Model discussion - March drawing to a close

[Don]

16 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Why?

Both ECM and GEM look below average temperature wise out to day 10

GFS is on its own pretty much with the potent northerly blast.  Not saying next week will be mild, though.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's good signs towards the end of the GEFS 12z with warmer and more settled potential.

And you know what Karl, gfs may struggle to get a cold snap right in 7 days time, but I can guarantee you it will nail a warm spell in 14 days time!

[Frosty.]

17 minutes ago, Don said:

Expect a backtrack from GFS regarding next week over the next few runs.

Indeed, it's only a 1 day northerly toppler at best anyway..probably end up more of a watered down NW'ly with wintry showers on northern hills for a day or two but there's currently good support from the GEFS 12z for an arctic plunge next tues or wed..so I won't give up until the fat lady sings..but knowing coldies luck..she will be singing soon.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

JMA pick of the 12s if you ask me, for those still searching for something wintry, T192:

Will be a couple of days before this will become clearer, I think.   

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Indeed, it's only a 1 day northerly toppler at best anyway..probably end up more of a watered down NW'ly with wintry showers on northern hills for a day or two but there's currently good support from the GEFS 12z for an arctic plunge next tues or wed..so I won't give up until the fat lady sings..but knowing coldies luck..she will be singing next week.

Maybe so Karl, but she definitely clearing her throat! 

[Don]

17 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Pretty sure you said that daily regarding the met updates during winter...... But you know what Don??? They never did!!! But you proved to be correct anyway!!

Well, after a while it seemed obvious that deep cold was off the table, but like you said they continued to bang the cold drum until towards the end of February, but it never did arrive.  I think the BBC monthly forecasts proved to be more accurate than the Met Office during winter.  I'll be very cautious going into winter 2019/20, taking every little positive sign with a huge bucket of salt!

Edited March 26, 2019 by Don

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Well, after a while it seemed obvious that deep cold was off the table, but like you said they continued to bang the cold drum until towards the end of February but it never did arrive.  I think the BBC monthly forecasts proved to be more accurate than the Met Office during the winter.  I'll be very cautious going into winter 2019/20, taking every little positive sign with a huge bucket of salt!

Keep the faith Don, I will be issuing my winter forecast this September, know background signals, know NAO, know hemispheric drivers whatsoever! Tree bark, cones, frog spawn, how many pigeons migrating south.... That's ya lot.... And I bet I get it closer than the pros did this year!! Stay tuned!!!!!

[Frosty.]

 I may be wrong but tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean doesn't suggest an arctic blast next week, more of a NW'ly backing more W'ly..not mild but not the kind of cold that the gfs shows today.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[SLEETY]

Might get a below average month, cet wise if this trend of  colder weather continues. No mild weather after this week, looking at the current model output. 

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

 I may be wrong but tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean doesn't suggest an arctic blast next week, more of a NW'ly backing more W'ly..not mild but not the kind of cold that the gfs shows today.

 

That will most probably be close to the mark.  Not mild, but not overly cold for the time of year either.

[syed2878]

27 minutes ago, Don said:

Well, after a while it seemed obvious that deep cold was off the table, but like you said they continued to bang the cold drum until towards the end of February, but it never did arrive.  I think the BBC monthly forecasts proved to be more accurate than the Met Office during winter.  I'll be very cautious going into winter 2019/20, taking every little positive sign with a huge bucket of salt!

  I agree with you regarding the BBC monthly forecast anyway it wasn’t only the met banging the cold drum don’t forget the positively background signals either  those background signals this year supposed to have given us a 602 63 but it never came off  

[Don]

2 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  I agree with you regarding the BBC monthly forecast anyway it wasn’t only the met banging the cold drum don’t forget the positively background signals either  those background signals this year supposed to have given us a 602 63 but it never came off  

No, the majority of pros suggested a cold winter.  Not criticizing them, as that's what the background signals showed.  However, they were obviously over ridden by something.  Anyway, better get back on topic!

[Frosty.]

33 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Might get a below average month, cet wise if this trend of  colder weather continues. No mild weather after this week, looking at the current model output. 

First half could be a little below average, generally cool / cold zonal with rPm / Pm and maybe some Am, can't see there being much in the way of Tm for weeks 1 and 2 but the second half signal is for a warm up, at least for the south and gradually more settled again too as I understand it from the pro's...and the extended GEFS 12z also hints at that. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

First half could be a little below average, generally cool / cold zonal with rPm / Pm and maybe some Am but the second half signal is for a warm up, at least for the south as I understand it from the pro's.

Yes, Karl, I think that is likely later in the month.  

To take next week first, I'd put the chances of a snow at low levels event at about 25% early next week, should be firmed up a bit in 48hrs or so.  

Longer range, the updated Met Office contingency planners forecast has 45% in their warmest quintile for April, May, June, so a strong signal there, reflects the raw GloSea5 output earlier in the month as far as I can see.   

