The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)

[Seasonality]

The plot thickens, cold runs overnight for Europe including ice days from Monday to the end of the run from both the 18z and 00z for my location (and yes that does raise an eyebrow this early in the season). And I'd say nowt to moan about and plenty of opportunities for the UK if this general pattern verifies from the 00z.

Edited November 24, 2018 by Seasonality

[Dave Kightley]

UKMO is very stormy at 144h and  would need a few more frames to see if it would follow GFS otherwise not a great run at all for coldies except the next few days obviously 

Edited November 24, 2018 by Dave Kightley

[Seasonality]

16 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

UKMO is very stormy at 144h and  would need a few more frames to see if it would follow GFS otherwise not a great run at all for coldies except the next few days obviously 

Not true at all in the case of the 00z gfs. Would be plenty of interest if its FI stages verified. 

[Dave Kightley]

35 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Not true at all in the case of the 00z gfs. Would be plenty of interest if its FI stages verified. 

Yea mentioned it in a previous post! If UKMO would go on to follow it is the thing

[northwestsnow]

A bit of patience is going to be required.

Thats fine with me as Dec is still a week away.

The signal for an arctic high still there towards the end of EC this morning..

GFS showing a warming in the strat at day 8/9

which then wanes to be followed by another towards the end of the run-

Edited November 24, 2018 by northwestsnow

[MR EXTREMES]

ECM not without interest 

Azores Iceland heights merge perhaps unsettled spell not lasting to long.

Edited November 24, 2018 by MR EXTREMES

[Nick F]

Clutching at straws maybe, given it's day 9/10, but the arctic high building SW towards Scandinavia on the 00z EC is one to watch, as this can often be a precursor to a Scandi High and cold easterlies. Not really highlighted by the 00z EPS mean nor on the 00z GFS op

Alternately, there's the other path to a Scandi high shown in FI from the 00z GFS run, the Russian high extending west and joining forces with upper ridge building NE from Iberia.

 

[bluearmy]

19 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Clutching at straws maybe, given it's day 9/10, but the arctic high building SW towards Scandinavia on the 00z EC is one to watch, as this can often be a precursor to a Scandi High and cold easterlies. Not really highlighted by the 00z EPS mean nor on the 00z GFS op

Alternately, there's the other path to a Scandi high shown in FI from the 00z GFS run, the Russian high extending west and joining forces with upper ridge building NE from Iberia.

 

There is a signal on most ens for low heights in Europe by the end of week 2. These tending to be centred further south east. Eps has a broad sceuro trough though mean slp has changed from being above average on the last run to below average the new one. Clearly a time for watching rather than predicting but whichever route the pattern follows, this place likely to be busy within a week as the pretty sypnotics later week 2 come into view of the ecm day 10 and we have two gfs ops to have fun with! 

[Nick F]

00z GFS parallel gets the job done at the end of the run, this is done by the splitting of trop PV over the Atlantic with upper low breaking east into NW Russia to allow an upper ridge to build NE from Iberia to the Norwegian Sea, allowing a Scandi high to build. This often the evolution to a Scandi high, based on previous events.

------------->>>>

Edited November 24, 2018 by Nick F

[Tim Bland]

BOOM! Now we are talking ! Just need to count it down to T+0...what could possibly go wrong?

 

[Methuselah]

Long fetch easterlies, anyone? FV3 T+384:

Edited November 24, 2018 by Ed Stone

[Purga]

Well P12 would cheer up the troops!

There are some cold run clustering in the ENS even if not quite so sexy as the above.

[Met4Cast]

This mornings extended EPS not without interest - Signs of high pressure building across Scandinavia day 15 with a signal for low heights throughout much of Europe.

EC46 didn’t give much of a clear signal beyond weeks 2/3. GEFS slower in the Scandi high evolotion with the high sat over the UK at day 15 but extending North-East. I suspect EPS is a little progressive.

1-7th December turning drier, high pressure building

7-15th - High pressure extends and builds towards Scandi, temps dropping once again

15 - 25th - Cold air proper sets in???

My views today - Extended EPS too progressive re: Scandi heights, GEFS more likely to be closer in reality. 

[bluearmy]

lets choose an ideal winter chart ..... 

