Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[Methuselah]

And, once again, despite there being no immediate sign of a repeat of last summer, the 00Z is nowhere near as 'awful', as 'dire' or as 'dreich' as some would have us believe:

Though the sight of -5C uppers pushing into Scotland, at the end of the FV3 (crap model!) does somewhat 'dent' one's optimism!

Can't access the ensemble graphs today, so these'll have to do.

[johnholmes]

Contrary to some of the posts over the past 24 hours I suspect June may not be as dire as GFS on one run on different days suggests.

They get a lot of stick but the Met O basic computer output is a better predictor than most of us on here are capable of.

Their current 4 month outlook is shown below, thus the whole of summer, and it has been reasonably consistent over the last 2-3 outputs.

Generally, as an average for summer, note that it is the whole summer, will be at or a bit above average temperatures and probably not far from normal rainfall. It will be 1 September before we can make a full assessment of this out put in early May.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/seasonal-to-decadal/gpc-outlooks/glob-seas-prob

 

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Contrary to some of the posts over the past 24 hours I suspect June may not be as dire as GFS on one run on different days suggests.

They get a lot of stick but the Met O basic computer output is a better predictor than most of us on here are capable of.

 

Yes, looks to me as if the SE will get very hot at some point during June, the start to me looks highly indicative of a June as a whole that will feature the Jet on a SW to NE axis but to the NW, yes Scotland and Northern Ireland wet at first but nothing extreme and rain becoming increasingly confined further and further to the NW as the month goes on although with some sporadic rain further south, perhaps some thunderstorms but still think rain will come out just below average with temps almost certainly at least 0.5 - 2c above.

[feb1991blizzard]

Mind you the ECM ens must look bad for NW England for first third of month as a lot of rain showing on BBC automated forecasts, they are not usually that sensitive and large amounts of rain don't usually show up until they get to D5-D7 and the Graphical view comes into range

[Frosty.]

Looking at the longer term Ecm 00z ensemble mean, the colour scheme does improve slightly towards the end!

[Summer Sun]

9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Mind you the ECM ens must look bad for NW England for first third of month as a lot of rain showing on BBC automated forecasts, they are not usually that sensitive and large amounts of rain don't usually show up until they get to D5-D7 and the Graphical view comes into range

ECM total rainfall upto Sunday, Wednesday and Sunday week 10-day 

[Guest]

40 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

The GFS 00z paints a very nasty start to summer all the way till mid June. Haven't had time to look at the other models, I expect they are the same. Can't help feeling we are looking at another 2007 or 2012 summer. It's going to be a grim one I feel, especially away from Southern England. 

 

They aren't. It's worth checking them (if you have time) before making such a sweeping statement for the entire summer - there are other threads for summer thoughts

Ensembles continue to broadly suggest a warm weekend followed by a mixed week thereafter, with signs by June week 2 of either a continuation of warm spells and showers or something hotter (mainly for S+E parts) - not a washout.

ECM trending this way too now that it isn't limpeting next week's low over us for days on end.

 

[Frosty.]

9 minutes ago, Why said:

ECM trending this way too now that it isn't limpeting next week's low over us for days on end.

True, looking at the mean the in-situ trough does gradually fill and in any case, sunshine and showers isn't a bad outlook..it could be a lot worse!

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Looking at models this morning I wish I hadn't. After this weekends brief flirt with something continental, the horror show unfolds next week with UK becoming a trough magnet. Definitely no sign on the horizon of any emerging pattern(s) we saw last summer.

[Frosty.]

The longer term GEFS trend continues to point towards summery!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, looks to me as if the SE will get very hot at some point during June, the start to me looks highly indicative of a June as a whole that will feature the Jet on a SW to NE axis but to the NW, yes Scotland and Northern Ireland wet at first but nothing extreme and rain becoming increasingly confined further and further to the NW as the month goes on although with some sporadic rain further south, perhaps some thunderstorms but still think rain will come out just below average with temps almost certainly at least 0.5 - 2c above.

Good to see you posting again Feb! I'm aware your not a heat lover, but it's good to see you approaching this with a level head.. Always the sign of a professional and good poster mate. I'm not going to have a go at the ones writing summer off again on the back of GFS output!! I think Jon Holmes has anwsered the doubters very well with his excellent post. But I most definitely urge caution with GFS output as always. For instance just take a look at the FV3 on the ensembles this morning.... Its gone from being literally  a +15 run to below 0c run in a matter of 24hrs...this in itself shows the model as no clue whatsoever. ECM perhaps showing signs of an improvement out to day 10,with increasingly warm and more settled conditions, especially further South and East!! It's not all bad at all. But I'm aware some posters hope it will be, namely due to the fact they hate that kind of weather... Love it or hate it folks... It will simply do what it wants to do, and not what a few GFS runs are currently showing it to do. 

