SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[Daniel*]

33 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

And neither am I being pessimistic, never have been!

All I have done is highlight what is being shown for next week.

I also said it’s looking good towards the end of the month, so that would be optimistic.

I never understand why you always have to put a negative spin on everything I say. Maybe that makes you the pessimist ?

 

I just find it frankly annoying and tiresome how defeatist some are inclined to be I don’t know why this is, I know myself I’d know if this was not looking good it’s not looking great indeed, but reasonable enough. Has anyone said people are going to be cut off, or the Thames is going to freeze over? I sense the exaggeration is coming from elsewhere. I’ve been model watching for a long time and that’s just doing a huge injustice to what’s coming up. I can’t help but feel negative when something is unrightfully undermined when there is the potential for more than what we think. 

Edited February 3, 2018 by Daniel*

[CK1981]

Just now, Daniel* said:

I just find it frankly annoying and tiresome how defeatist some are inclined to be I don’t know why this is, I know myself I’d know if this was not looking good it’s not looking great indeed, but reasonable enough. Has anyone said people are going to be cut off, or the Thames is going to freeze over? I sense the exaggeration is coming from elsewhere. I’ve been model watching for a long time and that’s just doing a huge injustice to what’s coming up. I can’t help but feel negative when something is unrightfully undermined. 

Well you don’t know me at all. I’m a very optimistic person, always have been.

If you read my posts and misunderstand the context, there’s nothing I can do about that.....you yourself have admitted to jumping the gun.

I can assure you, I want nothing more than a proper cold spell and I’m confident we’ll see it at some point this month.

[snowray]

06z EURO 4 is out. Our first proper little blob of snow is showing up at 48hrs, north of the Thames though, none the less I would think that there will be some flurries around for many of us particularly if you are on slightly higher ground and a bit inland.

[Radiating Dendrite]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I just find it frankly annoying and tiresome how defeatist some are inclined to be I don’t know why this is, I know myself I’d know if this was not looking good it’s not looking great indeed, but reasonable enough. Has anyone said people are going to be cut off, or the Thames is going to freeze over? I sense the exaggeration is coming from elsewhere. I’ve been model watching for a long time and that’s just doing a huge injustice to what’s coming up. I can’t help but feel negative when something is unrightfully undermined when there is the potential for more than what we think. 

I think it's called being realistic.

Getting over a foot of snow is the equivalent of when Leicester won the league. It does happen but is very rare! 

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Thought I was in the wrong thread for a minute, no point in arguing over specifics, we'll find out in a day or two one way or the other.

So far today it's dull and dry, no breeze, and clouds very slow moving, I think things may have started to move back west here, but not very noticeable, so could be wrong.

Still still and grey up here, Helena, and nowt seems to be moving much, 4C...

As for the bickering, the weather will just do what it wants; anyway, with forecast temps of 4-5C tomorrow, twenty-foot-deep snow drifts don't appear to be on the cards!

PS: Couldn't give a monkey's about windchill; it never turns rain into snow!

Edited February 3, 2018 by Ed Stone

[throwoff]

I think some people are more liable to downplay as much as others are liable to overplay.

The forecast for Kent and Medway’s snow is better than we have seen in years.. it’s not blizzard conditions but we should have enough for a snowball fight.

[CK1981]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Still still and grey up here, Helena, and nowt seems to be moving much, 4C...

As for the bickering, the weather will just do what it wants; anyway, with forecast temps of 4-5C tomorrow, twenty-foot-deep snow drifts don't appear to be on the cards!

Whatever happens, it’ll be interesting to watch it unfold.

I hope we all get some wintry surprises next week.....it’s about time ❄️

[lassie23]

We do need some reality checks on this site, the cold spell looks dog biscuits at the moment, hope it improves by tomorrow.

[lottiekent]

2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Whatever happens, it’ll be interesting to watch it unfold.

I hope we all get some wintry surprises next week.....it’s about time ❄️

Exactly, we usually find surprises out of these setups and I like the excitement of radar watching and waiting to see what happens.

I am looking forward to the next few days. Certainly more exciting prospects than we’ve had the last few winters. 

[lassie23]

We do need some reality checks on this site, the cold spell looks dog biscuits at the moment, hope it improves by tomorrow.

