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Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please only post model discussion in this thread. 

For more general chat and banter, or moans and ramps loosely around the models, please head to the banter thread:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/86721-model-moans-ramps-and-banter/

For general weather chat including about the snow/cold chances around the country, please go to the regional threads:
https://www.netweather.tv/forum/forum/142-regional-discussions/

Thank you!

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

Looks like Season 2 of the Easterly Drama is about to hit our screens.

In the season finale of season 1  we weren’t sure whether the trigger shortwave had met a grisly end.

We were left hanging , the trailer for the new season has the trigger shortwave about to be thrown off a high rise!

I think it’s unlikely to verify given both the GFS and UKMO are less interested and the ECM continued its downward trend this morning.

Regardless of Its ensemble mean until the op starts getting its skates on then there’s only so long the ensembles will continue to suggest a decent easterly.

So we really need the ECM to stop its slide later.

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)

Upto T228 and it looks as though the cold air is still pouring out of NE Canada into that central North Atlantic spot, firing up the jet allowing it to fight off the cold air to our east for the time being.

GFSOPEU12_234_1.png

The north Atlantic cold blob strikes again on this run....

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

The Gfs 12z looks pretty mild next week, infact this coming weekend shows decent temps but next week looks quite mild, especially further south, it also looks predominantly dry for most of next week before turning more unsettled with bands of rain spreading NE later next week.:)

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFSOPEU12_222_21.png

Jet cutting through the south will keep any cold out of the way..... another run another outcome

GFSOPEU12_276_21.png

Southerly tracking Jet but the cold air is bottled up as expected.

I think this will be a very mild outlier.

And it was a -VE West based NAO.

Edited by frosty ground
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Purga Accomplished

Purga

Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
Posted
3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The Gfs 12z looks pretty mild next week, infact this coming weekend shows decent temps but next week looks quite mild, especially further south, it also looks predominantly dry for most of next week before turning more unsettled with bands of rain spreading NE later next week.:)

The GFS op shows one of the milder members of the pack this time. There will still be plenty of much colder runs in the ensembles = fear not... :D

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Purga said:

The GFS op shows one of the milder members of the pack this time. There will still be plenty of much colder runs in the ensembles = fear not... :D

Didn’t someone promise me the less cold members would drop out of the gefs later .........

where will ecm sit later ?? It often follows the IKON solution. It often follows the UKMO solution. Tonight matthew, ........

Edited by bluearmy
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Purga said:

 fear not... :D

I'm not worried, just saying what the operational is showing:)

Edited by Frosty.
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The Eagle Seasoned

The Eagle

Posted
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
  • Location: Co Dublin, Ireland
Posted

Today's top 3 most reliable models:

 

1. ICON

2. GEM

3. NAVGEM

 

The rest are duds. Especially that ECM, terrible model -  so inconsistent and all round awful.

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

I really wouldn’t worry too much with the GFS 12 hrs run.

It only needs a correction in terms of GFS bias and it could turn out with a decent battle ground scenario.

The GFS will always take too much energy ne at that range.

My mood this evening will be dictated by the ECM op! You have been warned! :D

 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted
19 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

GFS hinting at a west based -NAO

You’ll be surprised how many great historic cold spells have had a west based -NAO through them. 

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

120_mslp500.png?cb=463 12_120_mslp500.png?cb=463

Not often these two are so different at +5 days.

Rukm1201.gif

Good to see UKMO more like GEM and GFS - though that Atlantic trough could do with being less intense. 

Rukm1441.gif

The most satisfactory chart of the day so far for me when combining effectiveness for getting the easterly in by midweek with the model rep.

 

Overall impression is that the models are seriously struggling to resolve a split apart of low heights as the upper level support capitulates; lows will tend to dive down somewhere or other but just when and where seems to be a guessing game at the moment.

 

On top of this, the usual progressive bias of GFS seems to be causing it to drag an unreasonable amount of cold air out of Canada as it is 'released' by the weakening polar vortex over there.

Such is my optimistic take on it's truly tragic 12z and almost-tragic 06z efforts :unsure2::laugh:

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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I really wouldn’t worry too much with the GFS 12 hrs run.

It only needs a correction in terms of GFS bias and it could turn out with a decent battle ground scenario.

The GFS will always take too much energy ne at that range.

My mood this evening will be dictated by the ECM op! You have been warned! :D

 

Yup, small changes can still salvage things. A cursory glance at the ensemble members shows the milder runs outnumbering the much colder runs however. Cold air is close by on many of them but its struggling to make the push towards our shores.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup, small changes can still salvage things. A cursory glance at the ensemble members shows the milder runs outnumbering the colder runs however. Cold air is close by on many of them but its struggling to make the push towards our shores.

The ensembles are only out to 108 so far.. If the milder members do end up outnumbering the colder runs then that'd be one hell of an ensemble flip.

Edited by Daniel Smith
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Derecho Maestro

Derecho

Posted
  • Location: Hull
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Hull
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

The ensembles are only out to 108 so far..

Really? They are up to T276 on WZ as far as I can see. Well I'd say they are on a par with the number of -5C members

Runs with T850s above 0C at T240 in Southern England = 10
Runs with T850s below -5C at T240 in Southern England = 7

A fair few have the cold pool very close by though but remaining just a bit too far away from us.

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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Buzz Community Regular

Buzz

Posted
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
  • Location: Carmarthenshire
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

Today's top 3 most reliable models:

 

1. ICON

2. GEM

3. NAVGEM

 

The rest are duds. Especially that ECM, terrible model -  so inconsistent and all round awful.

Presumably you are saying that the rest are duds because they aren't showing what you want to see? Is that correct?

How about some analysis on WHY the others are duds (besides the obvious)? Both computer model related and in terms of the meteorology. Please discuss, this IS the model output discussion thread after all and it will be a most valuable learning exercise for people.

Edited by Buzz
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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

The vortex main-canadian mass is clearly being modeled as an' over elaboration...with its energy bias-gfs to stabilise the jet!!!

Thus taking sequence of heights formation of a miss-matched flow.

Again the gfs toys and waines...and tbh- i honestly think now' the process of dynamics are noted via models...its time for the ecm to take lead as amp/and-thermal gradiants apply...

Also the gfs ens -i feel - will still overide its op- decipher/synoptics.......

Edited by tight isobar
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

GFS/UKMO/GEM at day 6

gfs-0-144.png?12   UW144-21.GIF?14-17   gem-0-144.png?12

Large differences between the GEM and the GFS/UKMO by day 6, the GEM is possibly one of the best runs I have seen up to day 10 with bitterly cold air pushing wests next week. The UKMO is better than the GFS in regards to better cold pooling pushing west under the high. Larges amounts of uncertainty in the 4-5 day range so we could see the output turn into snowy nirvana or we could still end up losing out.

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Team Jo Accomplished

Team Jo

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
Posted

Hello, let’s not start poking each other with sticks please. Far too early for all that. Thanks.

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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Interesting that every GFS ens has the trigger shortwave except the operational !!!!

It is, I wonder how often the op is completely at odds with its suite and then verifies? Mind you, this is a UK cold spell we're talking about.

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