Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

[Methuselah]

It's great to see the building blocks slowly falling into place...but, as the other cliche goes, let's get the cold in first and the snow will surely follow...?

Edited October 24, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

P12 gets heights to Greenland but ends up with more of a west based negative NAO 

P16 similar 

P17 gets the high over / near the uk and gets the cold building into Europe as I mentioned earlier  

 

[Met4Cast]

Seems the current signal is for heights across Scandi to be temporary before low pressure blasts it away. Could be leading into quite an unsettled spell of weather across the UK largely dominated by areas of low pressure. 

ECM/GFS whilst different in terms of placements, broadly offer the same theme

[lassie23]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

It's great to see the building blocks slowly falling into place...but, as the other cliche goes, let's get the cold in first and the snow will surely follow...?

 

Some seem to think the building blocks are falling apart

[blizzard81]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Some seem to think the building blocks are falling apart

Who thinks this? 

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Who thinks this? 

daniel smith lol

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

daniel smith lol

Ah! Yes, I see the post lol. If anything, the meto extended forecast has moved towards more blocked conditions in it's latest update. This seems to tally with the gfs 12z op. 

[Tim Bland]

I wonder if the meto update is linked to the possible SSW in a couple of weeks? Sounds like they are expecting a strong Scandinavian high to develop 

[Cheshire Freeze]

If we run the averaged height anomalies through from day 8-16 we can see that there is an exchange between Scandi-E Canada in terms of where the most significant height anomalies are placed

Day 8...

Day 16...

 

The upshot of this? Well with luck we'll see heights transfer once again across to Scandi. As long as we keep anomalous heights N of the UK, we're laughing for longer.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2018 by CreweCold

[Met4Cast]

9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ah! Yes, I see the post lol. If anything, the meto extended forecast has moved towards more blocked conditions in it's latest update. This seems to tally with the gfs 12z op. 

Hmmmm...

I never said "there would be no blocking anywhere" but the models are trending towards an unsettled period of weather, as per my post. The chart above? Low pressure dominating the UK.

ECM this morning?

Low pressure dominating. UKMO?

Low pressure dominating. It'd be hard to argue against the UK seeing an unsettled period beyond the weekends initial Northerly given the consistency. 

Edited October 24, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[lassie23]

8 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Ah! Yes, I see the post lol. If anything, the meto extended forecast has moved towards more blocked conditions in it's latest update. This seems to tally with the gfs 12z op. 

That is good news regarding the meto update, thanks for letting me know.

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Hmmmm...

I never said "there would be no blocking anywhere" but the models are trending towards an unsettled period of weather, as per my post. The chart above? Low pressure dominating the UK.

ECM this morning?

Low pressure dominating. UKMO?

Low pressure dominating. It'd be hard to argue against the UK seeing an unsettled period beyond the weekends initial Northerly given the consistency. 

Quite, and let's not forget that a spell of unsettled weather for the UK is no bad thing at this point- it looks to be fairly shallow Greenland/N Atlantic troughing and it looks to be coming up against heights to our E and NE which is one thing I'm looking for at this time of year.

[blizzard81]

5 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

Hmmmm...

I never said "there would be no blocking anywhere" but the models are trending towards an unsettled period of weather, as per my post. The chart above? Low pressure dominating the UK.

ECM this morning?

Low pressure dominating. UKMO?

Low pressure dominating. It'd be hard to argue against the UK seeing an unsettled period beyond the weekends initial Northerly given the consistency. 

I dread to think what your reactions would be to the models if they were showing anything remotely resembling zonal  The charts you have posted are actually very blocked. There is no zonal train which is very good news going forward. 

Edited October 24, 2018 by blizzard81

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I dread to think what your reactions would be to the models if they were showing anything remotely resembling zonal

You're right. 

I should be looking at those unsettled looking charts and instead of saying that they're unsettled, which they are, I should be saying they're a snow fest  didn't expect the silly season to start quite so early in here if I'm honest.

So is your position that a period of unsettled weather doesn't look likely? What exactly are you disagreeing with here?

Edited October 24, 2018 by Daniel Smith

[northwestsnow]

Thats a hefty anticyclone on EC at 144 over NW Russia, it will be interesting to see if it can push back westwards in the next frames..

[blizzard81]

2 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

You're right. 

I should be looking at those unsettled looking charts and instead of saying that they're unsettled, which they are, I should be saying they're a snow fest  didn't expect the silly season to start quite so early in here if I'm honest.

So is your position that a period of unsettled weather doesn't look likely? What exactly are you disagreeing with here?

