Winter 2019/20 | Moans, Ramps & Chat

[Azazel]

cold and damp next week. Can't wait!

[mb018538]

12 minutes ago, Azazel said:

cold and damp next week. Can't wait!

Great isn't it! Never mind - winter solstice in a couple of weeks and we can start looking forward to the slow creep back to light and warmth.

[Azazel]

1 minute ago, mb018538 said:

Great isn't it! Never mind - winter solstice in a couple of weeks and we can start looking forward to the slow creep back to light and warmth.

Yes please! December 13th is only one week away too so we stop losing daylight in the evenings!

[mb018538]

12 hours ago, Onding said:

Always! They call it even though posters at the time are correct to highlight cold charts/potential etc. They then go very quiet when the cold does verify. Not that it does these days!  

The trouble is people spend all winter cherry picking and posting cold charts! Even today when the ensembles are pretty poor for cold weather it's still there. Contagious for sure.

[northwestsnow]

I dont want to moan on the hunt for cold thread but for the vast majority it looks dreadful for cold and snow.

I been here too long to write off a month or more but the next 10 days minimum are so depressing.

I suppose we got 5 to 6 days of lovely cold frosty seasonal weather,but will seem a distant memory soon.

The Canadian vortex is a truly awful thing.

Edited December 5, 2019 by northwestsnow

[booferking]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont want to moan on the hunt for cold thread but for the vast majority it looks dreadful for cold and snow.

I been here too long to write off a month or more but the next 10 days minimum are so depressing.

I suppose we got 5 to 6 days of lovely cold frosty seasonal weather,but will seem a distant memory soon.

The Canadian vortex is a truly awful thing.

Cold zonal can deliver to the North-West 29th Jan 2015

[Iceaxecrampon]

Next weekend looking good at altitude You could always drive up to Kirkstone for a fix (1500ft asl) - follow the snowploughs like we used to do dropping down to Patterdale for a winter Helvellyn 14 miler.....!

Then refreshments all round in the White Lion 

Lovely.

Edited December 5, 2019 by Iceaxecrampon

[Weather-history]

If  your are looking for another December 2010 forget it. 

However, it could be more akin to December 1993 

[knocker]

23 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont want to moan on the hunt for cold thread

How very odd 

[jules216]

Watching this December unfold has a dejavu feeling ever since 2013/14. You can almost set you clock for a colder spell of weather at the turn of the months which promises a lot going forward. The heights in NAO corridor always overplayed whatever model you look at in hours 168+ also the extent of Euro throughing which at the end mostly stays in Scandinavia and just brushes Baltics and Central Europe then gets quickly shuffled away by another deepening through west of Ireland which on the other hand at 168+ range is very much underplayed by models. Worst case scenario happening every single December. When was the last time most of Europe got cold between 10 and 25.12? As winter months come NAO goes positive, all the positive teleconnections dont really matter - vortex displaced to Scandi/Euroasia + Solar min. But the negative ones - slow descending QBO,Indian Ocean dipole,lack of tropical forcing,low GLAAM are almost sure to stamp their authority on atmosphere. It beggars belief that these variables were not present in 60ties  where -NAO was quasi permanent. How come that "good" teleconnections outweight "bad" ones with ease, but now 1 bad one outweighs all good ones - last winter being an example, where it was apparently the shift of QBO from negative to positive that hindered SSW downwelling, or Nina like destructive forcing etc etc. So now Nina forcing is bad? How come we had great winters in past in La Nina then? Too many questions and confusing signals lead to one answer - zonal/mild. Another salt in wounds are all the cold rampers who come out every winter and try to convince public how bad are the mild and seasonal models and how teleconnections favor cold - a lot of them are in east USA and somehow their twitter activity filters through to general followers elsewhere. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by jules216

[Mr Frost]

You have to laugh a bit though - it’s the same people whinging in this thread every year. (No matter what the season)

I know the above is the point of this thread but they then carry that negative vibe elsewhere on the forum. It does not seem to matter which weather preference they have - always down in the dumps and looking to be the biggest vibe assassins/buzz killingtons on the threads. 

Is it a location thing that makes certain folk more prone to moaning about weather they receive? Is it due to previous disappointments from believing charts are going to become reality from 10 days away? Are certain people just born pessimistic? Is it because the UK and Ireland climate is very mundane/pretty non eventful all year round?

