Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

When was the ICON introduced?

do the met regard this model or is a bin model,to be honest all models are good at short range but the med/long range ones are good for trends

we are still in a status quo but i highly regard the cpc anomoly charts as john holmes has put foreward so many times,but no model is infalable.

It's the updated GME model, so basically a bin model but because it comes out earlier than the other models it's become quite popular, that and the fact it's consistently shown cold setups.

I would be interested in seeing some statistics for it though, I wonder how it compares to the big three. Would be nice to introduce a fourth and make it "the big 4". It does surprise me there aren't more models getting good verification stats.

[Daniel]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

It's the updated GME model, so basically a bin model but because it comes out earlier than the other models it's become quite popular, that and the fact it's consistently shown cold setups.

I would be interested in seeing some statistics for it though, I wonder how it compares to the big three. Would be nice to introduce a fourth and make it "the big 4". It does surprise me there aren't more models getting good verification stats.

It's done  quite well this winter.

[The Eagle]

18z so far looks an even flatter pattern than the 12z. No GEM outcome here.

[lorenzo]

Verification stats for the Icosahedral Nonhydrostatic model seem hard to come by - the page on DWD has a plot - this however harks back to 1968! https://www.dwd.de/EN/research/weatherforecasting/num_modelling/05_verification/verification_node.html;jsessionid=D01A15427F6D705E2B376F88C0F3CBD9.live21074

From the ECMWF portal - the 12z plots for 500hPa - http://apps.ecmwf.int/wmolcdnv/scores/mean/500_z DWD on a par to GFS out to 144-168, given that in chaos like now not sure how much these can be used for any meaningful guide. Still will help frame it's reference in the model thread. Note the strat plots on Berlin are ECM via DWD - not sure what inflection this has either bar data provision?

 

[tight isobar]

No we are slowly gaing..

The vortex segment needs to drop from its limpet sect-and note its layer days are over...

Sending the energy-and jet on a southwards bound destination...

Then the pacific warm..and russian one alike...can cut through the pole..

Leaving mass cold sepage, into the mid-latts....

Its shaping up...

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, The Eagle said:

18z so far looks an even flatter pattern than the 12z. No GEM outcome here.

We have lost the shortwave to the north at 96 of which scuppered height's to build to our north on the 12z,these incremental changes have huge impacts early on

 

[The Eagle]

Yeah I don't see it evolving here, I don't see it at all.

 

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

18z so far looks an even flatter pattern than the 12z. No GEM outcome here.

Looks identical at 108

Looks like a new outcome is favoured thou with any blocking not getting far enough north eatly on then pushed away east in the mid term.... mild rather than cold next week.

The ops are in the lead before day 5 and this is where the ensembles diverge 

[Met4Cast]

Oh well, onto the 00z runs I suppose. If the 18z ensembles hold ground and continue with the Easterly next week, I wont be surprised I'll just be even more confused. 

Looking forward to the EC clusters soon.

Edited February 14, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[parrotingfantasist]

The run isn't even halfway finished yet some are getting apoplectic. Give it a chance, and it is the GFS...

[Allseasons-Si]

We have lost the low in the atlantic on this run at 114,also height's building more into Scandi with trough central europe backing west,i would say this is a better run than the 12z,lets see how it progresses.

[E17boy]

Good evening all I have been reading all the ramps here all week  and seeing what the models are saying. I have to say with regret that I am slowly seeing our cold spell getting watered down. I am no exper here and I may be completely wrong but I just have that feeling that we are beginning to head down the unlucky path.

i could just write here that it's ok because some of the runs have been good and I hope I am wrong in thinking this but the dark clouds of misery for cold lovers seem to be closer today.

There was always caution that was needed in these models that were showing some great output but 10 days down the line . But our hearts want this cold so desperately we fall into the trap of thinking maybe there is hope. 

The SSW was never a guarantee that we would get the bitterly cold easterlies infact we could be heading for early spring. I think there has been so much hype about the cold that it has stuck to us as if it is definately going to happen, but I am being realistic today. We can't change the weather but it will change our moods. 

I love the fantastic posts on here keep up the good work peeps. 

Take care 

all the best ??

[frosty ground]

By 120 the low in the mid atlantic is missing. The ops are in the lead.

Expecting toys to be all over the place by morning 

[tight isobar]

In a perfect scenario...we need the split.

And fail to see a problem given current evolvement.....

 

Edited February 14, 2018 by tight isobar

[Dunstable Snow]

1 hour ago, london-snow said:

I am looking forward to our trip down to Bristol next wedensday could be a bit dicey if what we have seen verifies..

