Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[northwestsnow]

Just now, StormChaseUK said:

18z has just terminated Summer.

I was hoping I was wrong earlier today and I still hope summer will return in July/August but at this rate.. strewth 

Haha, no, it only goes out until mid month so hardly terminated summer

The ens, FWIW (being GFS/GEFS) Show a decent cluster promoting i am assuming a continental sourced air for the South east longer term, of course it would be foolhardy to assume this is the way forward but highlights the potential for the trough to lift out and some warmer air to make inroads..

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, StormChaseUK said:

18z has just terminated Summer.

I was hoping I was wrong earlier today and I still hope summer will return in July/August but at this rate.. strewth 

I refer to NWS post above... Don't be to disheartened by a dodgy GFS run, especially the 18z which has less data input than the 0z and 12z runs. 1st of june today, I'm sure we can cope with 7-10 day's of unsettled conditions... Bigger heat is more likely to occur later in the month and July. They say having a freezing cold December can spell the end of the rest of winter.... 2010 a perfect example. So let's hope a poor start to June will serve as a catalyst for much better weather a bit further down the line

[BlueHedgehog074]

Golly! Can’t believe it’s June already.

A fresh new month, and perhaps some signs for an improvement from the models to see some warmer and perhaps less disturbed weather as we head deeper into the month. Probably worth saying that while next week looks unsettled, especially the further North-West you go, does looks like it could be quite bright and showery at times. Particularly with the 500mb heights being fairly low at times.

@StormChaseUK I reckon it’s the GFS 18Z run that needs to be terminated!

Edited May 31, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine
Spelling mistake(s)

[Don]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

I refer to NWS post above... Don't be to disheartened by a dodgy GFS run, especially the 18z which has less data input than the 0z and 12z runs. 1st of june today, I'm sure we can cope with 7-10 day's of unsettled conditions... Bigger heat is more likely to occur later in the month and July. They say having a freezing cold December can spell the end of the rest of winter.... 2010 a perfect example. So let's hope a poor start to June will serve as a catalyst for much better weather a bit further down the line

I wouldn't worry about the current output at all.  Last year was exceptional, so a repeat this year was always going to be unlikely.  Talking about December, just six months until the silly season starts.........

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 minute ago, Don said:

I wouldn't worry about the current output at all.  Last year was exceptional, so a repeat this year was always going to be unlikely.  Talking about December, just six months until the silly season starts.........

Rrr, Don good to see you posting again... Yes a repeat of last year was statistically very unlikely, but that's not to say we still won't end up with a very decent one. Yes silly season will soon be upon us... And contary to what some may believe, that's where my real love lies... Chasing the cold snap and snow. I'm very much at home with low 20s in the summer Tbh, let's face it, you till tan the same anyway this summer could well end up mixed, but I would say we will witness many fine and settled spells along the way. Something for everyone I hope at the end of the day.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

7 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Golly! Can’t believe it’s June already.

A fresh new month, and perhaps some signs for an improvement from the models to see some warmer and perhaps less disturbed weather as we head deeper into the month. Probably worth saying that while next week looks unsettled, especially the further North-West you go, does looks like it could be quite bright and showery at times. Particularly with the 500mb heights being fairly low at times.

@StormChaseUK I reckon it’s the GFS 18Z run that needs to be terminated!

Yes DRL, 18z was a nightmare, yet the FV3 became very nice during that run. Tbh I don't think many would bother with GFS if ECM and UKMO went out to 14 days and the UKMO gave a bit more data for the public. 

[BlueHedgehog074]

2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yes DRL, 18z was a nightmare, yet the FV3 became very nice during that run. Tbh I don't think many would bother with GFS if ECM and UKMO went out to 14 days and the UKMO gave a bit more data for the public. 

Yeah, that would be cool. Sometimes, both the ECMWF and UKMO could be showing something that really makes your mouth drool at the end of their runs. Such as the development of a mega cold Easterly, and you can have that feeling inside of you that just makes you wish, “Arrr if only I could see that 268 hour chart from the ECMWF ”

[knocker]

Outlook - after a whole gamut of weather this weekend the upper trough takes up residence resulting in a few days of unsettled weather with temps a tad below average.

