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Model discussion - March drawing to a close

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
10 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

1981-2010 isn't the last decade

This is the most up to date average we have. By the way, 2012 which is the lowest on record, is very much in the current decade.

I am still waiting for your source by the way which proves that the extent hasn't changed in the last decade? If you don't have it i am sure Donald Trump will have it.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, karyo said:

This is the most up to date average we have. By the way, 2012 which is the lowest on record, is very much in the current decade.

I am still waiting for your source by the way which proves that the extent hasn't changed in the last decade? If you don't have it i am sure Donald Trump will have it.

I agree karyo but isn't there a thread better suited for it than model discussion?

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karyo Maestro

karyo

Posted
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
  • Location: Brighton (currently)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I agree karyo but isn't there a thread better suited for it than model discussion?

There is indeed a relevant thread for in depth discussion on Arctic ice and temperatures but reference to it can be made here as it is relevant to any northerlies that come to us.

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Ukmo 12h has no interest in anything wintry as such in terms of a Northerly next tues / wed...indeed, this sunday is the coldest day of the run, especially further north.

UW96-7.gif

UW144-7.gif

UW144-21.gif

Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Well what a joke, compared to what the Gfs was showing yesterday..another garden path to nowhere.. although it turns colder later next week..yeah right, inside a not so super computer!

12_144_mslp500.png

12_168_mslp500.png

12_216_preciptype.png

12_216_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

We are looking at currently a more NWtly element to the air. Certainly cold enough for high ground snow in the North.... But just look at how - 20c uppers get moderated down by the sea track has it moves toward us. - 20 becoming - 6, I've found the answer folks.... We just need to shift the U.k a 1000 miles NW.... then it's definitely game on!!!! 

gfs-0-222.png

gfs-1-222.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Not exactly what one might call an 'exciting' run; but, you know, as one opportunity fades into the mists of time, another door can open.:gathering:

Will the HP out west usher-in a stonking spell of Spring warmth, I wonder: 

image.thumb.png.364691bae359eb03ff602471df417603.pngimage.thumb.png.072fa8dfe4f279665491d00741755fa8.png  

One can only hope?:oldgood:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

I've literally given in hope of a worthwhile cold snap now, it's to headbanging! Can we get a bit of warmth and ice cream weather now Mr GFS! 

gfs-1-312.png

gfs-0-312.png

brace-yourselves-summer-is-coming.jpg

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

We just need to shift the U.k a 1000 miles NW.... then it's definitely game on!!!! 

But then our summers would be crap.. hold on, they normally are anyway!

Anyhoo, the Northerly has been downgraded to nothing..roll on summer!..hopefully not crap.

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

But then our summers would be crap.. hold on, they normally are anyway!

Anyhoo, the Northerly has been downgraded to nothing..roll on summer!..hopefully not crap.

Here is a summer pic of Iceland Karl.... Looks OK to me...

iceland_scenery.jpg

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

A better end than what was on-offer from the 06Z:

image.thumb.png.86962258cb997efbe44e34ad421b3e96.pngimage.thumb.png.d1e0041d220a04a3702c545f124ae210.png   

No need to panic, I'm sure the Para will come to the, err, 'rescue'!

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

what happened here,looked like a decent northerly ,now nothing,sums up the whole winter,great charts in fl,but nothing actually happens in reality.Dissapointing  output again !

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

what happened here,looked like a decent northerly ,now nothing,sums up the whole winter,great charts in fl,but nothing actually happens in reality.Dissapointing  output again !

Tbh sleety I think us hardened coldie chasers were clutching at straws by thinking that by some miracle,we would endure a record breaking cold April... Winter stuck it's 2 fingers up at us throughout the winter season, and it's in know mood to give us the thumbs up for a late Arctic burst now! I'm pretty sure many moons ago the U.k was joined to Europe, and we broke free.... We need to be pushed back again now.... Perhaps then it will end up giving us more of a continental feel! If you get me drift!!!

 

Edit.... It was only ever a decent Ntly on the GFS.... we never had any cross model agreement!

Edited by Mattwolves
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

A decent finish to the Gfs 12z operational..would turn warmer and warmer thereafter

12_384_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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jam Contributor

jam

Posted
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
  • Location: Crookes Sheffield (223m. asl)
Posted
35 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Well what a joke, compared to what the Gfs was showing yesterday..another garden path to nowhere.. although it turns colder later next week..yeah right, inside a not so super computer!

12_144_mslp500.png

12_168_mslp500.png

12_216_preciptype.png

12_216_mslp850.png

Not sure why it’s a joke .. ? Data fed in , pretty pictures come out other end 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Some 'potential', if short-lived, for some parts of the East & North, next week?

image.thumb.png.5c20757285054bcbc644654867a3fa5a.pngimage.png.b6ed8657ee0440bcae8ebfe44b7b2661.png   

Edited by Ed Stone
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, jam said:

Not sure why it’s a joke .. ? Data fed in , pretty pictures come out other end 

It's just my opinion..we all have one don't we?..

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Well hello Mr GFSP, what do we have here then.... Heights forming over Greenland.... Anyone for one last chase!!!!

gfs-0-324.png

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Well hello Mr GFSP, what do we have here then.... Heights forming over Greenland.... Anyone for one last chase!!!!

gfs-0-324.png

Sadly, I think it's all headed for the North Sea...image.thumb.png.66cd909a99152949e18a9b849dab5515.png As usual!

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean, the cold shot next week is just delayed by around 3 or 4 days or so compared to the original tues / wed timeframe.

21_240_500mb.png

 

 

21_264_500mb.png

21_288_500mb.png

Edited by Frosty.
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

You could be right Pete, but it packs a punch before it clears!! Hang on a sec.... This seems like deja vu!!

gfs-1-348.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the GEFS 12z the cold shot next week is just delayed by around 3 or 4 days or so compared to the original tues / wed timeframe.

What's 3 or 4 days Karl, when you've been searching for 12 months! By the time we have finished we will have some have the regulars back posting for next winter.  

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Subtle differences between the FV3 and the GFS at 384: 

image.thumb.png.0215ac74751e82344326a9614cbf5120.pngimage.thumb.png.9d429071c8c1735df103c3e1fef5291f.png   

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Interesting ECM, some notable colder days, first in the North this weekend, and again next midweek, something a tad wintry perhaps! 

And we finish with this.

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850uk.png

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

ECM1-240.gif

F1E4CD7A-ED68-496F-9C37-A166975CEDAA.gif.b4e6f22aad13edd1c74905175d85f0e3.gif.244e76a445f1b7fe98d7c9dfe621c1c6.gif

Edited by Mattwolves
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