Model output discussion - mid January

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

What's the amplification signal like though Nick? Near the CoD or more amplified?

More amplified than yesterday which is good news. 

In terms of amplification the GFS finally waking up in the USA. 

What NOAA were talking about re the divergence in my earlier post, looks like the GFS is now backtracking .

Edited January 23, 2018 by nick sussex

[Mucka]

12z 144 a little slower and more amplified than previous runs so perhaps better WAA into polar region day 8 through day 10

 

Thus far the GFS Op's haven't been too interested in HLB and quite firm on MLB with a UK high the form horse.

Nice frosty winter weather but I would prefer something with snow possibilities.

[nick sussex]

The GFS is still different upstream but has moved to that more amplified solution .

Its also quicker now to remove the  high from the south as it has a more favorable split in that mid Atlantic energy.

Much better upstream , that deep low about to phase with the PV over Arctic Canada should help pull the main lobe further nw.

Edited January 23, 2018 by nick sussex

[frosty ground]

As Nick says

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

As Nick says

This is quite a change from the GFS. 

We might not get the real tasty output here later but the overall earlier trend is better going forward .

[Mucka]

Have to laugh at GFS. After being much slower with the first trough it decides to be super progressive with the second.

At least the slower evolution through the more reliable time-frame allows the pattern to be backed West and no doubt future runs would be slower with the next trough so plenty of opportunity for good amplification through day 8/10.

As it is with this run we would need to wait for the second trough to clear SE but personally I would bin(or at least treat with a mountain of salt) this run from 144.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Mucka

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

This is quite a change from the GFS. 

We might not get the real tasty output here later but the overall earlier trend is better going forward .

I don't like it Nick - much prefer recent GEFS suites - the high is too rounded and less likely to be able to ridge North than the 6z.

[Mucka]

GEM day 10

GFS 6z/12z day 9

It may be a while before we get any real clue for what may develop in FI

Edited January 23, 2018 by Mucka

[nick sussex]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I don't like it Nick - much prefer recent GEFS suites - the high is too rounded and less likely to be able to ridge North than the 6z.

The problem with previous GFS runs is the cold is more likely to miss the UK and head into the Continent .

I don’t think any model has the correct solution yet and I wouldn’t bank on anything past a week verifying because of the background MJO.

I think we need to just see how things develop , could be some big changes between outputs .

[frosty ground]

That's one rather large Mid Atlantic block 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The problem with previous GFS runs is the cold is more likely to miss the UK and head into the Continent .

I don’t think any model has the correct solution yet and I wouldn’t bank on anything past a week verifying because of the background MJO.

I think we need to just see how things develop , could be some big changes between outputs .

Yes agree its more likely to miss us but that's because the ridge cant get far enough Norh which will do the same to any Northerly as it will Easterly, it will just mean that instead of a high over us we will have one of those rtm circular highs with North Westerlys with no PPN, from what I understand we need an angular momentum rebound with the GWO going into one of the higher phases or that what it seems like reading the experts posts or the MJO will just be annulled.

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The problem with previous GFS runs is the cold is more likely to miss the UK and head into the Continent .

I don’t think any model has the correct solution yet and I wouldn’t bank on anything past a week verifying because of the background MJO.

I think we need to just see how things develop , could be some big changes between outputs .

I must confess that I have become severely desensitised to the far reaches of the GFS's Fantasy Island 'miracles', Nick...I find that I can get neither elated nor deflated at what won't happen when T+384 becomes T+0...

[bluearmy]

Gfs very meekly reverting back towards the persistent ecm solution. I wonder if ecm will swing a little towards current gfs or if gfs still has further to go 

[Weather-history]

16 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

That's one rather large Mid Atlantic block 

Late January 2003esque

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Late January 2003esque

Bog standard toppler with no potency.

Id rather a late Jan 2004 type setup in Birmingham!!!

Edited January 23, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[NorthernRab]

1 minute ago, Weather-history said:

Late January 2003esque

Don't! 15 inches of snow here from that and every school in Highland closed for 3 days. 

The GFS is certainly reverting to the ECM those so I wonder if we'll see something of a halfway house or a full climb down from the GFS?

 

[NorthernRab]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Bog standard toppler with no potency.

Id rather a late Jan 2004 type setup in Birmingham!!!

Certainly not a bog standard toppler, see my post above!

[Summer Sun]

UKMO has returned on meteociel

 

[Weather-history]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Bog standard toppler with no potency.

I wouldn't say no potency , that was the infamous M11 snowstorm. 

Highway agencies were caught out and hundreds of vehicles trapped on the M11 by snow with that one.

Edited January 23, 2018 by Weather-history

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

I wouldn't say no potency , that was the infamous M11 snowstorm. 

Highway agencies were caught out and hundreds of vehicles trapped on the M11 by snow with that one.

Including london - took me five hours to get home

best trough in a northerly flow  I’ve ever been in !

anyway, onto the gefs. Kind of get the feeling this is an evolving pattern 

[Methuselah]

12 minutes ago, NorthernRab said:

Don't! 15 inches of snow here from that and every school in Highland closed for 3 days. 

The GFS is certainly reverting to the ECM those so I wonder if we'll see something of a halfway house or a full climb down from the GFS?

 

I remember that one, too...Wasn't it 18C, in Banchory, only a day or two before?

[feb1991blizzard]

GEFS slowly catching up with the Non-UK Easterly signal.

[mulzy]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS slowly catching up with the Non-UK Easterly signal.

Yes, sadly the GEFS now aligning well to the EPS.

...But it is still all FI stuff - plenty can change and probably will!

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS slowly catching up with the Non-UK Easterly signal.

Not entirely a few others get close. Just look at the spread as you would expect at that range really. I would be more concerned if GEFS consecutively were very good. Any cold signal will ebb and flow.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Not entirely a few others get close. Just look at the spread as you would expect at that range really. I would be more concerned if GEFS consecutively were very good. Any cold signal will ebb and flow.

 

Disagree, once you get the critical point coming into the 240 range and you start to see less and less with each run, you know the writing is on the wall, not saying we wont see them jumping off a cliff at 384 in the next few days but that's the next chance, 2 days ago we were getting 7 or 8 flatliners with frigid temps and a good few more looking like they would if they went further, one suite had about 15 out of 20 stonkingly good NH setups, that's gone down consistently in the last 4 runs.