Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[Frosty.]

The Gem 0z has improved a bit longer term further south compared to yesterday although that wouldn't be difficult but by day 10 things look better for southern uk, anyway, enjoy the next few days, especially if you're in the sweet spot across the s / se where temps tomorrow could locally reach 28c and sunday looks very warm and humid for the SE with a chance of thunderstorms..as for next week, cooler and fresher with sunshine and showers but still pleasantly warm in the dry and sunny spells!!!.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Frosty.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

I can't believe what I'm reading again this morning! Talk of a cool/cloudy and dry summer! Talk of its only speculative to say it will warm up beyond next weekend! But it doesn't seem speculative to say it will remain cool and unsettled! Talk of exeter being fanciful with there extended forecasts!! Well what on earth does that make us..... The public!!! And a lot of talk about how thoroughly horrible it will be up North with over 100mm of rain... I feel sorry for any guests tuning in to see this being repeated daily with not an end in sight... For me ECM shows signs of an improvement out to day 10,with increasing heights to the south, this could be a good starting point, it's possible I say... But it's the weather and anything is possible.... Nothing is set in stone, and nobody can say for sure how long a settled, or unsettled spell will continue for.. Unless your looking for brownie points to say.... I told you so if it comes off at the end of the day. You guys up North.... Hold fire.... CFS shows improvement beyond day 10 with much more in the way of settled Conditions.... Like I say its a possibility... A forecast and is not set in stone like some on here seem to think with there forecasts.. Have a good day folks, if you can.. It maybe difficult after reading some horror show posts... They have made it out to be an 18 rating... Only suitable for adult viewing!!! When in all honesty it should have been a PG!! 

Edited May 31, 2019 by Mattwolves

[Gordon Webb]

I thought they were doing PG as in pretty grim 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Awful horror show style output this morning from the models, not one promising chart in sight.  Gfs may aswell play the Friday the 13th theme music on viewing them as they're that scary.  ECM on the other hand is a joke, so a more comedy benny hill theme for that.  Today is meteorological summer eve so I expect to see better in the next few days!!

 

Edited May 31, 2019 by 38.5*C

[Guest]

16 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I can't believe what I'm reading again this morning! Talk of a cool/cloudy and dry summer! Talk of its only speculative to say it will warm up beyond next weekend! But it doesn't seem speculative to say it will remain cool and unsettled! Talk of exeter being fanciful with there extended forecasts!! Well what on earth does that make us..... The public!!! And a lot of talk about how thoroughly horrible it will be up North with over 100mm of rain... I feel sorry for any guests tuning in to see this being repeated daily with not an end in sight... For me ECM shows signs of an improvement out to day 10,with increasing heights to the south, this could be a good starting point, it's possible I say... But it's the weather and anything is possible.... Nothing is set in stone, and nobody can say for sure how long a settled, or unsettled spell will continue for.. Unless your looking for brownie points to say.... I told you so if it comes off at the end of the day. You guys up North.... Hold fire.... CFS shows improvement beyond day 10 with much more in the way of settled Conditions.... Like I say its a possibility... A forecast and is not set in stone like some on here seem to think with there forecasts.. Have a good day folks, if you can.. It maybe difficult after reading some horror show posts... They have made it out to be an 18 rating... Only suitable for adult viewing!!! When in all honesty it should have been a PG!! 

Not sure what you expect to be honest, the output from the models has now steadily deteriorated over a 4 or 5 day period from an outlook that had multiple warms days a little bit of TS activity and a generally promising start to summer to pretty much across the board unsettled, cool & cloudy conditions and one day wonder SE special heatwave with very little prospect in the liable time frame of an improvement. 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Thought this would offer more in the way of pyrotechics?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

