Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!

[Wimbledon88]

Summer definitely on hold according to this chart. Could get pretty interesting down here if this LP develops further and moves in over the south. Hope so! 

Edited May 28, 2019 by Wimbledon88

[damianslaw]

A mixed outlook best way to describe things, preety poor overall for the NW quarter of the UK with atlantic frontal activity and increasingly humid air as we approach the weekend, thereafter the trough comes back and a chilly picture again more showers or rain. The south conversely is going to see a major warm up by Saturday - somewhere could breach the 80 f mark, but looks a very blink and miss burst of heat, with the trough back by Sunday.

Through next week, a holding pattern with the trough perhaps fizzling in situ especially if it is a shallower feature than currently being suggested by ECM and GFS, heights building strongly to the east with associated heat, with a chance the azores high will pull NE and merge bringing much more settled and warmer weather again - a rinse and repeat pattern, with the downstream ridge possibly gaining more influence through mid June but the trough never far away .. could be worse, could be a fair bit better as well, with the SE reaping the better rewards - perhaps a more typical outlook for second half of summer than early June.

 

Edited May 28, 2019 by damianslaw

[MATTWOLVES 3]

If the 1st half of June is gonna be quite mixed, and the 2nd half much warmer I will take it right now!! 

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

We narrowly miss out on the proper first plume event of the season. 

However, at the 200hr mark, an extraordinary angle from the jet stream brings the heat back NW’wards and placing us in a position for plume of the century. 

Supercells would very likely happen if that was to actually come off, given the temperature gradient boundary and screaming jet aloft with all of that Soupy buoyant air feeding in from the SE at the surface! 

That’s as close to a Texas style run I’ve probably ever seen churned out here. 

Edited May 29, 2019 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[knocker]

Outlook - The weather is certainly not without interest over the next few days as warm air is advected across the country as simultaneously frontal systems ingress from the west before more unsettled weather pertains next week as a trough becomes the major player. A heady mix

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

Many areas will start the day with clear skies and quite chilly, even a spot of ground frost north of the border, But cloud and rain/drizzle associated with the double warm front, already effecting the south west will move steadily east through the day with some heavier bursts over N. Ireland and the NW of England by late afternoon as a little wave forms on the second front. The temp variation reflects the movement of the fronts.

The rain continuing through the evening and overnight but generally north of a line N. Wales > Humber and south of this quite cloudy and generally quite mild.

By tomorrow the country is in a broad warm sector with warmer air creeping north but there are complications with another warm front tracking in from the south west bringing further rain to western areas where there will generally bet a lot of Stratus and mist. Drier and much warmer in the south east. The north of Scotland is north of the front so much colder here

Over Thursday night and through Friday the frontal systems continue to straddle the north of the country so still cloud and intermittent rain rain here on what is now a day with temps above average

A dry day on Saturday, possible some rain in the far north, but quite cloudy in some areas with the warm front across the country/ but very warm by now with WAA from the SWS  But the trough in the west is edging closer

And Sunday is transition day as the cold front associated with the ever closer trough slides north east resulting in marked temp contrast with very warm air in the south east and much colder behind the front, A recipe for some thundery outbreaks?

 

[Guest]

Well GFS really has no change this morning in the overall theme, warmth being swept away Sunday, big temp gradient west to east by 18z, 16c in Bristol, maybe 28c east London, again any hopes of an electrical end to warmth appear to have disappeared. 

Next week still looking like the dogs dinner with the trough anchored over the UK and a couple of secondary lows spinning up and affecting the south, if these occurs there could be some really heavy rainfall totals and some very unpleasant conditions , it’s even more miserable further north parts of Scotland could struggle to get of single figures most of the week. 

Tentative signs the troughing May regress westwards towards the 9/10th June allowing summer to get going but it’s such a long way off it’s barely worth a mention. 

[knocker]

To continue briefly with the gfs

Next week it has amplification in the Atlantic with the trough eventually stretching south.The surface low will tend to stay north of the country so continuing unsettled and quite windy at first  Really just to be noted at this stage

[knocker]

The ecm has the cold front clearing the south east on Monday leaving a cool showery day but then whips a low in from the west on Tuesday with rain and strong winds

 

[Guest]

10 minutes ago, knocker said:

The ecm has the cold front clearing the south east on Monday leaving a cool showery day but then whips a low in from the west on Tuesday with rain and strong winds

 

The ECM this morning continues the unsettled theme right through to t240hrs. It’s cool, cloudy and pretty wet and gives a poor start to summer for the entire UK. 

The updated June forecast from the meto increasingly uses terms like mixed, unsettled, showery, cool and any settled spells likely to be in the south east, a very backfoot forecast imo suggesting June could be a poor month (that’s could, not it will) 

[StormChaseUK]

Will await 06z but the gfs looks ok to me cant complain, you have to have those rollercoaster of highs and lows to draw up warm air then displaced with cool, repeat..

 

[Methuselah]

So, the 00Z is rarely anywhere near as dire as what the doomsayers insist, and ends with this:

And the FV3 takes a similar line: the boundary between hot and cold never goes too far away; again, nowhere near as bad as what the doomsters would have us believe:

And, lo and behold, the ensembles point the same way:

                               

The only thing left to do now is to see what the actual weather does?

[mountain shadow]

17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

 

And the FV3 takes a similar line: the boundary between hot and cold never goes too far away; again, nowhere near as bad as what the doomsters would have us believe:

 

Isn't that the problem though. If the boundary between hot and cold is near or over the UK, it's going to be wet.