Things look similar to what they did last year in probabilistic terms, maybe a bit earlier, if anything.  AAM heading more positive from mid month, this could be the shift to warm following the cold spell:

This looks similar to last year to me, although I may be mis-recalling!  ENSO situation not markedly different either.  What is different is the sea surface temperatures, but only locally to the UK, where they are much warmer than last year, farther afield look similar to last year.

I think would favour development of an Atlantic trough, and UK and W Europe high if other signals are also favourable (open to question) and if that happens from about 10-15 April, I would expect things to warm up faster than last year....we'll see!

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening Folks! Battern down the Hatches as April will see a dramatic turn to Winter!!!!  As I said the other day Record cold spilling out of Greenland will greatly influence the Uk, Computer models are just getting a Wiff of this change, even by Sunday into Monday , some record lows overnight , would not be surprised to see a minus 10 over sunday into Monday morning somewhere in England or Wales...The coldest charts seen since the Winter before last,,,,!!!!!!

[SLEETY]

10 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, Karl, I think that is likely later in the month.  

To take next week first, I'd put the chances of a snow at low levels event at about 25% early next week, should be firmed up a bit in 48hrs or so.  

Longer range, the updated Met Office contingency planners forecast has 45% in their warmest quintile for April, May, June, so a strong signal there, reflects the raw GloSea5 output earlier in the month as far as I can see.   

Things look similar to what they did last year in probabilistic terms, maybe a bit earlier, if anything.  AAM heading more positive from mid month, this could be the shift to warm following the cold spell:

This looks similar to last year to me, although I may be mis-recalling!  ENSO situation not markedly different either.  What is different is the sea surface temperatures, but only locally to the UK, where they are much warmer than last year, farther afield look similar to last year.

I think would favour development of an Atlantic trough, and UK and W Europe high if other signals are also favourable (open to question) and if that happens from about 10-15 April, I would expect things to warm up faster than last year....we'll see!

Glosea was forecasting HLB throughout the winter just gone and look how that turned out. 

Id be taking anuyhing it is forecasting in the future with a large pinch of salt after its dreadful winter performance. 

Edited March 26, 2019 by SLEETY

[Mike Poole]

11 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Glosea was forecasting HLB throughout the winter just gone and look how that turned out. 

Id be taking anuyhing it is forcastingg in the future with a large pinch of salt after its dreadful winter performance. 

Yes GloSea5 was useless this winter, and equally so in 2016/17, but it is a probabilistic forecast, and the higher probability forecast came off last summer, and I think there's a good chance of that this summer too.   And for the reasons not related at all to GloSea5 expressed in my earlier post, AAM, ENSO and SSTs.  

Edited March 26, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

April will see a dramatic turn to Winter!!!!  

There is currently far from cross model support for a dramatic return to winter, some output today suggests a 1 day Northerly toppler but other output shows standard early april weather, a bit cool but nothing special.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There is currently far from cross model support for a dramatic return to winter, some output today suggests a 1 day Northerly toppler but other output shows standard early april weather, a bit cool but nothing special.

Yes Karl... Not a lot of support for it right now, its a brave call anyweather is making on a very cold April, we have had very cold air spilling out of Greenland for quite some time... Yet at this stage, what have we seen from it?? If the mid Atlantic high starts to nudge North into Greenland, then perhaps things could get interesting, but let's face it, we have been waiting for that outcome since December! 

Edited March 26, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

but let's face it, we have been waiting for that outcome since December! 

Yes it's been a very painful 4 months..and coming back to the current models, yes there has been some exciting output but a lot of mediocrity too..the Northerly being modelled is very short-lived, it could be potent but it's a 1 day affair..if it happens and it's a Big IF..cool and changeable is probably the form horse following this week's nice spell.

Edited March 26, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Frosty. said:

Yes it's been very painful 4 months..and coming back to the current models, yes there has been some exciting output but a lot of mediocrity too..the Northerly being modelled is very short-lived, it could be potent but it's a 1 day affair..if it happens and it's a Big IF..cool and changeable is probably the form horse following this week's nice spell.

I guarantee the 18z will go with the Ntly, eyes down its about to roll.....

[Mike Poole]

GFS 18z further west with the high at T114, compared with the 12z at T120:

Should improve the northerly later in the run for the UK.  Can't believe I'm commenting on individual frames of a run for a possible event in April...

[Frosty.]

I noticed the BBC weather for week ahead mirrors the Ecm 12z operational (anyone else notice that?)..i.e.. No Northerly but a brief cool  showery NW'ly followed by a cool Easterly and some showers, a touch wintry on high ground.

[SMU]

GFS firing up a better Northerly at 150-

[Mike Poole]

Much better angle of attack for the cold air GFS 18z T156:

Interesting run!