Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, 38.5*C said:

XP was by far the best OS Microsoft ever had. They killed it, just like GFS has killed the first half of June. .

Meanwhile rainfall totals next Saturday are just 1mm for the extreme SE,, 70 to 80mm for Scotland.. .

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=18&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Yes guys I feel for those up North, the SE seems to be escaping which is usually the case.

Edited June 1, 2019 by Mapantz

[danm]

No doubt we’re heading for a more unsettled week ahead. Hopefully something more settled and summery will re-appear in the 7-10 day time frame. 

For now we have glorious, very warm sunny weather this weekend in the SE. It was already 23c at 11.20am with clear blue skies. 

[Methuselah]

Now, this is what I call a 'plume': 19C uppers hitting the South Coast!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, danm said:

No doubt we’re heading for a more unsettled week ahead. Hopefully something more settled and summery will re-appear in the 7-10 day time frame. 

For now we have glorious, very warm sunny weather this weekend in the SE. It was already 23c at 11.20am with clear blue skies. 

Yes danm, its quite pleasent today here as well. Very showery next week, but as is always the case with this set up some parts seeing shower after shower and high totals, with other parts hardly seeing any... And Yeh hopeful of an improvement by the 2nd week of the month... Wether that becomes a decent settled spell or just several days, and rinse and repeat is another matter. 

[Methuselah]

Signs of a mid-month over all improvement? Or, is the FV3 merely playing silly-buggers again? I'm saying nothing!

 

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, the week ahead is unsettled and cooler due to an upper trough in control but then the trough influence thins out and shifts away to the north and there are signs we could be seeing something at least a bit more settled and warmer as we head towards mid month. 

[Guest]

48 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Now, this is what I call a 'plume': 19C uppers hitting the South Coast!

Massive outlier, although not as outlier-ry (I just made that up) as member P10 which brings 23c uppers over the south coast overall the GFS were the most positive they been in the past 2-3days beyond t192hrs, hopefully this trend can continue.

[Frosty.]

Looking further ahead, the GEFS 6z shows mixed signals but even so, there is increasing support for something more summery to return during the mid month period, perhaps a bit sooner..cautious optimism bearing in mind it's well outside the reliable timeframe.

Edited June 1, 2019 by Frosty.

[Methuselah]

The 06Z ensembles are really rather pretty; the visual effects of scatter can be quite fetching, don't you think? Shame about the weather, though!

  

[Mike Poole]

Been a fair few posters convinced this summer is going to rival 2012 and 2007 for it's naffness, but I cannot see any evidence for this at all.  It's the  first day of summer so a good time to make a comparison, here's NH Z500 charts for today, and 1 Jun 2007, 2012, and last year:

And while the situation this year doesn't look like 2007 or 2012 at all, it doesn't much resemble last year either - but the heat wave had been underway in many areas prior to June last year.  In fact this year's plot seems to have a lack of signals for anything significant.  

If we look at sea surface temperatures currently, and 2012 and last year (2007 charts not available):

If you look at the Atlantic, where the jet stream might come from, there is much more similarity with last year than 2012, low temperatures south of Greenland.  

I still think that the same drivers as last year could come to bear on this summer to an extent, although I can't see it being as dry as last year, but the fallout from the final warming in the stratosphere, which has been significant still needs to dissipate out first. 

[knocker]

A fair bit of cloud around on the 1250 UTC sat image

And down here the morning started bright and sunny but through the and early afternoon multi layered Ac and quite thick Ci progressively  invaded the sky. Reflected in the midday sounding

[chapmanslade]

Heat is never far away over the near continent this week. I'm in France and a few days ago it was going to be very similar to the UK but now looks largely hot if not entirely settled. A few hundred miles makes a big difference, as can a small change in wind direction. Pretty much standard early summer weather really, nothing extreme either way.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

4 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

Now, this is what I call a 'plume': 19C uppers hitting the South Coast!

That could be interesting!

[J10]

Personally I find rotating the charts by 90 degrees gives a better UK perspective.

As others have said slowly turning a little bit more settled or even less unsettled over the longer time frame.

Edited June 1, 2019 by J10

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

The 06Z ensembles are really rather pretty; the visual effects of scatter can be quite fetching, don't you think? Shame about the weather, though!

  

FI on the 9th, then!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

8 minutes ago, J10 said:

Personally I find rotating the charts by 90 degrees gives a better UK perspective.

As others have said slowly turning a little bit more settled or even less unsettled over the longer time frame.

Actually j10 you must be the first person to actually show them the right way up. I'm usually looking at them upside down and wondering where on earth the UK is. That's much better.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Lovely icon at day 7.....

[Mike Poole]

ICON 12z at T180, comedy dartboard low over the UK!  

But the bigger picture here is that once that has gone there is an opportunity for an Azores ridge to take over, this is what I will be looking for on the 12s to firm up.

Edit, just seen Matt's post above, puts it so much better than me!

Edited June 1, 2019 by Mike Poole

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Cheers Mike... Yes that low pressure seems a bit far out. And like you say the plan is for some kind of heights rise, once its out the way. Its a shame the icon only runs out to 180hrs.

[Methuselah]

A blue dragon might help? 

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, chapmanslade said:

Heat is never far away over the near continent this week. I'm in France and a few days ago it was going to be very similar to the UK but now looks largely hot if not entirely settled. A few hundred miles makes a big difference, as can a small change in wind direction. Pretty much standard early summer weather really, nothing extreme either way.

Where in France? The south, maybe. Looks very similar to the UK in the northern half of France, with maximum temperatures in Paris between 18-21C. 

[Sweatyman]

59 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Lovely icon at day 7.....

taking the p@#$ icon

[Mike Poole]

Liking the GEM take on that low, here T180, 

Rolling on to this at T240:

There's a lot of water to flow under the bridge yet with this one, and the GEM does have support from the background signals!

[Djdazzle]

 A few people looking at the northern hemisphere pattern and making comparisons to previous summers. It’s a guide, but nothing more. I’m sure I saw a post on here or somewhere else that mentioned that the summer of 76 went against what would have been expected, given the broadscale patterns.

Still seeing hints of an improvement after this week.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

GFS shows azores ridging next Sunday all FI but a positive anyway sorry can't post chart.