Also agree in the fact that I think we will see a sudden straight route to cold from the east around the day 6 timeframe.

Yes I would be great to be travelling back up the M4 with 3 points and hitting light persistent snow moving west at say somewhere like Reading.... I will never forget going to see Fulham play Luton on 30 December 1978 and travelling back to Folkestone which was home at the time on that evening (I was 13 at the time) . Light persistent snow all the way back home on top of 2 points for FFC ( it was 2 points for a win then - Gordon Davies scored the winner). What followed was the snowiest spell of weather I can ever remember, snowier than 1987 and 1991 but I was probably living in the sweet spot down in South East Kent.

Back to the models.... Although I remain confident that we will get an easterly, and it will appear at short notice, I do share NS and others reservations re the ops v ens. I seem to remember back in February 2009 we were in a cold and snowy spell which was scuppered by the effects of a downwelling SSW. The ensembles were resolutely cold for what seemed like an age beyond the operational's walking away from cold. We ended with a spring like second half to that month when all the indications for days one end were for a continuation of the cold. We need the ops to revert to cold and snowy asap..time is ticking  !

[damianslaw]

Not surprised to see varying output from the models at the moment from one run to the next - always a sign they are struggling; the overall theme is for a much weaker jet and with the projected secondary warming attack on the PV, a blocked outlook looks the likely outcome as we end the month and enter March. The question is whether we end up with a milder blocked set up, or something much colder. A clear pathway to substantial high lattitude blocking will be there; and I will be surprised if we don't eventually end up with this, so don't be surprised to see flips again from GFS and ECM back to the easterly cold outlook in the next few runs.

[Team Jo]

Before this descends into another Will it/Won’t jt cascade of doom, let’s just not eh?

BBC don’t approve the weather as it’s about to be delivered. It’s a broadcast of an analysis. 

Anyone getting fixated on a dead-cert  solution of what’s 6+ days out is on a fools errand, and it’s not reasonable that we hold anyone to account, bbc or otherwise for interpretations that  are a statistical minefield.

If non-easterly charts fill you with Joy, then great, but please don’t fill this thread up with goady crap or you won’t be posting in here anymore. Same goes for those people who just seem to take pleasure in the disappointment of others. If that’s your thing, this isn’t the place for you.

[Ice Day]

4 minutes ago, Banbury said:

OT I know but relevant to this debate , the Beeb much less bullish about an Easterly , favouring the HP to sink SEwards 

Indeed, not the greatest of updates compared to yesterdays.  However, they did highlight that models 'struggle with a weaker jet' (paraphrasing) and that uncertainty of eventual outcome was very high.  I suppose we could have told them that!

Anyway, onto the models and the cold is much closer to our east at 132 compared to the 12z

12z  18z 

[Allseasons-Si]

Look at the curviture of the trough in europe now,neg tilted SW.

[Met4Cast]

8 minutes ago, parrotingfantasist said:

The run isn't even halfway finished yet some are getting apoplectic. Give it a chance, and it is the GFS...

The key stage is 90-120 over Scandi with how the shortwave behaves. The ICON takes it S/SW which is the track we want, it curves underneath the high and setups an Easterly flow. The GFS/EC take it Eastwards, not allowing the undercut of cold air which then subsequently pushes the block Northwards and supports it.

Icon

18z GFS

If we want cold early doors as per GEM/ICON/NAVGEM you want that shortwave moving S/SW. If it goes E as per GFS/EC the cold is pushed back.

6 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

What on earth are you talking about. 

You’re now on my ignore list. 

I'll try not to lose any sleep. 

Edited February 14, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[frosty ground]

Heights over Greenland building.

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Indeed, not the greatest of updates compared to yesterdays.  However, they did highlight that models 'struggle with a weaker jet' (paraphrasing) and that uncertainty of eventual outcome was very high.  I suppose we could have told them that!

Anyway, onto the models and the cold is much closer to our east at 132 compared to the 12z

12z  18z 

Yes indeed also highlighted the HP could head North but it appeared they favoured the SEly position 

Meanwhile 

[ICE COLD]

Well this is different? 

Edited February 14, 2018 by ICE COLD

[Banbury]

This HP looks to be getting smaller and smaller lol

[Allseasons-Si]

It's just another vaviation of the theme,block still in situ in our local,infact this run is def better than the 12z with lower height's into europe and we have a closed hp cell,will it sink,na!!!