Just to clear this one up. I do not disagree with your assessment that things may become more unsettled. What I am trying to get across is that the trends (model runs, meto, cfs etc) today are clearly suggesting that this will not be a prolonged zonal mush fest that drags on. It looks to me that any unsettled weather will be very half hearted and very short lived indeed. The trends tomorrow may show something very different. They may well lean back to an unsettled extended outlook. However, as far as I'm concerned they have moved more towards blocked conditions today in the medium to extended. 

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Just to clear this one up. I do not disagree with your assessment that things may become more unsettled. What I am trying to get across is that the trends (model runs, meto, cfs etc) today are clearly suggesting that this will not be a prolonged zonal mush fest that drags on. It looks to me that any unsettled weather will be very half hearted and very short lived indeed. The trends tomorrow may show something very different. They may well lean back to an unsettled extended outlook. However, as far as I'm concerned they have moved more towards blocked conditions today in the medium to extended. 

I don't think anybody on the entire internet has suggested that a prolonged zonal mush fest that drags on was showing up on any of the models?

[blizzard81]

15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats a hefty anticyclone on EC at 144 over NW Russia, it will be interesting to see if it can push back westwards in the next frames..

A thing of beauty it is Long may it persist. I must say it has a very resilient look to it. It really does blow up in a very short space of time into an incredibly big and strong block. 

Edited October 24, 2018 by blizzard81

[Mike Poole]

Yes, the message from the 12s is for the block to set up way to the NE and to have considerable strength, that may not mean particularly cold weather for the UK now, but it should have a role in stopping the coupling of the strat and trop vortexes, and also in slowing the strat vortex, as hinted at strongly by the GEFS:

ECM NH pattern at T216:

This should have an impact down the line, well worth watching developments in the strat modelling in the next week or two.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, the message from the 12s is for the block to set up way to the NE and to have considerable strength, that may not mean particularly cold weather for the UK now, but it should have a role in stopping the coupling of the strat and trop vortexes, and also in slowing the strat vortex, as hinted at strongly by the GEFS:

ECM NH pattern at T216:

This should have an impact down the line, well worth watching developments in the strat modelling in the next week or two.

 

Hopefully we see the zonal wind forecast drop further...

The decline is being shown at 30hpa in FI GFS

Edited October 24, 2018 by CreweCold

[Allseasons-Si]

At the moment all the main models(inc latest ecm) upto 192(look at the NH views) are showing a trough/low parked to the W/SW of the uk after this northerly/easterly so yes it will become unsettled but look to the east and west of us there is developing ridges of high preasure that will in theory squeeze out what is left of our parked trough/low,we just want the height's to gain more to the north of us,also what i have noticed is that all main models are showing most of the pv over the Siberian side just like i mentioned the other day,this is a good thing and with amplified patterns like this will keep the pv on the ropes with a white towel over it's head lol

so no zonal train that i can see in the reliable

here is the NH views of the main models at 192 for ilustration purposes i mentioned above

gfs/gefs/ecm and gem,they all look quiet similar.

forgot to add that there is another tropical storm forming in the atlantic,only the gem is picking it up at the moment

a tweet from M.ventrice that i put in the tweet thread.

 

 

Edited October 24, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[Newberryone]

Disappointingly quiet in here tonight compared to just recently. Post northerly airflow, while still somewhat uncertain, does now appear to be settling on an ordinary run of the mill type changeable late autumn period as opposed to those dreamlike synoptics originally being forecast for next week. Thankfully it’s only Oct 24th so no need for despondency, just yet.  

Edited October 24, 2018 by Newberryone

[Snowyowl9]

Too early in the year to see what this chart can bring or not,cold air is there but its only October wow.

 

[Jonathan Rhodri Roberts]

Still keeping a close eye on that potential stalled rainband that showed over Ireland the other day on the GFS latest run has now moved it east, so heaviest rain Tue & Wed with 90mm close to the coast of south Pembrokeshire but rainfall totals would be much more over higher ground if it stalls across Wales like storm Callum done about a fortnight ago. This could be bad news for the half term holidays next week with a risk of some flooding again but of course it's still 6 days away, so there's plenty of time for things to change.  

[damianslaw]

24 minutes ago, Jonathan Rhodri Roberts said:

Still keeping a close eye on that potential stalled rainband that showed over Ireland the other day on the GFS latest run has now moved it east, so heaviest rain Tue & Wed with 90mm close to the coast of south Pembrokeshire but rainfall totals would be much more over higher ground if it stalls across Wales like storm Callum done about a fortnight ago. This could be bad news for the half term holidays next week with a risk of some flooding again but of course it's still 6 days away, so there's plenty of time for things to change.  

Pity half term holidays next week for some. Here it is this week, lighter late afternoons combined with what will turn out to be a mostly dry fine pleasant week.