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Looking at models this morning I wish I hadn't. After this weekends brief flirt with something continental, the horror show unfolds next week with UK becoming a trough magnet. Definitely no sign on the horizon of any emerging pattern(s) we saw last summer.

The N Hemisphere isn’t set up like last year so no point looking for a repeat of 2018.

A horror show is a little over-the-top IMO but I suppose if your comparison is last year’s wonderful summer then I suppose it is?

This summer is starting off  more like a typical ‘three fine days and a thunderstorm ‘ affair ?

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Good to see you posting again Feb! I'm aware your not a heat lover, but it's good to see you approaching this with a level head.. Always the sign of a professional and good poster mate. I'm not going to have a go at the ones writing summer off again on the back of GFS output!! I think Jon Holmes has anwsered the doubters very well with his excellent post. But I most definitely urge caution with GFS output as always. For instance just take a look at the FV3 on the ensembles this morning.... Its gone from being literally  a +15 run to below 0c run in a matter of 24hrs...this in itself shows the model as no clue whatsoever. ECM perhaps showing signs of an improvement out to day 10,with increasingly warm and more settled conditions, especially further South and East!! It's not all bad at all. But I'm aware some posters hope it will be, namely due to the fact they hate that kind of weather... Love it or hate it folks... It will simply do what it wants to do, and not what a few GFS runs are currently showing it to do. 

 

Thanks, yes its not good for me, i need rain and preferably with cold temps in summer but as you know in winter, i go with what i think or what the models are showing, having said what i have said though those ensembles do look like a bit of rain in the offing, but not a complete washout even if the worst verify, you are just not going to get spells of months without any rain in the UK, if thats what people are after they are likely to be disappointed, its like me in winter, i would take a 90-91, 86-87 etc (ie - 2 big dumpings) as continuous brutal cold for 2-3 months like 47 are highly unlikely.

[Methuselah]

Well, next week's weather looks okay: sunshine & showers, reasonable temps:

Lay in a course for 2012, Mr Sulu. Maximum warp!

[Methuselah]

If this came-off, next weekend could be a cracker! 

[Frosty.]

Just a quick mention about the Gem 0z, it doesn't show any inclination to settle down or warm up longer term.

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just a quick mention about the Gem 0z, it doesn't show any inclination to settle down or warm up longer term.

But the 06Z does! Three-weeks' warmth and thundery rain will do wonders for arable farmers; it might also go a fair way towards putting an end to the storm drought?

[StormChaseUK]

We are so on the edge that I think this is more models failing to calculate correctly than the "cool pool" some are worrying about.

10-14C temp different with a shift in a few miles would either be huge thunderstorms or wrong calc.   I'm optimistic and think we will see a plume within 10 days and

somewhere will see 28+ over next 10 days.

[Methuselah]

I don't pretend to know where the FV3 is headed. Apart from its ending with yet another build of heat, over Portugal and Spain:

 

[Frosty.]

I've mentioned this a few times recently and the GEFS 6z mean shows it again by the end of next week, it looks primed to draw up continental air into the uk, which the FV3 for example also shows!

Edited May 30, 2019 by Frosty.

[Man With Beard]

Tricky D10-D15 coming up!!

Heights to the NE ... this could lead to a sneaky back-door heatwave from E Europe (as we've seen on a few runs), but very little margin between this scenario and a small trough sat over the UK with nowhere to go (cluster 1). For a heatwave, a sinking trough into Europe is preferred (a la cluster 2 but perhaps with the trough even further south - this happened many times last summer). Cluster 3 looks rather out of kilt when compared with the other two clusters.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at the ensembles it doesn't look like this weekends heat in the south will be returning for a little while. Still some pleasant day's to be had if you manage to dodge the rain/showers just not the upper 20s of this weekend

[Guest]

33 minutes ago, StormChaseUK said:

We are so on the edge that I think this is more models failing to calculate correctly than the "cool pool" some are worrying about.

10-14C temp different with a shift in a few miles would either be huge thunderstorms or wrong calc.   I'm optimistic and think we will see a plume within 10 days and

somewhere will see 28+ over next 10 days.

Lol if ever there was a chart that sums up the uk weather that’s it. Makes you feels left out!

[Frosty.]

42 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Lol if ever there was a chart that sums up the uk weather that’s it. Makes you feels left out!

This one looks ok!!

[Flash bang flash bang etc]

2 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

But the 06Z does! Three-weeks' warmth and thundery rain will do wonders for arable farmers; it might also go a fair way towards putting an end to the storm drought?

I guess the argument is that just 1 storm will end the drought, but is it enough to make up for the lack of convective activity in general?

Also, I’ve noticed even the heaviest downpours are relatively brief (round our way anyway). They cause localised flooding but by the next day you’d be forgiven for thinking it never even happened!

A hot and fairly wet summer is what’s needed, ideally