The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Tim Bland]

That PV

[bluearmy]

the system coming into the atlantic view on meteociel days 5/6 is crucial to the evolution. slower and therefore not quite so close to the low heights (slower would allow a little ridge to from) would mean its more likely to head east and potentially undercut)

that feature is not set in stone - it hasn't even formed in the GOM yet.  would expect tomorrows runs to have a good handle on it but even then, not definitive.

 

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Well it was an OK run until this point, T192:

Think we should be pretty chuffed with the run if we are worrying at this point about T192 hey?

[bluearmy]

btw, that's a fair old dumping from the occlusion se midlands up the eastern side of the uk next Friday evening 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

the system coming into the atlantic view on meteociel days 5/6 is crucial to the evolution. slower and therefore not quite so close to the low heights (slower would allow a little ridge to from) would mean its more likely to head east and potentially undercut)

that feature is not set in stone - it hasn't even formed in the GOM yet.  would expect tomorrows runs to have a good handle on it but even then, not definitive.

 

Your input is an absolute joy Blue..

I have wanted to say that for a while.

Thankyou ..

Edited December 6, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Stuie]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

btw, that's a fair old dumping from the occlusion se midlands up the eastern side of the uk next Friday evening 

Glad you see the potential, Blue. If we are that close to a battleground now we can only live in hope for adjustments, this could be something.

[stodge]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

btw, that's a fair old dumping from the occlusion se midlands up the eastern side of the uk next Friday evening 

You or the Bearded One noted the negative tilt on the trough this morning and it's still there this evening on the 12Z at T+216. There's enough residual heights in northern Scandinavia to send the LP SE into Europe. 

Similar to the GFS OP at the same time:

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0&carte=1

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Think we should be pretty chuffed with the run if we are worrying at this point about T192 hey?

Yes, as others have said there is enough uncertainty to come back tomorrow morning, but as SM said above, this one did look doomed a frame earlier.  

FV3 delayed tonight, but out to T240 now, and goes the same way as the GEM so if the current block goes east, amplification to the west looks the way forward.

[snowray]

Well you simply couldn't make it up, JMA is even better than the ECM!

What a turnaround...

Edited December 6, 2018 by snowray

[mulzy]

The ECM is a pretty decent run.  Highs of 3-4C on day 7 (next Thursday) before a band of rain/snow crosses the country probably giving significant accumulations in some parts.

Edited December 6, 2018 by mulzy

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

34 minutes ago, Don said:

When you say going forward, what time frame?

Don’t look east for our cold longer term, I do think our continental feed will be more than this mornings runs ....but I think displacement PV/deep troughing will bring our Dec cold

 

BFTP

Edited December 6, 2018 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Defector]

Apologies if this is in the wrong section but on Points West just now Ian Ferguson  called a mild and wet December - always appreciate his forecasts.

[bluearmy]

becoming quite interested in how the nw european trough that the extended eps mean has begun to show last couple runs might manifest itself - even if we do miss out on the undercut/slider, a fairly stagnant broad upper trough with coldish uppers could prove to be some fun in December …. 

[Skullzrulerz]

ECM is at least trying to give it a try 

But it seems were in a losing battle.... Again

Edited December 6, 2018 by Skullzrulerz

[Tim Bland]

20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

btw, that's a fair old dumping from the occlusion se midlands up the eastern side of the uk next Friday evening 

Yes, but I think you mean Thurs eve?

 

[blizzard81]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

becoming quite interested in how the nw european trough that the extended eps mean has begun to show last couple runs might manifest itself - even if we do miss out on the undercut/slider, a fairly stagnant broad upper trough with coldish uppers could prove to be some fun in December …. 

Indeed. I have seen much worse charts for mid December. 

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

becoming quite interested in how the nw european trough that the extended eps mean has begun to show last couple runs might manifest itself - even if we do miss out on the undercut/slider, a fairly stagnant broad upper trough with coldish uppers could prove to be some fun in December …. 

Indeed it could Blue,  and at 8 days out next weeks battleground only needs a small correction to bring some albeit temporary snow to a much wider area.

[Don]

10 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Don’t look east for our cold longer term, I do think our continental feed will be more than this mornings runs ....but I think displacement PV/deep troughing will bring our Dec cold

 

BFTP

I think I agree with that for December.  However, perhaps better chances of easterly cold as we go through January into February?  Majority of the long range models were not seeing anything special for December.

[Methuselah]

 

39 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Cold uppers just about touch the end of the  pier  at Great Yarmouth wouldn’t take many more adjustments to put us back in the game though 

I'll let you all know, should I see a flake!

Edited December 6, 2018 by Ed Stone

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, Defector said:

Apologies if this is in the wrong section but on Points West just now Ian Ferguson  called a mild and wet December - always appreciate his forecasts.

I dont .. not when hes saying those kind of things!!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Just now, Don said:

I think I agree with that for December.  However, perhaps better chances of easterly cold as we go through January into February?  Majority of the long range models were not seeing anything special for December.

I don’t agree with special.....we have an Atantiic on southerly track or NW/SE axis....we could see some serious winter weather especiallyif deep trough sets up to our E

 

BFTP

[Don]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont .. not when hes saying those kind of things!!

I suspect the south west will probably have a mild and wet December though.

[Mike Poole]

Still well worth keeping our eye on the strat, another good run from the FV3 tonight, the signal very much still there, T384:

I think the runs I've seen today maybe brings the best estimate of the time of a potential SSW forward a bit, compared to yesterday.

Edited December 6, 2018 by Mike Poole

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Don said:

I suspect the south west will probably have a mild and wet December though.

Is he talking broadscale (UK) or regionally ..im not sure ...but good point Don.

[Don]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

I don’t agree with special.....we have an Atantiic on southerly track or NW/SE axis....we could see some serious winter weather especiallyif deep trough sets up to our E

 

BFTP

Well, I won’t complain about that!