Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

The outlook is generally cooler than of late but tending to warm up again in the south towards the end of the period when regional variations are again quite noticeable

.

The cold front that brought some rain to most areas yesterday and introduced the cooler air is now moving into the North Sea but it did wave slightly and is slow to clear parts of the north east as can be seen on the 0300 WV

But this will quickly clear this morning leaving much of the country to have a clear and sunny day. But as temps rise showers will pop up, mainly in western areas but certainly not exclusively, some of which could be quite heavy.

A not dissimilar day on Wednesday with perhaps fewer showers.

By Thursday temps are on the rise in the south east but frontal systems are approaching from the north west so Scotland and N. Ireland tendining to cloudy and cooler with perhaps some patchy rain later. Perhaps still some isolated showers elsewhere.This NW/SE split will become an increasing trend.

By Friday the frontal systems have continued slowly tracking south east introducing loud and some patchy rain more generally in the north west whilst temps continue to rise further south, particularly the south east. Humidity will also be on the rise so perhaps certainly not as comfortable than of late.

A not dissimilar story on Saturday when the NW/SE split is quite marked

At T120 the NH profile is such and the key development appears to be the strong ridging in NE North America and the Labrador Straits. Be interesting to see how the ecm handles this

Edited July 17, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

This morning's updated fax for Thursday has the fronts approaching the north west by midday and tracking south east through Friday.  The ecm take on the movement of the cloud and patchy rain and the establishment of the NW/SE split.

 

Edited July 17, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm is not adverse to the ridging over NE North America at T120.

The 0600 UTC geostationary shows a lot of cloud down western regions, Wouldn't argue with that as a layer of Sc here with the odd large Cu.

[knocker]

The 0900 UTC geostationary

[knocker]

EPS 15 day precipitation

[knocker]

Some heavy thundery showers in NE Scotland this PM

[knocker]

Plenty of showers around on the midday MODIS but not around this neck of the woods. A few small Cu under an broken sheet of high Sc. Figures

 

Edited July 17, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

And apropos nothing at all, 31.6C inside the Arctic Circle at Kevo in N. Finland earlier

 

Edited July 17, 2018 by knocker

[Methuselah]

1 hour ago, knocker said:

And apropos nothing at all, 31.6C inside the Arctic Circle at Kevo in N. Finland earlier

 

Bring on the Northeasterlies!

[knocker]

The ridging over NE North America is still of some importance as it initiates the plunge into the central Atlantic of the next trough associated with a quite intense vortex lobe over NW Greenland/ N Canada.How far east the trough progresses against the block  and where, and if any, deconstruction occurs is something that the det. runs will have to sort.

[knocker]

This evening's updated fax charts Thurs > Friday with the frontal system tracking south east across the UK. The ecm covering the period which initiates a NW/SE split.

[knocker]

Going off piste for a moment to look at the EPS medium term anomaly and not much has changed.

Still quite an intense vortex/lobe NW Greenland with associated trough south into the Atlantic with a tenuous link to the low pressure in south east Europe. And in between the latter and the other trough associated with the vortex there remains the strong ridging/block stretching across north west Europe. Thus systems struggling east tend not to get too far and this tends towards a N/S split over the UK with temps still above average with the likelihood of marked regional variations. Obviously the detail is where the det runs come in.

And as it happens this evening ecm run fits quite neatly. In the short range it initiates the next Atlantic trough with some ridging in the NE of North America but it doesn't get too far east and the 6-10 anomaly is very similar to the EPS. What isn't covered with the means is of course if the trough deconstructs and creates another cut off low which would make things more interesting.

Might as well add this evening's NOAA

 

Edited July 17, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Nothing to add to the outlook from previous posts so straight into the detail

Although it's been a clear night for many cloud associated with the weakening occlusion is effecting mainly western areas as can be seen on the 0300 satellite image and the midnight Camborne sounding.(frontal surface inversion? and Ci )

This will probably continue through the day with showers popping up in western and northern areas whilst elsewhere it will be dry and sunny, albeit not as warm as of late.

The showers will die out during the evening leaving a partially clear night, some cloud will linger, portending a dry and sunny day on Thursday, perhaps the odd shower in the north east and becoming warmer again in the south east. But by early evening a frontal system associated with a shallow low south east of Iceland will bring cloud and rain into north west Scotland

Overnight and through Friday the fronts will struggle south east against the ridge which creates a marked NW/SE split with cloud and patchy rain in the north and sunnier and increasingly warmer temps in the south.

By Saturday the fronts have coalesced into a weakening occlusion straddling the country so perhaps still some light patchy rain in places and maybe the odd shower popping up in the warmer south east.( as usual the model temps are merely a guide). But a new frontal system associated with another low over Iceland will bring more cloud and light rain to north west Scotland during the evening.

This rather messy frontal structure will bring cloud and some patchy rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland on Sunday, and perhaps western areas in Wales and England also whilst the south east becomes increasingly warmer as the old occlusion clears to the south.

[knocker]

Updated fax charts Friday > Saturday and ecm

 

[knocker]

A fair bit of cloud around on the 0600 UTC geostationary. Certainly more or less full cover of quite high Sc here

[knocker]

A fair bit of cloud about today. The High res, MODIS at 1240 UTC, the 1300 chart and 1200 analysis.

And just a passing thought. The continued strength and resilience of the block to the north east as portrayed on the EPS mean NH anomaly today is really quite impressive.

And talking about the north east, 33C in Kevo n, Finland today

Edited July 18, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

33 minutes ago, knocker said:

A fair bit of cloud about today. The High res, MODIS at 1240 UTC, the 1300 chart and 1200 analysis.

And just a passing thought. The continued strength and resilience of the block to the north east as portrayed on the EPS mean NH 10-15 anomaly today is really quite impressive.

And talking about the north east, 33C in Kevo n, Finland today

 

[knocker]

This evening's gfs has significantly altered the shape and orientation of the upper trough the the NW of the UK which obviously impacts the later evolution. Need to see if this a just wobble

Edited July 18, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Fax charts Frid > Saturday and ecm

[knocker]

[knocker]

 

Edited July 18, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

As a matter of interest further to the above

[mb018538]

Interesting that one knocker. Finland had its hottest country-wide day on record yesterday, average temp 24.1 smashing the old record of 22.4 by miles. Lapland county at 70N recorded 33.4c as well, another record. This ain’t no ordinary heatwave.

[knocker]

The outlook is for it to become very warm/hot and humid in SE/E regions whilst the NW/W is cloudier and cooler with some patchy rain/drizzle at times. This regional split is symptomatic of the slight adjustments to the pattern and may, as it slowly evolves, become more W/E It's all rather knife edgy.

It has been cloudy in many places overnight

And this patchy cloud is likely through the day but in areas with clear periods it will get quite warm in the light winds. Might be the odd shower in the north of England and southern and east Scotland. But through the evening some cloud and patchy rain will effect north west Scotland courtesy of fronts associated with a low east of Iceland.

The fronts and associated cloud and rain will push east overnight Thursday through Friday into the rest of Scotland, N. England, Wales and the west Midlands but all the time weakening against the ridge whilst the south east becomes increasingly humid and warm. This could well trigger some storms, particular along the convergence line.

Saturday sees the regional split developing as the weakening fronts stall the south and east become very humid and warm with perhaps the odd shower and relatively cooler elsewhere.

Sunday another warm day but another frontal system will bring some stronger winds and patchy rain to N. Ireland and western Scotland.

A not dissimilar story on Monday but a wave does start to form on the front establishing a more obvious delineation between the NW and SE where it becomes very warm

 

 

Edited July 19, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The updated fax charts Friday > Sunday