SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Just checked beeb and there is no forecast of snow now for Tuesday. Just checked my phone weather and it’s been upgraded 

I’m going to check the latest fax charts now.

They’re usually the first to show any expected troughs in the flow.

[CK1981]

8 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Just checked beeb and there is no forecast of snow now for Tuesday. Just checked my phone weather and it’s been upgraded 

 

8 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Just checked beeb and there is no forecast of snow now for Tuesday. Just checked my phone weather and it’s been upgraded 

This is the sort of thing we’ll begin to see more of. Notice the small trough in the flow heading west towards us off the North Sea. These bring more organised bands of snow and often pop up at the last minute.

Edited February 2, 2018 by CK1981

[Coopsy]

3 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

 

This is the sort of thing we’ll begin to see more of. Notice the small trough in the flow heading west towards us off the North Sea. These bring more organised bands of snow and often pop up at the last minute.

I think it's looking good for some coverage Sunday into Monday. Don't see anything crazy but as you say if things start pepping up a few inches can easily accumulate

[lassie23]

12 minutes ago, DonnaThw said:

Just checked beeb and there is no forecast of snow now for Tuesday. Just checked my phone weather and it’s been upgraded 

bbc are very cautious to predict snow from now as things aren't clear at the moment

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, c00ps said:

I think it's looking good for some coverage Sunday into Monday. Don't see anything crazy but as you say if things start pepping up a few inches can easily accumulate

And with the cold uppers and low dew points, snow will settle quickly, so no slush.

[Coopsy]

6 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

And with the cold uppers and low dew points, snow will settle quickly, so no slush.

Totally agree - this is the main difference to the past few years. The cold will be there, dew points low and the snow will stick easily and stay. Exciting times. We just need a bit of luck

[Daniel*]

The so called ‘hype’ is warranted we in the SE have not had an opportunity like this in years and I’m actually somewhat for once hopeful it will deliver for most if all. Probably those elsewhere in the north may not do so well compared to us - and they’re feeling bitter, well we have been at the back of the queue for all this time! 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Daniel*

[lassie23]

anyone got any snow yet?

[Tn9]

2 hours ago, lassie23 said:

 I don't like snow

Cor... You have been spoiled then :-) 

[warrenb]

Hasn't he

[SMU]

Guys based on the models at hand ( basically echoing yesterday’s post )

Sunday is transition day where we see the -8c isotherm spread & mix down across the day, so overall a cold day with temps peaking early - maybe 4 ish around mid morning but come 3-4 PM they will plummeting - So I would benchmark

3c @ 2pm

2c @ 4-5pm

Somewhere in there is the transition from rain showers to sleet > snow probs late evening-

The allignment indicates that early doors only favours East / mid Kent & suffolk & Norfolk 

However developments in the models for the past 24 hours indicate that the wind will flatten off more towards ENE even Easterly - bringing colder & colder air through Monday- so overnight may get down to 1-2c which then may be the maxima Monday before dropping further late in the day-

The biggest risk in terms of increase from the SE highlighted by JMA 06z & ECM 00z is from the formation of a small wave moving west out of Benelux somewhere late mon increasing the snow potential ( all snow by then ) Then that risk maintains across Tues & poss into weds -

So I would classify In terms of risk

Sun rain > sleet then to snow flurries mainly restricted to Kent / Suffolk / east Essex / Norfolk

Mon onwards risk spreading West ....

S

Edited February 2, 2018 by Steve Murr

[Tn9]

25 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

The so called ‘hype’ is warranted we in the SE have not had an opportunity like this in years and I’m actually somewhat for once hopeful it will deliver for most if all. Probably those elsewhere in the north may not do so well compared to us - and they’re feeling bitter, well we have been at the back of the queue for all this time! 

I’m actually somewhat for once hopeful it will deliver for most if all. Probably...I know I've misquoted you..but proberly...  and..  more than likely...  are good forecasting words :-) 

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, TN9 said:

I’m actually somewhat for once hopeful it will deliver for most if all. Probably...I know I've misquoted you..but proberly...  and..  more than likely...  are good forecasting words :-) 

I’m not Shakespeare, it gets it across. 

