Model output discussion - mid January

[Seasonality]

8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

There might be further down the line, and when there is brutal cold near by as well.

Good point, some consistency in recent runs has been shown in brutal cold into Europe. A reason to be optimistic because at least it is there to be tapped into.

[bluearmy]

Gfs fi interesting to me as it isn’t so far from the pattern we saw in first half December - Azores ridge attempting to get north, only to be flattened by the next Canadian vortex pulse.  Recent modelling had indicated to me that upstream troughing in the states could well see a broad replication of the downstream pattern. Wedges !!

[SMU]

22 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Yep nothing interesting at all this side of the 192 hour charts Steve

Unless 

There will be no Easterly this year! save your self the trouble of looking for one all the time.

So your posting up a Chart for T132 that shows a 12 hour window for the north to see some wintry ness 

Not exactly compelling evidence—

Noones looking for an ‘easterly’ every time - just commenting on the evolution which indicated something could come from the East -

You can’t categorically say nothing from the east this year as you will look as stupid as the same people like IB who said the same thing in 2009/2010/2013 & so on- so the option needs to be on the table -

S

[Daniel*]

I like GFS trouble is good stuff is beyond day 10 although not unexpected. Very snowy GFS 12z goes out on, rather apparent by now the deadlock looks to be threatened in next 10-14 days.

[Sneachtastorm]

I'm sure if was a chart at 132 showing wintry ness for the South it wouldn't be treated with such disdain lol

[ICE COLD]

Thought I would lighten up the mood in here a bit ?. If the GFS 12z in FI comes of we would be digging are selfs out ?. Obviously this is JFF and I thought I'd post these charts because FROSTY seems to of gone missing ?. 

[snowray]

Quite tasty at D7 from the ECM.

[comet]

Very disappointing to see the downgraded strat warming by the gfs and to some extent ecm. This at one time was modelled to really bolster the Russian high and Pacific ridge into the Arctic. This has now been toned down to some extent which is not good news imo although I would not be surprised with the recent poor modelling if the warming was forecasted to strengthen again in coming runs. Just my opinion of course.

[Chertseystreamer79]

It's been nice to step away for while...get some perspective on how things evolve rather than hanging on run for run. That said I think the pub run will produce eye candy again later thus sending me back here more often than I should. Ecm already at it it seems

[bluearmy]

this ecm run looks flatter with less waa upstream

[Stuie]

Well if you wanted to see a battleground scenario this doesn`t need much correction West.

[ICE COLD]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

this ecm run looks flatter with less waa upstream

Yes a lot flatter and day 9 is rubbish ?

And day 10 even worse . I did try lighting the mood earlier but the ECM has just took the P**S . So the mood in here dimmed back down ?

Edited January 24, 2018 by ICE COLD
Added

[frosty ground]

1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

So your posting up a Chart for T132 that shows a 12 hour window for the north to see some wintry ness 

Not exactly compelling evidence—

Noones looking for an ‘easterly’ every time - just commenting on the evolution which indicated something could come from the East -

You can’t categorically say nothing from the east this year as you will look as stupid as the same people like IB who said the same thing in 2009/2010/2013 & so on- so the option needs to be on the table -

S

Thats right only 12 hours.... well not quite right but hey lets go with it. 

No interest in that chart at all the tgermal gradient over the UK another low sinking south east over the UK a day or so later..... you are  right if your only looking for an easterly there is no interest  

 

You are right there can always be an easterly its just boring when every run is comparrd to something that isn't there

Edited January 24, 2018 by frosty ground

[tight isobar]

Dropping a few pointers into the mix...

Mlb looks quite defined if you put into context a mix of runs-suites of past-present data and evolvement....

The lack of cold pooling which failed us preety much all winter(thus far) is now building with vigor!...

Anyone suggesting a few pertubations/gefs or otherwise saying they are of minimal suggest needs to understand...with evolvement and block forming...along with mjo-forcing( more on that later)..is laugable for north easterly/easterly incur..are 'mistaken'!!.

Data is by way of format inclined for as humans way of recognise....and in such circumstance, small but consistant signals are perhaps more worthy..for latter prognosis than not.....

Its certainly getting very interesting as with step into feb-and i give you pertubate 12...gefs)

Which with high cell switching of late(through data)...isn' nt completely laughable...

Momentum and guide alignment is gaining solid format...and my bet is the coldest part of winter-uk- may soon be upon us....

Edited January 24, 2018 by tight isobar

[snowray]

Well I hope your right there tight, I guess more runs needed, certainly not without some potential.

No point in worrying about the SSW, bit late in the day for that I'd say would just produce a cold spring now.

[SLEETY]

Yes  still some very cold gfs ensemble runs  tight isobar ,some even approaching -15 untill they disappear I’m not giving up on this winter yet ,keep the faith.

 

[Scandinavian High.]

10 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yes a lot flatter and day 9 is rubbish ?

And day 10 even worse . I did try lighting the mood earlier but the ECM has just took the P**S . So the mood in here dimmed back down ?

Wouldn't get down beat do these charts really come of at 9-10 days out they will look completely different tomorrow and the next..

[snowray]

15 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Wouldn't get down beat do these charts really come of at 9-10 days out they will look completely different tomorrow and the next..

Yes I think that there is a lot of uncertainty right now, things could change for the better from around D7 I would think. The ECM ENS might be interesting to view later on.

Edited January 24, 2018 by snowray

[blizzard81]

Unfortunately the US and the south east mediterranean steals the cold on the ecm. Conclusion? This run will probably be near the mark as this sort of scenario nearly always proves to be correct. 

[Chesil View]

I,m suspecting that tonight's ECM will be very much at the. Mild end of the specturm.

[Pembroke Dangler]

12 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Unfortunately the US and the south east mediterranean steals the cold on the ecm. Conclusion? This run will probably be near the mark as this sort of scenario nearly always proves to be correct. 

I think it will be week 2 before the high will gain enough ground north and east to advect the cold air west but in the mean time my skiing trip looks tidy for some snow in Bulgaria later next week. I promise to bring some back the following week for us snow staved southern folk ?

[tight isobar]

25 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Unfortunately the US and the south east mediterranean steals the cold on the ecm. Conclusion? This run will probably be near the mark as this sort of scenario nearly always proves to be correct. 

I see your vision...

Although the iberian corrections of warmer flowing morphing are imo...WRONG!..

AND-the ecm has been..and continues to model AZHP- definement incorrecly,

The switch and drop due to leak of heights run through fat to erraticaly from flow-2flow....

Lets see.....(my op)

and a far more defined mlb..or bomerange swerve @top iceland.to scandi would be my other punt.....

In regards height formation-evolution.

Edit;..

Shut off points/evolutions-@similar snaps gfs 12z...thats around shut off via current modeling....as a whole.!! And vastly different/probable outcomes!

Edited January 24, 2018 by tight isobar

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended is back Atlantic looks pretty blocked best of the drier weather more likely in the south

[Daniel*]

 

[tight isobar]

C'mon mjo-plots are screaming potential..

Post snaps soon!!!