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

I think it's called being realistic.

Getting over a foot of snow is the equivalent of when Leicester won the league. It does happen but is very rare! 

I wouldn’t say that rare and when I did say that I said localised on north downs and that would be it cumulative adding up over a few days, not just from one single big snowfall. 

[lottiekent]

Meant to also mention the actual weather..

3c up at home, car says 4c down here in town. Bit grey and drizzly earlier with the odd teeny flake and then the sun even tried to make an appearance. Just dry and grey now for now though.

Edited February 3, 2018 by lottiekent

[CK1981]

The front seems to be stalling now and will start to head back west soon.

Still very grey and drizzly here with a temperature of 4c.

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, throwoff said:

I think some people are more liable to downplay as much as others are liable to overplay.

The forecast for Kent and Medway’s snow is better than we have seen in years.. it’s not blizzard conditions but we should have enough for a snowball fight.

Agreed. It certainly seems apparent in mod thread. I responded to one chap that said it’s typical February weather not even a cold spell. I need one of those gifs! 

[lassie23]

lol stupid computer crashed whilst posting, now i have a double post

[throwoff]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Agreed. It certainly seems apparent in mod thread. I responded to one chap that said it’s typical February weather not even a cold spell. I need one of those gifs! 

The mod thread is National, that’s it’s biggest problem.

Much as this thread is SE, for us Kent folk we are looking at a decent amount of snow, anyone further west into Sussex will be not seeing anything of note. Worth taking note of where people are posting from before saying they’re ramping.

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

lol stupid computer crashed whilst posting, now i have a double post

And yours truly 'liked' them both!

[steveinsussex]

17 minutes ago, throwoff said:

The mod thread is National, that’s it’s biggest problem.

Much as this thread is SE, for us Kent folk we are looking at a decent amount of snow, anyone further west into Sussex will be not seeing anything of note. Worth taking note of where people are posting from before saying they’re ramping.

Alright, dont rub it in

[Met4Cast]

Us being in the South-East look likely to hang onto the colder air for the longest, the mild sectors everyone is talking about never reach our region so anything that falls out of the sky from tomorrow onwards (away from extreme coasts) will be all snow!

Looking pretty good for shower activity too.

Edited February 3, 2018 by KentishDan

[alexisj9]

Still rather slow moving but westward movement now noticeable, we have lift off.

Ps not sure howlong the rain has been over me on radar, but it's definitely still dry, evaporative cooling may be, it does look like the every light rain, that never makes it to the ground during cold weather. It's definitely not drizzling or misty right now.

Edited February 3, 2018 by alexisj9

[throwoff]

1 minute ago, steveinsussex said:

Alright, dont rub it in

Apologies Steve. But you see my point. Unless you’re posting in a town specific forum (and even then I’m sure we can all remember a time it was a monsoon two streets away but dry where we are) it’s hard to claim someone is ramping or being a pessimist, we’re all looking for something in our backyard.

[lassie23]

11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

And yours truly 'liked' them both!

much obliged 

[Dami]

Don't understand why this warrants any argument, but anyway, feel sorry for us in Bedford.  

they ran out of fresh chips in sainsbury. 

 

[Chris101]

7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Agreed. It certainly seems apparent in mod thread. I responded to one chap that said it’s typical February weather not even a cold spell. I need one of those gifs! 

At the end of the day i think its peoples own faults for ramping themselves up, they look in the mod thread and see the buzz like last week going on, they have not a lot of idea what all the charts people are posting mean, they read only the bits that they want to see, and have no idea whatsoever about winter model chasing, i tend to call these people snow chasers. At the end of the day there is nothing wrong with snow chasers they want exactly the same outcome as the proper amateur meteorologist, they just tend to see the buzz and lead themselves up the garden path, and yes these tend to be the same people that when the models firm up on more detail come out with all the boring this is a load of rubbish posts. I don't see any of the more knowledgeable model enthusiasts coming out with the sulky let down posts, you tend to see as above they post charts and try and get this little winter chase underway. 

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, Dami said:

Don't understand why this warrants any argument, but anyway, feel sorry for us in Bedford.  

they ran out of fresh chips in sainsbury. 

 

So if the good people of bedford were threatened with being snowed in, they panic buy chips