Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

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Mean at 228 holding strong

[Ali1977]

Cracking set of ENS again, so I imagine another warmer outlier from the Op (less cold) , the Op is still pretty good later on though. Some of those ENS are awesome ?.  I’m sure what we all want to see is for the Op to start showing an exceptional cold outcome rather than the ENS!! 

Something like this from the ECM please 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Ali1977

[Lampostwatcher]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Who knows what I was seeing then , maybe WZ was having some trouble updating data but I swear it definitely went out to T276 before it suddenly reverted to T132 again.

Maybe I'm going crazy 

yes lay down in a dark room for a week you may have M.O.D model output dementia lol 

[Banbury]

6 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

You did not see the 12z suite no one sees it before anyone else. Apart from actual forecasters may see data a tad earlier. 

He didn't and was dreaming , I have just gone through all 20 GEFS from 192 and I can see why the Mets update mentions the possibility of significant snow in Central / Eastern and Southern areas, some corkers in there 

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Cracking set of ENS again, so I imagine another warmer outlier from the Op (less cold) , the Op is still pretty good later on though. Some of those ENS are awesome ?.  I’m sure what we all want to see is for the Op to start showing an exceptional cold outcome rather than the ENS!! 

Ditto , some belters indeed , I think Id rather more cold runs in the ENS to be honest as long as the OP sits alone and has no support then carry on

[Cloud 10]

GEFS mean at 360 hrs 1045mb Greenie high.

 

 

 

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

He didn't and was dreaming , I have just gone through all 20 GEFS from 192 and I can see why the Mets update mentions the possibility of significant snow in Central / Eastern and Southern areas, some corkers in there 

Lol, yeah clearly I must have managed to view an old set of 12z's somehow because the current ones look pretty good 

[Mucka]

53 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

The easy summary tonight for cold

NAVGEM / IKON / GEM ( beast ) fast for cold with shortwave trigger

UKMO middle ground at 144 - cold in 168-192

GFs slowest evolution - cold in @216

 

UKMO doesn't have the possible closed low at 144 so better than this mornings run which looked very much like the failed ECM, a bit of concern both Euros came up with that new way to scupper any obvious route to cold this morning.

I can't disagree the GFS is slower as it never really gets there! Too much Atlantic forcing and the ridge a little too far East but at least it gets through the important stage of building the ridge in tact.

Only the lesser models are showing a potential quicker route to cold now, with GEM showing the original solution with the first ridge being enough. 

I think that chance has probably come and gone though and we are looking at the second attempt to build an Atlantic ridge and as we saw from this mornings runs that is not yet nailed down.

The favoured solution is still for a strong ridge to build 168 through 192 but it is out of reliable range as yet so no slam dunk and will be at least another 48 hours before there is any likely model consensus.

Let's hope ECM moves away from this mornings output as I don't fancy chasing a slack continental flow end of Feb.

 

[ICE COLD]

2 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

mouth watering set of ens 

some of them in there would 

cause the server to crash till Easter 

And here they are ?

[ITSY]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

And here they are ?

I think that tells us all we need to know about the op’s mean reliability, not to mention the cross and intra model volatility from day 6

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks]

1 minute ago, ITSY said:

I think that tells us all we need to know about the op’s mean reliability, not to mention the cross and intra model volatility from day 6

What the hell is going on with that precipitation spike on 27th Feb?!  Is that the op?!

[Frostbite1980]

4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And here they are ?

Some fantastic ens in there but there are a fair few modest ones to. I’m going to try and keep my feet on the ground until those more modest runs reduce.

[Frosty.]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

The majority of the GEFS 12z go for a FREEZE and there are some absolutely stunning charts!

It's no exaggeration to say there is mega wintry potential in the mid / longer range stretching into early march!

[Mucka]

What GFS ensembles show is a bit of a split appearing between Op and control along with a small cluster and the main cluster that go for cold around the 23rd/24th

The good news is that both the Op and control build the ridge at second attempt but the bad news is there is too much Atlantic forcing meaning the ridge is built a little too far East and so the cold never really gets established.

On balance I think any quick breakdown of blocking shown should be ignored for now as there are much more important phases in the semi reliable time-frame to get through.

If we can get a good ridge build 144+ then we are 90% of the way there.

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Mucka

[Purga]

The 12z GEFS do show quite a spread!

There is a 15C spread as early as day 7, then 2 clusters with a circa 50% split. The cold cluster, shows good depth of cold (a lot below -10). The milder ones include the Op + control

15 of 22 runs of the 12z GEFS go below the -10 line for the South, excl the Op.

[Met4Cast]

ECM takes the trigger shortwave South-East over Scandi, South would be better but it's still much better than the GFS which sends it NE

This is probably going to be a good run.

[Fingers]

Better heights across the pole at t120 but that vortex over Greenland looks too strong. 

[Rayth]

After today’s GEM .... ? 

[Banbury]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

No comment on the ECM - wonder why ☹️

It’s really not getting it ......usual thing , see where it is in the ENS 

[Stuie]

Well if you wanted the ECM to show a lovely greenie high then.....

[snowice]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

No comment on the ECM - wonder why ☹️

Looks better at 168 going more NE than 00z.

[weirpig]

awaiting for 192 before I call this a bust  certainly nothing like gfs 

[bobbydog]

hmm... the ECM-pire Strikes Back...

the mod thread - The Farce Awakens...

[inghams85]

I don't mind the ECM. Okay no UK high but the heights building out of Scandi on the 168..... Slower but should be better going forward and opens up Scandi heights instead of Greenland ones

[inghams85]

1 minute ago, snowice said:

Looks better at 168 going more NE than 00z.

Agreed going back to the original idea 5 days ago. I like it. When retrogression comes it should leave us with less chance of West based negative NAO