Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

Some dissension between the models vis convective activity Thursday and Friday so just a quick look at Icon. And the latter is certainly bringing the front through quicker than the ecm and gfs

[knocker]

Max temps and 1800 Synops

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[knocker]

The overall outlook for the next few days has not changed to any great extent from yesterday thus cooler and cloudier in many regions for the next couple of days before warming somewhat towards the end of the week, Here the picture is slightly more complicated as TS Chris enters the fray and phases with the main trough by the weekend.(According to the gfs)

Meanwhile the cold front has continued to track south overnight and will continue to do do so through today and this introduces less humid and cooler air to all eventually. But Scotland and possibly N. Ireland will be cloudy courtesy of other frontal systems with possibly the odd spot of rain, and also eastern coastal regions with the onset of a quite fresh N/NE breeze Cloud will also bubble up during the day in the south west giving the odd shower.

Over Tonight and through tomorrow remaining cloudy over Scotland and N. Ireland with patchy rain/drizzle and still cloudy down the east coast and generally more cloud in southern and central regions with showers popping up here and there. Again cooler than of late but still temps generally a little above average except for the far north where most of the precipitation will fall.

 By Thursday the ridge is building in from the south west once again and temps are once more on the up but quite a bit of convective activity will be initiated and pinning this down is going to pose the usual problems of where and how intense.

A not dissimilar picture on Friday but by now the upper low mentioned in previous posts has entered the picture south west of Iceland (not forgetting the opening comments)

Another warm day in southern and central regions on Saturday but fronts associated with the Atlantic trough are edging closer and already bringing cloud and some rain to the north west. How much progress they make, and the possible creation of a slack low pressure regime courtesy of the enduring block to the north east is the next major question and should be fascinating model watching

 

Edited July 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Interesting tweet by Todd Crawford as currently the vortex is quite intense over the Arctic, essentially 'locking' much of the colder air in. Coupled with the ongoing SST anomalies it's difficult to envisage any major changes forthcoming vis the UK weather. Obviously that doesn't exclude unsettled periods and ongoing adjustments to the surface analysis but temps should remain above average (allowing for regional fluctuations) and pretty dry in most areas,

[knocker]

The ecm is not so keen to phase Chris with the main trough but still has the front(s) effecting the north west by Saturday.having previously indicated a fair bit of showery/thundery activity on Friday.

This morning's 0600 UTC geostationary

 

Edited July 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

And if you don't phase Chris with the main low.........hey ho says Rowley

 

[knocker]

A tad academic really but vis the convection on Friday, taking a sample forecast sounding in the west Midlands there certainly is the potential for some hefty showers

 

[knocker]

Precipitation from the ecm det. run

[knocker]

Chris currently

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=03L&product=ir

[Man With Beard]

Heatwave day 16:

Is it still a heatwave? In theory it has ended for many today, but with temperatures still possibly to 80F in the south west, it hasn't for all. So I'll carry on with this heatwave "watch" until two successive days pass without any temperature in the UK above 27C (81F). Fair?

AROME: England 26-27 in spots of the SW (more widely 22-25C), Wales 26-27 in spots, Ireland generally 22-25, possible 26-27 in SE areas, N Ireland 20-21, Scotland not shown (possible 25 around Borders)

ARGEPE: England 26-27 in spots of the SW (more widely 22-24C), Wales 24-25, Ireland 25-26 in SE, N Ireland 20-22, Scotland 21 around Borders but more generally 16-19.

[knocker]

Just to update the EPS NH anomaly posted earlier when discussing the TC tweet. As can be seen the controlling dynamic remains the PV and the strong ridge/block eastern/northern Europe aided and abetted by low pressure in SE Europe.

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1140 UTC

[knocker]

The frontal cloud and rain over western Scotland, as can be seen on the 1500 UTC geostationary, will hang around the rest of this evening and overnight. Whilst elsewhere it will be clearer and less humid than of late as the cold front clears to the south. The exception may well be the far south west.

 

Edited July 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The gfs has TS Chris popping around the high pressure as it engages the jet and then eventually phases with the main trough before linking to the low west of Iberia. At this stage a distinct delineation between the cooler and warmer air.

[knocker]

[knocker]

The ecm take on TS Chris and the main trough with associated front(s) that slow as they hit the block but start to impact the nrth west on Sunday but still leaving a very warm weekend in most areas after a fair amount of convection on Friday

 

 

[knocker]

It's self-evident that there isn't much point in getting too excited vis the detail for the beginning of next week until the track of hurricane/TS Chris becomes clearer.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/

 

[knocker]

Firstly the latest advisory on TS Chris as this has some relevance for the rest of thus week.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

Back to the here and now.

Although high pressure will essentially be most influential during the short range frontal systems are currently bringing cloud and patchy rain to western Scotland and N. Ireland and this will persist during the day moving a tad further south along Irish Sea coasts. Low cloud across eastern coastal regions may also persist for much of the day but elsewhere should be sunny and warm, albeit not as much as of late, apart from the odd shower that may pop up in the west. The temp variation will reflect the above comments.

Overnight and through Thursday the cloud and patchy rain will persist over Scotland and N. Ireland and also the low cloud may well linger along northeast/eastern coastal regions but elsewhere it's starting to warm up again and this will initiate some convection and showery/thundery outbreaks, mainly in western regions.

Friday continuing to warm up as the ridge noses north east but still the likelihood of thundery showers in the west that could be reasonable widespread. Out in the western Atlantic Chris has appeared south west of the main trough and is engaging the jet.

Over the weekend Chris will track north east and be absorbed by the main trough which moves into a position S/SE of Iceland. The fronts associated with this will move east but stall to a large extent on hitting the blocking ridge. This leads to a quite marked NW/SE split over the weekend with some very warm/hot temps in the south east, initiating some thundery outbreaks on Saturday

 

[knocker]

The thundery outbreaks on Friday perhaps around the Bristol area

[knocker]

Further on the convective front....tomorrow.

 

[knocker]

The ecm agrees a fair bit of convection on Friday but perhaps a tad slower with the front and thus a generally warm/hot weekend before a more changeable period

After a clear start to the day an ingress of Stratus here which ties in with the 0600 geostationary.

[Man With Beard]

Morning all - I'm going to declare my heatwave watch "closed", as yesterday failed to get above 80F anywhere (79.3F/26.3C in Chivenor), and for today, both ARGEPE and AROME are looking like 25C or 26C at the very best.

For a statistic nerd like me, a bit disappointing as I was half wondering if we could get through the whole of July with maxes above 80F on every single day

The next two/three days look like hovering around the 25/26/27C mark tops, which is very respectable indeed of course, and would probably be considered heatwave weather outside of July and August.

[knocker]

Latest advisory and position of Chris post TS

[knocker]

The 1200 UTC geostationary

[knocker]

 

Edited July 11, 2018 by knocker