[CK1981]

That’s damn mild sector on the GFS brings heavy rain for a time on Thursday.

If that happens it will be very disappointing.

We need that to be squeezed out in future runs.

[CK1981]

I don’t like the way each run is going. The really cold uppers are being watered down. We had widespread -10 / -11 and some even lower. We are now in -8 teritory on the GFS (UKMO is colder briefly to start). Overall feeling a little disappointed.

[snowray]

3 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I don’t like the way each run is going. The really cold uppers are being watered down. We had widespread -10 / -11 and some even lower. We are now in -8 teritory on the GFS (UKMO is colder briefly to start). Overall feeling a little disappointed.

Happens every time, and it ain't even started yet!

[Laurence Hill]

3 minutes ago, snowray said:

Happens every time, and it ain't even started yet!

I think some people need a dose of SM.

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Sharpedge said:

I think some people need a dose of SM.

I’ll remain positive and see what the ECM brings, but we can’t sugar coat what the latest output is showing so far.

Certainly not as good as previous outputs, but things will change as we move along.

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I don’t like the way each run is going. The really cold uppers are being watered down. We had widespread -10 / -11 and some even lower. We are now in -8 teritory on the GFS (UKMO is colder briefly to start). Overall feeling a little disappointed.

I’d say that’s a tad premature to call for now GFS 12z is not good but in a broader sense from what we have had it is. The seriously cold uppers seems to have evaporated, still very cold snow conducive air across our region. It looks at least five days of -8C uppers somewhere in our region. Very cold week. 

[CK1981]

Just now, Daniel* said:

I’d say that’s a tad premature to call for now GFS 12z is not good but in a broader sense from what we have had it is. The seriously cold uppers seems to have evaporated, still very cold snow conducive air across our region. It looks at least five days of -8C uppers somewhere in our region. Very cold week. 

Cold, yes, but not a good as what it was showing.

It would have been great to see the -11 to continue, but for the time being they’ve disappeared.

Maybe the ECM will bring a little hope....

[Neilsouth]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Sun rain > sleet then to snow flurries mainly restricted to Kent / Suffolk / east Essex / Norfolk

Mon onwards risk spreading West ....

S

Rain - Sleet -Snow flurries?

 

What a load of cack!

[Jimmyh]

OMG this hasn't even started or materialised yet. Why are some people mocking and slating what Steve and other people say. Watered down possibly. CK do you want the Holy Grail or cold and snow. Mark my words there will be no rain on Thursday it will just be too cold. This blinking cold has really not even started and people are writing it off.

If I see snow fall from the sky or if it is there when I wake on Tuesday morning I will be happy. Remember what steve said wave coming in from Benelux. it has been modelled on the GFS snow risk charts getting closer and closer. I will comment when it snows or if people are being ridiculous.

Snow starved southerners yes realistic southerners before it has even arrived or looking at its breakdown even more yes.....................................................

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

OMG this hasn't even started or materialised yet. Why are some people mocking and slating what Steve and other people say. Watered down possibly. CK do you want the Holy Grail or cold and snow. Mark my words there will be no rain on Thursday it will just be too cold. This blinking cold has really not even started and people are writing it off.

If I see snow fall from the sky or if it is there when I wake on Tuesday morning I will be happy. Remember what steve said wave coming in from Benelux. it has been modelled on the GFS snow risk charts getting closer and closer. I will comment when it snows or if people are being ridiculous.

Snow starved southerners yes realistic southerners before it has even arrived or looking at its breakdown even more yes.....................................................

I never said I wanted the Holy Grail. I was merely commenting on what the models were showing. The uppers have been watered down somewhat and the GFS is showing rain on Thursday. 

It may not rain on Thursday but neither you or I know that at this stage.

You can climb back on your perch now!

At what point in any of my statements have I written anything off?

Some people need to chill a bit ?

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by CK1981

[PLANET THANET]

5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Some people need to chill a bit ?

I think a lot of us will be chilling a bit next week 

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

I think a lot of us will be chilling a bit next week 

I agree ??