SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[tinybill]

45 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

That’s a new occlusion, it wasn’t on earlier  fax charts. The other feature on Monday is very interesting!

you can add

wed /fri both looking interesting  for are aera

 

Edited February 2, 2018 by tinybill

[Daniel*]

Interestingly both GFS and ICON take frontal band on the 6th all the way through our region and it maintains its intensity somewhat.

ARPEGE isn’t interested whatsoever it hardly makes any progress and disintegrates I favour this.. 

[Met4Cast]

I have a feeling the "streamer" is going to be more of an East Kent clipper than a fully fledged snow streamer, so extreme SE parts could do well out of this, in a rough line

South and East at highest risk from the streamer based on the FAX and the APERGE precip signal

NW-MR also similar for the East Kent clipper

Both models do interestingly then move the streamer Northwards through the course of Monday, but it doesn't last long before it fizzles away.

So, Sunday night into Monday morning E Kent seeing possibly heavy snow showers, accumulations? Yes but no idea how much, depends how lucky you get. Then through Monday it moves Northwards, rest of the region sees snow shower activity before turning drier Monday eve

[Neilsouth]

22 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Local weather just said the possibility of snow sunday

National said.....

Showers into the south east, may be a bit wintry... A BIT? 

[stainesbloke]

Let’s not get too carried away....there is a chance of some decent snow events but it’s more likely to be flurries (at the moment). Of course, things could change for the better.

[CK1981]

I see the usual chaos continues in the MOD thread. It’s like watching children bicker in the playground ?

[CK1981]

6 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Let’s not get too carried away....there is a chance of some decent snow events but it’s more likely to be flurries (at the moment). Of course, things could change for the better.

I’d be happy with a few flurries and some hard frosts!

[tomp456]

Well it looks like coastal west sussex is going to miss the snow. 

Haven't seen any settling snow for about eight to nine years when we had about three successive years of heavy snow!!! 

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I’d be happy with a few flurries and some hard frosts!

Me too! Especially if loads of sunshine, too. Miles better than gales and rain.

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Me too! Especially if loads of sunshine, too. Miles better than gales and rain.

Totally! I do a lot of walking and it’s been so nice to go out in the crisp air.

Edited February 2, 2018 by CK1981

[stainesbloke]

2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Totally! I do a lot of walking and it’s been so nice to go out in the crisp air.

Yes, January has been a bit of a mud-fest here so it’ll be nice to have something a bit different! 

[snowblind]

Well just watched a really depressing week ahead forecast on news 24. Mention of perhaps a bit of wintriness over the hills for us on Tuesday. Temps of 4 and 5 all week. Showers on Sunday and Monday of rain, perhaps sleet. And getting less cold by the end of the week as the winds turn westerly. 

According to that not really a cold spell at all just slightly chilly and damp. The fronts from the west getting killed before they get very far into the country and providing very little precipitation even out west. Not cold enough for anything coming from the east to fall as snow either. Not sure what's happened to the possible significant snow for Sunday night mentioned yesterday by Helen Willets.

Doesn't really seem to match with what's showing in the models so I'm hoping it's just rubbish bbc forecasting, and there will be more interesting weather next week than they are suggesting.

Edited February 2, 2018 by snowblind

[Neilsouth]

24 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I’d be happy with a few flurries and some hard frosts!

I've already seen flurries and hard frosts..... I've seen flurries every year and the odd hard frost. Snow laying on the ground however making everything white? Not since 2010

[CK1981]

5 minutes ago, Neilsouth said:

I've already seen flurries and hard frosts..... I've seen flurries every year and the odd hard frost. Snow laying on the ground however making everything white? Not since 2010

Usually I’m in a great location for hard frosts, but they have been lacking this winter.

[Neilsouth]

5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Usually I’m in a great location for hard frosts, but they have been lacking this winter.

I live about 300ft+ now with upper parts about 500-600ft  and we've had some very hard frosts

[Met4Cast]

So, next few days then

Sunday, shower activity in the East picking up during the day thanks to a weather front though generally light and scattered. Heavier showers into the SE Sunday night into Monday 

 

Monday continues with snow showers into the SE/SE parts of East Anglia likely giving accumulations to some. The shower "band" will drift Northwards towards the London area during the afternoon, turning dryer further South

Just for fun, Tuesday/Wednesday looks.. interesting.

It looks like the front reaches our region and that at the moment, is the pivot point. The mild sector stays well to the West so theres the potential for the front to stall and move South over us, giving us several hours of snowfall, albeit probably mostly light. Though this of course is very subject to change. 

All in all, plenty of opportunity for us down here, for a change.

[Froze were the Days]

34 days without an air frost here now...have to go back to January 2008 for the last time that happened. So that about wraps up how January went, fairly mild, fairly wet and largely quite cloudy - rubbish infact.

[lassie23]

23 minutes ago, snowblind said:

Well just watched a really depressing week ahead forecast on news 24. Mention of perhaps a bit of wintriness over the hills for us on Tuesday. Temps of 4 and 5 all week. Showers on Sunday and Monday of rain, perhaps sleet. And getting less cold by the end of the week as the winds turn westerly. 

According to that not really a cold spell at all just slightly chilly and damp. The fronts from the west getting killed before they get very far into the country and providing very little precipitation even out west. Not cold enough for anything coming from the east to fall as snow either. Not sure what's happened to the possible significant snow for Sunday night mentioned yesterday by Helen Willets.

Doesn't really seem to match with what's showing in the models so I'm hoping it's just rubbish bbc forecasting, and there will be more interesting weather next week than they are suggesting.

It's looking like an over hyped, damp squib, dog biscuit of a cold spell.

[Chris101]

1 hour ago, CK1981 said:

That feature on Monday isn’t a streamer though, it’s an occlusion moving across the area from the continent and therefore giving snow to more of us.

Streamers usually, if my understanding is correct, form as small trough features dependant on wind flow, uppers etc. and are more localised.

Think your right there, streamers on a fax are marked with a dashed line if i remember correctly.

[SMU]

2 hours ago, TN9 said:

Exactly what I thought.... Dp.. 850s .. Seem all dandy.. I Dont get it either...literallty lol.. Somethings got to give surely.. either its wrong or its wrong otherwise it would.. Wouldn't it???? ? 

Remember it takes a few hours for the uppers to mix down

Sunday is transition day so late Sunday - not lunchtime !

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Think your right there, streamers on a fax are marked with a dashed line if i remember correctly.

The guy employed at the met office who’s responsible for annotating the Thames streamer on the fax chart probably got made redundant after 2009...

[CK1981]

8 minutes ago, Chris101 said:

Think your right there, streamers on a fax are marked with a dashed line if i remember correctly.

That’s right! The feature on Monday is an occlusion moving west from the near continent.

[Met4Cast]

2009 streamer wasn't forecasted, at least not to the extent that it happened. 2010 was partially forecasted but again, not to the extent that it happened.

The point is, streamers historically are not typically mentioned in the forecasts other than a passing "snow showers in this area", and they definitely don't show up as forecasted streamers on FAX charts very often. 

Conditions aren't overly perfect for a streamer and we definitely wont be seeing feet of snow, but a good covering from hours of light snow is certainly possible if one sets up.

[snowrye]

Still got a feeling its going to go the shape of the pear

[CK1981]

4 minutes ago, snowrye said:

Still got a feeling its going to go the shape of the pear

I think it will be cold, but nothing exceptional next week and not as good as it was showing. I guess temperatures about 3c by day and sub zero at night. Just a normal winter cold spell, which is something that’s been lacking for a few years. 

Edited February 2, 2018 by CK1981