[blizzard81]

28 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

This mornings extended EPS not without interest - Signs of high pressure building across Scandinavia day 15 with a signal for low heights throughout much of Europe.

EC46 didn’t give much of a clear signal beyond weeks 2/3. GEFS slower in the Scandi high evolotion with the high sat over the UK at day 15 but extending North-East. I suspect EPS is a little progressive.

1-7th December turning drier, high pressure building

7-15th - High pressure extends and builds towards Scandi, temps dropping once again

15 - 25th - Cold air proper sets in???

My views today - Extended EPS too progressive re: Scandi heights, GEFS more likely to be closer in reality. 

The high settling over the UK are my thoughts too. That would be nice as we approach mid December. Like you say - thereafter! Who knows? 

[Methuselah]

The signal for a Scandi High is still there, but it's still at T+384. I wonder what the para will think:

 

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

The signal for a Scandi High is still there, but it's still at T+384. I wonder what the para will think:

 

Doesn’t surprise me - It’s picking up a signal but I think the actual Scandi height rises are beyond the models reach, give it a week and it’ll start showing something far more interesting 

[The4Seasons]

I get the feeling that the signs on the models are now starting to reflect a hint much colder weather for December - probably starting around the 4-7th region. Much more positive on the long runs. I think we could see some big developments in the next few days. Heights certainly showing signs of building towards Scandinavia and note how quick the lows are collapsing as they head towards the newly developing block area. It is only a matter of time before we feel the winter party 

[shaky]

30 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

lets choose an ideal winter chart ..... 

And yet still with a perfect chart like that above we still end up with pretty much nothing!!i still cant believe the atlantic didnt undercut and cold follow in from the north east!!just our luck!

[Man With Beard]

35 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

lets choose an ideal winter chart ..... 

Shame! Excellent synoptics, but cold not in situ to the east!

Anyway - after a non-cold period coming up, opportunities for cold once again towards 6th-9th December still showing on clusters this morning - cluster 3 with strong heights to the north. Other two clusters mixed though. Could come to nothing.

Edited November 24, 2018 by Man With Beard

[feb1991blizzard]

31 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

lets choose an ideal winter chart ..... 

I see what you've done there - i wonder if anyone else has?   

[bluearmy]

30 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I see what you've done there - i wonder if anyone else has?   

Well at least three of you did ....

@Man With Beard - I found the clusters a bIt meh after the extended mean output. Suspect not being able to see much to our east doesn’t help ..... 

new para is flatter and fires the upper toughing more to our east than northeast around day 8. This could become the transition as we move the trough through to our east - a new jet pattern aligned nw/se with the Azores displaced north whilst heights build somewhat east of Svalbard ???

[Tim Bland]

Snow for the hills with this scenario. A degree or so colder and it would be interesting ....

[Mucka]

So as the blocking pattern that so nearly bought us our first Winter cold relents (It has been chilly) we head into a more typical spell of late autumn, early winter weather.

This does not look like being a long zonal spell though and the MetO forecasts have long held that blocking would soon return in December, something I suggested way back in this thread along with the chance of a cold spell toward end of November which proved to be a decent forecast even if it didn't ultimately produce.

Currently it looks as though blocking is set to begin tor establish once more in around 10-14 days which would mean the first real potential for deep cold again will be second week of December, probably toward mid month give or take.

Hopefully it will be a stronger and more consistent signal for high latitude blocking than this current spell and things can develop quickly once  any blocking pattern has been nailed down.

First things first though and let's look to see the models consistently produce some form of blocking in the 10 day range in the coming few days.

Fingers crossed we will see our first snow fall to ow levels of England before mid month.

[johnholmes]

11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well at least three of you did ....

@Man With Beard - I found the clusters a bIt meh after the extended mean output. Suspect not being able to see much to our east doesn’t help ..... 

new para is flatter and fires the upper toughing more to our east than northeast around day 8. This could become the transition as we move the trough through to our east - a new jet pattern aligned nw/se with the Azores displaced north whilst heights build somewhat east of Svalbard ???

Just a personal view but this is the more likely way to cold rather than looking east in my view. Not saying it will happen but the chances of deep cold, are more likely early in the season from a northerly outbreak initially.