31 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I can't believe what I'm reading again this morning! Talk of a cool/cloudy and dry summer! Talk of its only speculative to say it will warm up beyond next weekend! But it doesn't seem speculative to say it will remain cool and unsettled! Talk of exeter being fanciful with there extended forecasts!! Well what on earth does that make us..... The public!!! And a lot of talk about how thoroughly horrible it will be up North with over 100mm of rain... I feel sorry for any guests tuning in to see this being repeated daily with not an end in sight... For me ECM shows signs of an improvement out to day 10,with increasing heights to the south, this could be a good starting point, it's possible I say... But it's the weather and anything is possible.... Nothing is set in stone, and nobody can say for sure how long a settled, or unsettled spell will continue for.. Unless your looking for brownie points to say.... I told you so if it comes off at the end of the day. You guys up North.... Hold fire.... CFS shows improvement beyond day 10 with much more in the way of settled Conditions.... Like I say its a possibility... A forecast and is not set in stone like some on here seem to think with there forecasts.. Have a good day folks, if you can.. It maybe difficult after reading some horror show posts... They have made it out to be an 18 rating... Only suitable for adult viewing!!! When in all honesty it should have been a PG!! 

CFS was showing improvements for the second half of May, then it started showing improvements for start of June and now its showing improvement for 2nd half of June. So can you understand the negativity?

 

This Saturday shows a big 10 degree temp contrast between London and Scotland, which is very very poor for this time of year.

Edited May 31, 2019 by 38.5*C

[Iceaxecrampon]

29 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I can't believe what I'm reading again this morning! Talk of a cool/cloudy and dry summer! Talk of its only speculative to say it will warm up beyond next weekend! But it doesn't seem speculative to say it will remain cool and unsettled! Talk of exeter being fanciful with there extended forecasts!! Well what on earth does that make us..... The public!!! And a lot of talk about how thoroughly horrible it will be up North with over 100mm of rain... I feel sorry for any guests tuning in to see this being repeated daily with not an end in sight... For me ECM shows signs of an improvement out to day 10,with increasing heights to the south, this could be a good starting point, it's possible I say... But it's the weather and anything is possible.... Nothing is set in stone, and nobody can say for sure how long a settled, or unsettled spell will continue for.. Unless your looking for brownie points to say.... I told you so if it comes off at the end of the day. You guys up North.... Hold fire.... CFS shows improvement beyond day 10 with much more in the way of settled Conditions.... Like I say its a possibility... A forecast and is not set in stone like some on here seem to think with there forecasts.. Have a good day folks, if you can.. It maybe difficult after reading some horror show posts... They have made it out to be an 18 rating... Only suitable for adult viewing!!! When in all honesty it should have been a PG!! 

To be perfectly fair - we really did need the rain even up here in the NW.

[Methuselah]

Not a bad run, that -- unless one expects a summer like last year's every year, in which case, you'll be sorely disappointed! -- mostly light winds, reasonable temperatures and the chance of some much-needed rainfall...There is even a chance of some thundery activity clipping parts of East Anglia, next weekend...things are, as per knocker's post above, looking to retrogress. At last!

 

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z operational shows a refreshing mix of sunshine and showers next week but further ahead becomes warm with more in the way of settled sunny weather due to increasing ridging / high pressure but still a chance of thundery showers!

Edited May 31, 2019 by Frosty.

[danm]

34 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

Awful horror show style output this morning from the models, not one promising chart in sight.  Gfs may aswell play the Friday the 13th theme music on viewing them as they're that scary.  ECM on the other hand is a joke, so a more comedy benny hill theme for that.  Today is meteorological summer eve so I expect to see better in the next few days!!

 

Edit. 

Edited May 31, 2019 by danm

[danm]

15 minutes ago, 38.5*C said:

CFS was showing improvements for the second half of May, then it started showing improvements for start of June and now its showing improvement for 2nd half of June. So can you understand the negativity?

 

This Saturday shows a big 10 degree temp contrast between London and Scotland, which is very very poor for this time of year.

But it has been a reasonably good second half to May. We’ve had some beautiful warm sunny days, interspersed with a few cooler, more unsettled days. At least down here in the SE. 

A couple of weeks ago Scotland and the NW also had some great weather. 

 Yes, it looks unsettled next week but anything from next weekend onwards is up for grabs. 

[Wimbledon88]

Speaking of 'floating boats', looks like we will be needing some.  

No need to post charts this time. Output is dire for the next 10-14 days. Certainly a very dire soggy start to summer, more especially midlands northwards. 

