Model output discussion - mid January

[bluearmy]

16 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Uppers between 0 and - 10C, more than 10 days out,  the bar is now set that low? That will give surface temperatures of around 0-4 degrees, just seasonal cold sh wweather 

No - that’s the standard winter bar for the uk

actually-generally sub zero uppers is pretty good when compared to much of the past few winters ! 

[weirpig]

1 hour ago, Daniel* said:

Coldest set of extended GEFS I’ve seen so far this winter for London actually an impressive amount of very cold options. Good to see this momentum as evident yesterday has not toned down rather opposite.

Yes  indeed  After this weekends milder blip  then there is a steady decline in  Uppers.   Around the 3rd  there is quite a cluster going for   uppers between -5  to -10   so  certainly a move to colder conditions.  Looking at the snow row  it also shows  chances of the white stuff   unheard of in post biblical times  south of the M4   at least it is something to watch.

[Duane S.]

Anybody else find this more than just a bit surprising, given the strong trade winds present? The latest forecasts showing no demise into the COD in getting to phase 6/7.

I'd be interested to hear from Catacol, FP, Tamara etc on their thoughts.

Latest ECM ens

 

JMA ens (always interesting given the proximity)

 

Canadian ens

 

No cherry picking, the rest haven't updated yet today.

 

Edited January 22, 2018 by s4lancia

[Daniel*]

1 hour ago, ArHu3 said:

Uppers between 0 and - 10C, more than 10 days out,  the bar is now set that low? That will give surface temperatures of around 0-4 degrees, just seasonal cold sh wweather 

Did I honestly just read this?

Unless your bar is astronomically high it’s bloody good do you want a 1947 redux or something? GEFS are impressive albeit not much can be taken away from this at this stage. Plenty of ice days, wintriness & frigid temperatures in the pack. My jaw dropped when I looked at them TBH you’d be very hard pressed to see something alike in FI. Although yes this is a while away, can’t help but be noticed. What do you want -20C uppers?  

 

Here’s ensembles near you Bruges, Belgium mean goes to -7C indicative of plenty of interest in cold from the E/NE.. Even with not exceptionally cold uppers, it would be very cold off continent. Encouragingly there appears to be cold air able to be advected so potentially we may have more success than the last ‘failed’ easterly if everything falls into place.

Edited January 22, 2018 by Daniel*

[swebby]

2 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

Big volcanic erruotion in the Philippines today... maybe for another thread but sure I read somewhere this can afftect weather patterns if it’s a big enough eruption? 

Thats not a straw clutching effort either lol. 

To be honest, this eruption is not actually that big  (admittedly i would'nt want to be standing next to it) so no long range effects to be had. 

Does anyone actually know if the standard models are even able to take into account an eruption of the size that puts material into the strat?

I'd assume that it would be a data set that is simply not worth incorporating in the mid range forecast models and that it is something that is left to hindsight/climate/research models.

[mountain shadow]

21 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Anybody else find this more than just a bit surprising, given the strong trade winds present? The latest forecasts showing no demise into the COD in getting to phase 6/7.

I'd be interested to hear from Catacol, FP, Tamara etc on their thoughts.

Latest ECM ens

 

JMA ens (always interesting given the proximity)

 

Canadian ens

 

No cherry picking, the rest haven't updated yet today.

 

Because, they say you should be looking at the GWO for guidance on the potential weather pattern and not the MJO alone, and the GWO does not show currently any support for blocking in a favourable position for colder weather as I understand it.

The ensembles are not picking up the La Nina disruptive influence yet I believe.

 

[Singularity]

 

Interesting to compare the EMON of 19th with today's ECMF; you can see how the amplitude has adjusted considerably upward for the P5-6 crossing and more of an uptick in P7 has appeared.

There is one significant change that has become increasingly apparent in recent days and which may well explain this trend for projected MJO ability to propagate across the Pacific with good amplitude, but I am contractually obliged to leave for others on here to figure out (sorry!).

[weirpig]

 Certainly More amplified on the 12z  than its previous run    The high becoming more dominant over us.  Ps  sometimes its very similar to the secret service in here   Nod Nod  Wink Wink.   I guess various scenarios and weather models   are similar  to information regarding the security  of the queen .   oh well 

[bobbydog]

4 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Interesting to compare the EMON of 19th with today's ECMF; you can see how the amplitude has adjusted considerably upward for the P5-6 crossing and more of an uptick in P7 has appeared.

There is one significant change that has become increasingly apparent in recent days and which may well explain this trend for projected MJO ability to propagate across the Pacific with good amplitude, but I am contractually obliged to leave for others on here to figure out (sorry!).

oh come on! give us a clue at least! 

[karlos1983]

2 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

oh come on! give us a clue at least! 

Yes a clue would be nice... something like 1963 would suffice 

[Had Worse]

seance

ˈseɪɒns,ˈseɪɒ̃s,ˈseɪɑːns/

noun

noun: seance; plural noun: seances; noun: séance; plural noun: séances

1. a meeting at which people attempt to make contact with the dead cold, especially through the agency of a medium.

    

   telepathy

   tɪˈlɛpəθi/

   noun

   noun: telepathy

   1. the supposed communication of thoughts or ideas by means other than the known senses.

