes thats a fair post Joe.

Lets see what the 12zs bring- hopefully upgrades

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

yes thats a fair post Joe.

Lets see what the 12zs bring- hopefully upgrades

Hopefully mate. You have got me twitching about the MetO uppers though ;-) 

 

[SP1986]

I'll settle for a major hail storm, some strong winds and some tasty convective potential should it arise. It'll also be interesting to see the temperature differences locally.

[severe snowstorm]

Just now, SP1986 said:

I'll settle for a major hail storm, some strong winds and some tasty convective potential should it arise. It'll also be interesting to see the temperature differences locally.

I've had thundersnow many times from this type of setup. Polar North Westerlies can be very active.

[Spah1]

i’ll look forward to the rain then.  

[Chris.R]

 I’ll settle for some good lightning and hail and some nice close thunder. That will do fine from this set up. 

[pip22]

I don't like where the latest GFS is going atm. I prefer yesterdays runs with snow even at sea level.

I'm gonna hope the models will drop the storm altogether or shift it south.

But the good thing it is not last minute downgrade.

 

 

 

Edited January 13, 2018 by pip22

[Day 10]

Anyway, still plenty of time for upgrades and downgrades between now and mon. A subtle shift in wind strength and direction could make all the difference to who gets what.

[Had Worse]

Ive just seen the preciip totals upto the 20 Jan posted on the MOD thread and its getting upto 90mm.  

Based on that , what would be the snow equivalent (I'm thinking the tops of the peaks here around 300-400m)?

[chris78]

this is how people get so disappointed, the models are not clear cut, the bbc and met are not really on board yet, but when people bring this up they are told why the bbc are wrong, well the chances are they are not wrong, the signals are you will need elevation for lying snow, if you don't have elevation you are probably out of luck. 

[WillinGlossop]

25 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Ive just seen the preciip totals upto the 20 Jan posted on the MOD thread and its getting upto 90mm.  

Based on that , what would be the snow equivalent (I'm thinking the tops of the peaks here around 300-400m)?

Netweather going for 96cm here, weather outlook 49cm, metcheck 68cm, xcweather 46cm.... if all that 90mm fell as snow (doubtful) it’d be 90cm...dependent on moisture content of snow... 

[gearbox100]

Honestly see nothing coming from this for me in st Helens. I think Manchester may do well maybe. I think I'll review on Monday evening before buying a sledge.