[Methuselah]

Could be an interesting situation over next weekend. By no means certain, but thunderstorms might just clip the eastern side of the country, as they move northward? 

[Mapantz]

A lot of nonsense being posted I see?

If you're here for general chat or to moan, use the appropriate threads and not this one. Anymore and they will go missing.

Thanks.

[StormChaseUK]

23 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Not sure what you expect to be honest, the output from the models has now steadily deteriorated over a 4 or 5 day period from an outlook that had multiple warms days a little bit of TS activity and a generally promising start to summer to pretty much across the board unsettled, cool & cloudy conditions and one day wonder SE special heatwave with very little prospect in the liable time frame of an improvement. 

I think that's what people are missing, when it is 35C+ just over the channel and 11C in Wales it WILL be cool and cloudy. It's not going to be warm and lovely here,  thats how the setup is generating the hot weather over Europe because we are the power cell and low pressure to drive such conditions. 

Obviously things may improve in June and we have a great July/August  but we really are opening the shop at 4pm in the afternoon and wondering why it's not busy.  The nights start drawing in in about 3 weeks time! 

[A.J]

haven't posted in here for a long time, but my goodness there's some negative guff posted......how anyone can right off a summer (or the next couple of weeks) is either daft, naive or both.....First rule of FI Model Club, take the output post T192, put in toilet bowl and flush......verification percentages fall off the cliff post T192 so why stress?.......if it shows crappy and wet, expect the reality to be very different....I'd be more alarmed if FI was showing a heat fest as it gaurantee rain rain and yet more .....rain! 

Yup, a rather simplistic view of model watching but hey ho, hasn't let me down much

[Methuselah]

And the FV3 throws up another solution! In terms of Shannon entropy, there are a lot of differently-coloured balls in the bag!

 

[A.J]

1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

And the FV3 throws up another solution! In terms of Shannon entropy, there are a lot of differently-coloured balls in the bag!

 

and for those watching in black and white, the green ball is next to the red.....I'll fetch me coat

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean I'm seeing plenty of summery potential beyond next week and as I've said, next week is sunshine and showers with temps close to average.

Edited May 31, 2019 by Frosty.

[Iceaxecrampon]

34 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Could be an interesting situation over next weekend. By no means certain, but thunderstorms might just clip the eastern side of the country, as they move northward? 

Comparison From the archives June 1982 - stopped out all night and the morning was lively - similarities?

[Methuselah]

I've certainly seen ensembles worse than today's 06Z GEFS:

 

 

Cambridge:  Suffolk:  

The farther east one travels, the more impressive is next weekend's rain spike!

[Frosty.]

There's some really strong summery potential on the GEFS 6z post next week..honest!

Edited May 31, 2019 by Frosty.

[Paul]

23 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's some really strong summery potential on the GEFS 6z post next week..honest!

Really?

Low pressure never far away on a majority of the members to start, then later 50/50 ish with high pressure being nearby right through to the end. 

Sunday 9th

Tuesday 11th

Thursday 13th

Sat 15th

Sun 16th

So yeah, I suppose if you wanted to go cherry-picking certain members, you could find a lot of summery potential. But ultimately the ensembles are more about the broader picture and seeing the most likely outcomes, and those are more likely to be unsettled the week after next, with maybe an increasing chance of something a bit more settled towards mid-month. But even then, based on this run at least, that's more of less a toss of a coin. 

[Frosty.]

37 minutes ago, Paul said:

Really?

Low pressure never far away on a majority of the members to start, then later 50/50 ish with high pressure being nearby right through to the end. 

Sunday 9th

Tuesday 11th

Thursday 13th

Sat 15th

Sun 16th

So yeah, I suppose if you wanted to go cherry-picking certain members, you could find a lot of summery potential. But ultimately the ensembles are more about the broader picture and seeing the most likely outcomes, and those are more likely to be unsettled the week after next, with maybe an increasing chance of something a bit more settled towards mid-month. But even then, based on this run at least, that's more of less a toss of a coin. 

To me the 6z mean improves over time and there is some summery potential..if it was dross I would say so but I've posted the mean and leave others to decide.

 

 

 

Edited May 31, 2019 by Paul
Took out the personal stuff.