The NH 500mb profile and the North Atlantic surface analysis for midnight and the 0300 WV image

Currently the complex area of low pressure is still to the west so the only slight concern today is the stalled cold front which is moving back as a warm front and this will bring cloud and perhaps some intermittent slight rain to N. Wales, N. Ireland and the north of England. South of this sunny and warm whilst Scotland will be cooler with a few showers

Tonight the low to the west associated with the warm front is starting to take closer order and from around midnight heavier rain will start tracking northeast across N. Ireland, NW England and Scotland.

By dawn tomorrow rain from the cold front, preceded by a trough, will already be effecting western regions and this will track steadily east through the day. Thus there is a very marked temp contrast with eastern, particularly the south east, regions staying quite hot until high cloud starts arriving from the west. There remains the possibility of storms popping up in the vicinity of the front By 1800 western regions will be in clearer weather with the odd shower

Over Sunday night and through Monday the upper trough moves NE over the UK with the surface low tracking north of Scotland and the occlusion wrapped around it will continue to bring heavy showery rain to Scotland Elsewhere should be quite sunny but a trough could bring frequent showers in the south A cooler day but still not bad in the east But the subtropical high is amplifying in mid Atlantic which forces the upper trough south and in it's south west quadrant another low is developing.

This continues to develop and tracks north east to be over Wales by midday Tuesday and the associated front will bring rain to much of England and Wales with still the odd shower in Scotland

On Wednesday the upper trough is ensconced over the UK in a sharply amplifying Atlantic and the little surface feature is now in the North sea leaving the country in a sunshine and showers scenario which could well coalesce at times with the odd trough embedded in the circulation.

 

Edited June 1, 2019 by knocker

[knocker]

A summation of the following five days with the gfs,

Quite a bit of fluidity but most of it is 'under' renewed blocking to the north so consequently the trough in the eastern Atlantic does not shift very far. Ergo continuing to be unsettled with temps a tad below average

[Sky Full]

How the Jetstream is expected to shape up over the next seven days according to the:

GFS.                                                              GEM

    

Both show a very simIlar pattern.   Sticking doggedly to the south of the U.K., trying to deny that it's June already, the Jetstream buckles towards the end of the week to form the deep trough which will bring unsettled weather to most of us.

[Guest]

Again it’s really as you were in the medium term this morning. Pretty much across the board model consensus that summer is unlikely be installed until at least the 10th. The remnants of the upper trough never really escape the UK leaving us cool, probably pretty cloudy and wet at times. The warm up towards the end of the GFS is clearly in the upper tercile of the ensemble pack with the mean only returning to average around the 10-12th. I love summer, it’s the only season as far as I’m concerned but given how some of these patterns can become entrenched it’s understandable why there is negativity in postings and while last summer was a massive outlier the current setup didn’t occur once from May through August really so to get it slammed into our faces for the first half of the first month of summer kinda sucks....

[Djdazzle]

7 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Again it’s really as you were in the medium term this morning. Pretty much across the board model consensus that summer is unlikely be installed until at least the 10th. The remnants of the upper trough never really escape the UK leaving us cool, probably pretty cloudy and wet at times. The warm up towards the end of the GFS is clearly in the upper tercile of the ensemble pack with the mean only returning to average around the 10-12th. I love summer, it’s the only season as far as I’m concerned but given how some of these patterns can become entrenched it’s understandable why there is negativity in postings and while last summer was a massive outlier the current setup didn’t occur once from May through August really so to get it slammed into our faces for the first half of the first month of summer kinda sucks....

Much rather have it in the first few days of June and get it out of the way. The signals (ok, we know that they are not infallible) don’t support this becoming an entrenched pattern. I’m being optimistic that we will have our first properly good August since 2003.

[ICE COLD]

-6 850’s into Scotland in the middle of June . The ECM is unsettled all the way to day 10 . 

[Methuselah]

00Z nowt to write home about. But Day 16 is okay!

 

FV3 is even worse -- even Day 16 is crap!