       

      I have the feeling that the models are going to start flip flopping again if there is a true Easterly in the woodshed.

      Its never been straight forward from that direction or if theres a high in the vacinity of us (North, East or South East.) 

       

[knocker]

19 minutes ago, Singularity said:

 

Interesting to compare the EMON of 19th with today's ECMF; you can see how the amplitude has adjusted considerably upward for the P5-6 crossing and more of an uptick in P7 has appeared.

There is one significant change that has become increasingly apparent in recent days and which may well explain this trend for projected MJO ability to propagate across the Pacific with good amplitude, but I am contractually obliged to leave for others on here to figure out (sorry!).

The strongest tropical forcing of Winter just was observed out over the Western Pacific - Maritime Continent region last week (timed with MJO passage). H/t MV

[Sneachtastorm]

5 minutes ago, knocker said:

The strongest tropical forcing of Winter just was observed out over the Western Pacific - Maritime Continent region last week (timed with MJO passage). H/t MV

What does that mean/how might it impact us? Ty

[Johnp]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

The strongest tropical forcing of Winter just was observed out over the Western Pacific - Maritime Continent region last week (timed with MJO passage). H/t MV

So is it going to snow south  of the M4? 

 

[knocker]

6 minutes ago, Sneachtastorm said:

What does that mean/how might it impact us? Ty

I've no idea except I'm assuming it will facilitate the MJO moving into phase 7 or 8 which is thought to ease our way into a colder regime, but that is certainly not a given.

Edited January 22, 2018 by knocker

[mulzy]

FWIW, the 12z GFS is a UK High borefest from day 8 to 16.  It nearly gets there in deep FI though...

[Banbury]

1 minute ago, mulzy said:

FWIW, the 12z GFS is a UK High borefest from day 8 to 16.  It nearly gets there in deep FI though...

Means nothing until you see the GEFS

[mulzy]

Just now, Banbury said:

Means nothing until you see the GEFS

Indeed - should have put in the "just for fun" caveat.

[mountain shadow]

8 minutes ago, knocker said:

I've no idea except I'm assuming it will facilitate the MJO moving into phase 7 or 8 which is thought to ease our way into a colder regime, but that is certainly not a given.

Again, to reiterate.  Even if we get a high amplitude wave in 7/8 it doesn't mean a Scandi High or Greenland High.

I'm fairly sure that during the last major El Nino that we had a favourable MJO but the El Nino stopped any chance if a favourable block.

[Chesil View]

Just now, Banbury said:

Means nothing until you see the GEFS

It's always worth waiting for the ensembles as they are part of the overall run as well and can often give a good steer on possible changes.

[Nick F]

I know there has been a lot of informative posts made that seem to counter the idea of the MJO gaining decent amplitude due to the GWO orbit and low GLAAM, indeed this was the argument for the last wave through the colder phases back in December which failed to bring HLB and may again be the argument for the MJO not bringing HLB when it orbits into the 'colder phases' perhaps in Feb. However there does seem to be increasing confidence in forecasting circles, not just from the much maligned Joe B, that the model forecasts of MJO wave moving at decent amplitude into the western Pacific (7/8/1) have gravitas. 

Referring to this source below, worth bearing in mind that MJO is normally quite active in weak La Ninas or neutral ENSO:

http://la.climatologie.free.fr/MJO/MJO-english.htm#1

Quote

Because El Niño has a SST warmer than normal in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific and colder than normal in the West. Then reverses to La Niña. During warm El Niño conditions, the anomalies of convection associated with the oscillation seem to penetrate further into the central Pacific. While during La Niña, the MJO is more concentrated to the West with greater activity on the Indian ocean and the Western Pacific. Overall, the MJO tends to be low or absent during the El Niño episodes, while the activity of the MJO is often important during the years with La Niña events.

Back to the models, certainly the GFS / GEFS today seems to be perhaps picking up on the MJO wave amplifying the flow, allowing the high close to the S and SW of the  UK to eventually build north in FI, certainly could be some interesting evolutions over coming runs as the models 'smell' potential upper flow pattern changes as we enter Feb.

Edited January 22, 2018 by Nick F

[Ali1977]

Well the GEFS keep the interest going, the high is further North on the mean than on the Op, several ENS already have the UK in Northelies or Easterlies even by day 9

There will be some serious eye candy in FI on the 12z suite that's for sure - trends and all!!!

Edit - spoke too early, the HP gets flattened. ?

Edited January 22, 2018 by Ali1977

[chionomaniac]

There is the likelihood that we end up with a halfway house between what the MJO is showing (and the subsequent favourable Atlantic based HLB that is oft indicated), and the low Glaam state giving a flatter pattern.

Perhaps somewhere along the lines of long lived displaced Azores high that doesn't topple, rather than a true cut off HLB. Rather the pattern of the winter so far. With the strat weakening then there is always a chance that this could lead to something bigger down the line too, if the displaced vortex is weak enough to allow a wave 2 split.

[feb1991blizzard]

No snowy nirvana this time on the GEFS run, the cold air much further East on most runs.

[feb1991blizzard]

Still decent though, some stonkers and below average surface temps advertised.