Personally I enjoy the chase in all seasons whether that be for snow, thunderstorms or heat but I never get downbeat or throw my toys out the pram If it does not deliver what the charts/models/outlooks show.

Cheer up folks and have a good day. 

Edited December 5, 2019 by Mr Frost

[Iceaxecrampon]

Load of twaddle the lot of you.

My iphone weather has snow for Keswick next week.

Nailed On lol  

[Iceaxecrampon]

3 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

You have to laugh a bit though - it’s the same people whinging in this thread every year. (No matter what the season)

I know the above is the point of this thread but they then carry that negative vibe elsewhere on the forum. It does not seem to matter which weather preference they have - always down in the dumps and looking to be the biggest vibe assassins/buzz killingtons on the threads. 

Is it a location thing that makes certain folk more prone to moaning about weather they receive? Is it due to previous disappointments from believing charts are going to become reality from 10 days away? Are certain people just born pessimistic? Is it because the UK and Ireland climate is very mundane/pretty non eventful all year round?

Personally I enjoy the chase in all seasons whether that be for snow, thunderstorms or heat but I never get downbeat or throw my toys out the pram If it does not deliver what the charts/models/outlooks show.

Cheer up folks and have a good day. 

+1

It's called maturity.

And not Trolling.

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Anyway here comes the 06z....!

[Sceptical]

54 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont want to moan on the hunt for cold thread but for the vast majority it looks dreadful for cold and snow.

I been here too long to write off a month or more but the next 10 days minimum are so depressing.

I suppose we got 5 to 6 days of lovely cold frosty seasonal weather,but will seem a distant memory soon.

The Canadian vortex is a truly awful thing.

For realistic analysis, read the early winter model thread. 

[Azazel]

57 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Is it because the UK and Ireland climate is very mundane/pretty non eventful all year round?

 

This one.

[swfc]

3 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

I dont want to moan on the hunt for cold thread but for the vast majority it looks dreadful for cold and snow.

I been here too long to write off a month or more but the next 10 days minimum are so depressing.

I suppose we got 5 to 6 days of lovely cold frosty seasonal weather,but will seem a distant memory soon.

The Canadian vortex is a truly awful thing.

Yes NW plenty of energy to the north west heading our way.our local weather station guy has said "I'd keep away from sledges and be looking at a boat"threw Dec! Think flooding may be the headline in our area towards Xmas .wonderfull

[swfc]

Good post fromGP just now.looks like staying unsettled threw dec- Jan average temps.cyclonic 

[Walsall Wood Snow]

7 minutes ago, swfc said:

Good post fromGP just now.looks like staying unsettled threw dec- Jan average temps.cyclonic 

Leading on to a bitterly cold and snowy February I'm sure . Too be fair though we're talking too far in the future to get too despondent. Even GP has had to change his opinions accordingly in the past from time to time. So no real need to be write the first two thirds of Winter off just yet.

[weirpig]

4 minutes ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

Leading on to a bitterly cold and snowy February I'm sure . Too be fair though we're talking too far in the future to get too despondent. Even GP has had to change his opinions accordingly in the past from time to time. So no real need to be write the first two thirds of Winter off just yet.

Agree     one thing i like about winter however is the different types of weather.  we may not have brutal  cold  but next week will be very eventful    

[Summer Sun]

 

[Wilxy]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Average, not bad then bring on the rain and gales! 

[Matty88]

So... the usual flip flopping in the charts (nothing new)... not entirely unexpected. We need Europe to freeze over and bring in another beasty easterly... thats the best way to deliver cold! Can't really see that happening for the next 20-30 days at least,  The dreaded Zonal North Westerly do nothing for me down in East Anglia!! Crappy crappy crappy 

[Jemma Croton]

Been back and following the model discussion and charts with all fellow cold hunters since October but haven’t posted this season yet.

Shame for my first post of the season to be a moan but so be it. It’s just SUCH an annoyance when you have cross model agreement for so many days of runs showing promise only for it to all slip away. 10+ years of doing this every darn winter and you’d expect to be used to it but it’s no less gutting every time. It’s hard even to get excited, outside of a major split SSW, for a decent snow event when it seems almost every one slowly slips away.

I’ll still do it, of course I will. But today I’ll moan.

It’s nice to be back doing this with you lot even with such disappointments.

 

[Don]

Going by GP’s post in the mod thread sounds to me like we could be about to experience a similar winter to 2013/14!  Early days still but it was always a case of ignoring the long range seasonal models at you peril!

Edited December 5, 2019 by Don