 

Ensembles hint at an improvement late-on: 

All water off a duck's back: 

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Alderc said:

model consensus that summer is unlikely be installed until at least the 10th. 

It could be because people are trying to run Summer on Windows 10!

The latest NOAA 6 to 10 day 500mb mean chart illustrating the unsettled period quite well still showing some upper troughing close by over the U.K.

Probably again, still with the best of the least unsettled conditions towards the South-East of the U.K, although a look at the models, even that area could see some showers and/or longer spells of damp weather at times. Perhaps nothing too disturbed though. 

The 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart, though, continues to show signs of a weakening of the troughing just to the West of the U.K, with higher than average upper heights along with ridging close by to our East probably becoming more influential. So maybe certainly a possibility for the weather to warm up and settle down a bit the further into June we go?

Edited June 1, 2019 by DiagonalRedLine
Slight changes

[StormChaseUK]

Summer install fail 2019 not compatible please upgrade to OS version 2020. September and October not compatible

Edited June 1, 2019 by StormChaseUK

[BlueHedgehog074]

Let’s hope it doesn’t come to that, lol! While it ain’t the models that drive the weather, got faith they will install Summer successfully this year. Still hopefully towards mid-June. Some signs from models for that being a possibility. No corrupted installations please! 

[Frosty.]

Following next week's cool unsettled upper trough (s) there are hints of summery weather returning in the run up to mid June according to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean, or at least something a bit more settled and warmer.

Edited June 1, 2019 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Looking at ECM the next 10 day's is certainly making up for the prolonged dry period we've had

[Frosty.]

The Gem 0z which is mostly an unsettled run does have a better ending with high pressure building in.

[Methuselah]

Captain's Log: supplemental -- stardate T+99: At least the main trough isn't over the North Sea?

 

It's a heatwave, Jim. But not as we know it!

 

[knocker]

The EPS mean anomalies this morning are still indicating the pattern change to something more settled and warmer without going overboard.

In the 5-10 period the UK trough is slipping south whilst upstream, which is quite amplified, there is a strong upper flow exiting the NE seaboard south of a prominent trough. This diverges in mid Atlantic, courtesy of the aforementioned trough and the European ridge, leaving the UK in a slack and potentially unstable shallow low pressure area.so unsettled with temps a little below average

But this pattern quite rapidly de amplifies in the ext period to a weak negatively tilted trough dominating the Atlantic with a very slack flow across the UK to the high pressure now centred over Germany. This would portend much more sett;ed weather with temps creeping above average

Last evening's NOAA is not adverse to this

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

At a glance look at day 10 as it stands from ECM GFS, FV3, GEM.. at least some signs of improvement.. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

It could be because people are trying to run Summer on Windows 10!

The latest NOAA 6 to 10 day 500mb mean chart illustrating the unsettled period quite well still showing some upper troughing close by over the U.K.

Probably again, still with the best of the least unsettled conditions towards the South-East of the U.K, although a look at the models, even that area could see some showers and/or longer spells of damp weather at times. Perhaps nothing too disturbed though. 

The 8 to 14 day 500mb anomaly chart, though, continues to show signs of a weakening of the troughing just to the West of the U.K, with higher than average upper heights along with ridging close by to our East probably becoming more influential. So maybe certainly a possibility for the weather to warm up and settle down a bit the further into June we go?

I think DRL, judging by some of the posts they are trying to run it off windows XP or vista stills some encouraging signs towards mid month... Let's just hope it stay there, and doesn't get pushed back to the final 3rd,then early July... You get the drift... A bit like the winter forecasts... 

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

2 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

I think DRL, judging by some of the posts they are trying to run it off windows XP or vista stills some encouraging signs towards mid month... Let's just hope it stay there, and doesn't get pushed back to the final 3rd,then early July... You get the drift... A bit like the winter forecasts... 

 

Meanwhile rainfall totals next Saturday are just 1mm for the extreme SE,, 70 to 80mm for Scotland.. .

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten.php?map=20&model=gfs&var=18&run=0&time=168&lid=OP&h=0&mv=0&tr=3#mapref

Edited June 1, 2019 by Mapantz