[StormChaseUK]

13 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

for the member you quoted, wish we could get charts like this, day 1, and the winners, Edberg and Graf

That boundary is what creates the "thundery activity" we need those ingredients - 06z will improve

[Methuselah]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Isn't that the problem though. If the boundary between hot and cold is near or over the UK, it's going to be wet.

I work on a nearby farm on Tuesdays MS, and, believe me, we really do need some rain; the soil is very very dry...

[Wimbledon88]

ECM for this day next week looks like putting summer on hold, to say the least. Plenty of much needed rain with that LP that looks like it may hang about for some time. Summer 2007 repeat anyone? It's possible! 

Edited May 29, 2019 by Wimbledon88

[Frosty.]

There's light at the end of next week's cool unsettled tunnel according to the Ecm 00z ensemble mean..well I think so anyway!!!..in the meantime, enjoy another early taste of summer in the coming days, especially across the s / se.

[ANYWEATHER]

9 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

ECM for this day next week looks like putting summer on hold, to say the least. Plenty of much needed rain with that LP that looks like it may hang about for some time. Summer 2007 repeat anyone? It's possible! 

Good morning, !Yes I did mention a few weeks ago that I think this summer will have shades of 2012 and looking at next week's charts it looks like the first week of summer will have some very disturbed weather, of course a long way to go so we will see if it pans out that way ,but with a crazy jet stream  and it shows no sign of changing due to mainly solar ,and lunar activity, but I'm expecting a summer completly opposite to last year....

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

My take on things is the highs to the east and hot temps will finally make its way west has we go thru June. In the mean time I think next 10 to 14 days after this brief plume of heat We will see a battle between West and East. Bringing some convection with heavy rain/strong winds and storms etc. Eventually has we go thru mid June. The weather will become more settled and warmer. How hot it will get then is up for discussion. That's my take on things after the 00z ecm and 00zgfs runs. Very interesting period coming up that's for sure. 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The weather looks unsettled during next week!!! But why do some feel the need to turn the thumb screws on folk who hope for some decent weather! The same posters who refrain from posting when we are getting the weather that they themselves do not desire! Why do some feel the need to make comparisons with 2007 or 2012 when it's the 29th May! I just can't believe some are making a not very good situation sound very bad. And just what on earth does lunar activity serve in all of this model discussion! Yes it affects the earth's gravity, but the tidal wave in our atmosphere is far to small to cause any major weather phenomenons. And this is a direct quote from NASA! I really think I need to be taking more of my happy pills today, such is the gloom again.. What I will say though is whatever the forecast down the line, I certainly won't be coming on here to rub people's noses in it. We have a low pressure over the UK next week and to my knowledge that won't be spelling the end of summer! 

[Methuselah]

52 minutes ago, Wimbledon88 said:

ECM for this day next week looks like putting summer on hold, to say the least. Plenty of much needed rain with that LP that looks like it may hang about for some time. Summer 2007 repeat anyone? It's possible! 

Indeed W88, an unsettled summer cannot be entirely ruled out, and next Wednesday's GFS prediction looks quite similar to what you've posted:

As to the rest of summer? We'll just have to wait and see?

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

8 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The weather looks unsettled during next week!!! But why do some feel the need to turn the thumb screws on folk who hope for some decent weather! The same posters who refrain from posting when we are getting the weather that they themselves do not desire! Why do some feel the need to make comparisons with 2007 or 2012 when it's the 29th May! I just can't believe some are making a not very good situation sound very bad. And just what on earth does lunar activity serve in all of this model discussion! Yes it affects the earth's gravity, but the tidal wave in our atmosphere is far to small to cause any major weather phenomenons. And this is a direct quote from NASA! I really think I need to be taking more of my happy pills today, such is the gloom again.. What I will say though is whatever the forecast down the line, I certainly won't be coming on here to rub people's noses in it. We have a low pressure over the UK next week and to my knowledge that won't be spelling the end of summer! 

Yes good post totally agree 

[Derecho]

3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

The weather looks unsettled during next week!!! But why do some feel the need to turn the thumb screws on folk who hope for some decent weather! The same posters who refrain from posting when we are getting the weather that they themselves do not desire! Why do some feel the need to make comparisons with 2007 or 2012 when it's the 29th May! I just can't believe some are making a not very good situation sound very bad. And just what on earth does lunar activity serve in all of this model discussion! Yes it affects the earth's gravity, but the tidal wave in our atmosphere is far to small to cause any major weather phenomenons. And this is a direct quote from NASA! I really think I need to be taking more of my happy pills today, such is the gloom again.. What I will say though is whatever the forecast down the line, I certainly won't be coming on here to rub people's noses in it. We have a low pressure over the UK next week and to my knowledge that won't be spelling the end of summer! 

Indeed if anybody wrote off winter on November 28th they would be ridiculed for it...

Nobody can forecast what the weather will do in Summer months well in advance with any skill over this small part of the world, so any comparisons with 2007 and 2012 are futile at this time.

There seems to be a few posters who are trolling and deliberately making the output sound a lot worse then it is. Granted the output isn't brilliant at the moment but they did exactly the same thing last summer also. 

[Frosty.]

Lots to enjoy for the rest of this week according to the ukmo 0h, especially for the s / se with increasingly warmer weather, could reach 27c in the most favoured spots on saturday!

[Methuselah]

It all looks very 'cusplike' to me -- and about as far-removed from 2012 as the signing of the Magna Carta!

 

[danm]

Those stating this summer is likely to be on par with 2007 and 2012 are clearly doing so based on a guess (or troll). Yes, the first week of June looks unsettled but anything beyond that is up for grabs.