Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - What does April have in store?

BlueHedgehog074
 Share

Recommended Posts

MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

Gfs warming us up beyond day 7, I still wouldn't want to call this month though, because there still seems to be a fair bit of cold pooling to our NE! Forecasting nightmare all of this. 

gfs-1-210.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Here's a few charts from the 6z operational later next week..vile isn't it unless you're in ireland!

Quote

:bad:

 

06_129_uk2mtmp.png

06_129_ukcloud.png

06_129_mslp850.png

06_129_ukthickness850.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted (edited)

Just look at those upper air temps over Spain beyond day 10!!could we possibly tap into those in the final 3rd of this month, or will we be directed up the garden path again!! I hope folks, you have more luck with the National today, than we have had with these weather sypnotics lately!! Anyway time to get rich, see ya for the evening runs good folk!

gfs-1-276.png

Edited by Mattwolves
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MP-R Maestro

MP-R

Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
Posted
5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Just look at those upper air temps over Spain beyond day 10!!could we possibly tap into those in the final 3rd of this month, or will we be directed up the garden path again!! I hope folks, you have more luck with the National today, than we have had with these weather sypnotics lately!! Anyway time to get rich, see ya for the evening runs good folk!

gfs-1-276.png

I reckon it’ll get so cold to the northeast and such heat will build to the south that a battle royale will begin between the two and we will manage to stay completely unremarkable lol.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Let's have a bit of warmth!

06_276_uk2mtmp.png

06_276_mslp850.png

06_276_ukthickness850.png

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Now this could go almost anywhere:image.thumb.png.24a5f801a23827699a28b3dfd5b3daee.png                                                                                                              image.thumb.png.41487f0c844ea353275b7e5eed08c811.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Ecm 00z ensemble mean is on an upward curve longer term (temperature wise)

EDM1-240.GIF

EDM0-240.GIF

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Wintry flurries possible, in the East, on Thursday? image.thumb.png.f6d6379c083753f13eddb14412ef6c64.png:oldgood:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The 6z parallel ends on a high note..indeed most of low res we are under a high!

GFSPARAEU06_372_1.png

GFSPARAEU06_372_17.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

I'm still on the fence re next weeks weather, but looking further forward I think today's FV3 6z has a plausible evolution for a warm up in the run in to Easter.  Here at T192, T240 and T300:

image.thumb.jpg.ae093a53292b8b3d4b1343d9408d4e1b.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.c8d230f19ee1aadc4b5db7b7cce7c3a7.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.d7b3a70d8d394ae75727a0937508a49d.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.f7d162b4c2c0e9550f99cc5e54d96939.jpg

Indications by now of a northerly tracking jet stream which could lead to a pleasant Easter weekend.  T360:

image.thumb.jpg.358a176f552d67dc9f389fec553ea81c.jpg

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Hints from the GEFS 6z mean that there could be more chance of high pressure / ridging from around Easter onwards and less green snot!!

GFSAVGEU06_384_1.png

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

As I said above, there are hints of better weather later in April but it's nowhere near a done deal, there is a minefield of absolute dross too.

GFSP03EU06_384_1.png

GFSP09EU06_384_1.png

GFSP12EU06_384_1.png

GFSP17EU06_384_1.png

GFSP19EU06_384_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

FV3 keeps us in a none-too-pleasant easterly until at least Tuesday week...

image.thumb.png.4df66f3d5d0aa1e422f06b093ca47d98.pngimage.thumb.png.c7bbbb9e5efba34ce3a82c6825adc8dd.png 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

FV3 keeps us in a none-too-pleasant easterly until at least Tuesday week...

image.thumb.png.4df66f3d5d0aa1e422f06b093ca47d98.pngimage.thumb.png.c7bbbb9e5efba34ce3a82c6825adc8dd.png 

That's not a bad run actually, can't expect great Easterlies at this time of the year, would obviously prefer lower uppers though.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

That's not a bad run actually, can't expect great Easterlies at this time of the year, would obviously prefer lower uppers though.

It's where it goes from there that I like, warmer with the  anticyclone centred over the uk.

GFSPARAEU06_372_1.png

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

It's where it goes from there that I like, warmer and anticyclonic.

yes, you're an inbetweener at this time of year aren't you, i like cold all the time, although i wouldn't be posting now if it wasn't for the attempted E'ly popping up from nowhere.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

yes, you're an inbetweener at this time of year aren't you, i like cold all the time, although i wouldn't be posting now if it wasn't for the attempted E'ly popping up from nowhere.

Yes I'm an inbetweener right now before I change gear to warm and hot as I like a summer to be summery etc etc..

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
14 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's where it goes from there that I like, warmer with the  anticyclone centred over the uk.

GFSPARAEU06_372_1.png

Indeed -- the end-result is just spiffing!:yahoo:

image.thumb.png.c58b898ae6c763c31690108d91e79d25.pngimage.thumb.png.75810f3ee9b98e1bfdeb273b43e249bc.png 

But the GEFS ensemble doesn't end so well: image.thumb.png.027fba78277a6dc92d0ed2c166324c0a.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Just zooming in on next week's wintry potential on the GEFS 6z....drum roll....actually there isn't any!! yes temperatures will become quite a bit lower than they are this weekend and monday but winds look generally light with variable cloud and sunny spells, some slight overnight air frosts though where skies clear which is absolutely normal for early / mid april. Not a dry week by any means, there is some rain potential at times, mainly in the east and south but plenty of dry weather too..probably driest further west / northwest which is the reverse of how things usually are..signs of a change to more unsettled and milder from next weekend, at least for the southwest and then possibly other western areas.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)

Pretty grotty and quite chilly under the cloud cover and even some interesting high and medium cloud in these parts courtesy of the front

geo.thumb.JPG.8430db03eeb9af8edd76fd4d5ab3b2ad.JPG14.thumb.gif.3fede132ab33eefe5d593c1495f21a72.gif

2019040612.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.034a9f024a67a6a6bc893852c43bffcd.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.1645700751c9d11143a83b3fb063d5f6.gif

 

Edited by knocker
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

yes, you're an inbetweener at this time of year aren't you, i like cold all the time, although i wouldn't be posting now if it wasn't for the attempted E'ly popping up from nowhere.

Got a bit worried when I first read this post.... Must have been mislead by the opening sentence! Yes some colder weather on the way next week but not exceptionally so! Looking more unsettled towards next weekend, but perhaps warmer! Where do we go from there..... Warm and settled holiday period, or cool and unsettled..... Mixed signals at present if I'm to be honest! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Got a bit worried when I first read this post.... Must have been mislead by the opening sentence!  

The Inbetweeners was a great series and movies

You're right, nothing exceptional about next week, becoming colder after a very mild start, yes but tame really, upper single digits to around ten / eleven celsius from north to south although scotland could be closer to five or six celsius give or take a degree..and some overnight slight frosts so gardeners and growers need to be aware of that.

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Big flip to warm on the ICON 12z, you can see at T120 the easterly is now struggling:

image.thumb.jpg.8aebd46cee6fd6be7ecfd50f8eaa16ae.jpg

And by the end of the run T180 it's a totally different ball game:

image.thumb.jpg.898ab6b6a3239547341f3d23de03dd08.jpg

image.thumb.jpg.419863cb435797e96e3ef20b8ab088d0.jpg

This is the evolution I'm expecting, but perhaps not as early as this!

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

the easterly is now struggling:

Yep, the virtual easterly that only exists inside a computer is now struggling.. a familiar story for coldies but in April I don't care!

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...