Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gray-Wolf]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

What Sir Thomas More would have called 'a conspiracy of rich men seeking their commodities'... men without conscience?

It's all about your 'QALYs Pete......

Coronavirus: NHS may prioritise critical care for least vulnerable | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Under 'Three Wise Men' protocol, senior medics would need to decipher which patients to give care such as ventilators and beds to, with a focus on saving...

But keep on with your tube travel eh???

[Blessed Weather]

4 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Isn't political comment inherent to this discussion in that people need to comment on what individual national governments are doing, their own and others - from my days as a student, I believe it's called "comparative politics"...

Discussing what national governments are doing is fine if comments are kept at the government level, e.g. the UK government is right to be doing x or wrong to be doing y. What is not acceptable is to post a personal view regarding the rights/wrongs of communism, capitalism, Trump, Johnson, etc., etc. Let's keep this thread focused on facts and useful information and leave personal political preferences out of it please.

[Spikecollie]

15 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Correct but we've been here before with AGW and unsustainable 'Do's and Don'ts' have we not?

Control is not possible in a World controlled by the great God '$' and pretty soon folk will die because some sad sack has 'collected' monies that should have been paid into the National purse..... Nuff Said!

I think you have misread my comment, GW. I was responding to a post from Blessed Weather regarding a forum ban on political comment and pointing out that it is almost impossible to be apolitical in a discussion such as this because comparison of individual and collective government responses is inevitable.

[Derecho]

Dow Jones is 1200 points in the red today and we are now on track for the worst week in the Stock Markets since the 2008 financial crisis.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Quicksilver1989

[Gray-Wolf]

1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

I think you have misread my comment, GW. I was responding to a post from Blessed Weather regarding a forum ban on political comment and pointing out that it is almost impossible to be apolitical in a discussion such as this because comparison of individual and collective government responses is inevitable.

And I'm agreeing with that and comparing it to the 'bad old days' when the AGW threads were a bit 'Wild West' so Paul acted.....

[Bristawl Si]

8 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It's all about your 'QALYs Pete......

Coronavirus: NHS may prioritise critical care for least vulnerable | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

---

Under 'Three Wise Men' protocol, senior medics would need to decipher which patients to give care such as ventilators and beds to, with a focus on saving...

But keep on with your tube travel eh???

You cant quote from The Mail in here GW; you'll be blacklisted

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Dow Jones is 1200 points in the red and we are now on track for the worst week in the Stock Markets since the 2008 financial crisis.

The cash is waiting to be 'converted' when the time is ripe. Every downturn converts to an opportunity at sometime.

[Derecho]

4 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

The cash is waiting to be 'converted' when the time is ripe. Every downturn converts to an opportunity at sometime.

Hopefully, it's dropping into correction territory for the moment but a few more days of heavy losses like today and we may well end up in bear market territory and that will really put the strength of the markets to the test.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Quicksilver1989

[Spikecollie]

2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Dow Jones is 1200 points in the red and we are now on track for the worst week in the Stock Markets since the 2008 financial crisis.

Why? Because human beings and their systems don't deal very well with uncertainty! There's a great book about decision making by Joseph Hallinan, called "Why we Make Mistakes". That's what all this is about - uncertainty - and people react to it in very different ways. Some try to ride it out (survivalist ideas), some try to control it (government reactions or citizen heroes and leaders), some try to make personal gain from it (looting during a disaster), some become "sheep" doing whatever they are told. There are more but you get the idea...

[nick sussex]

Quite a big jump in cases today in France .  Apparently they’re all linked to people who had been traced as coming into contact with the original 12 reported cases .

 

[Spikecollie]

9 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

And I'm agreeing with that and comparing it to the 'bad old days' when the AGW threads were a bit 'Wild West' so Paul acted.....

Sorry, I don't/didin't know what "AGW" stands for so I misread your comment 

[Gael_Force]

2 hours ago, swebby said:

You would hope so, bad news if the case # is accurate.

Saw this on the flu forum; posted by Italian doctor. It's going to make the CFR look horrendous.

Quote

'In Italy, efforts are being made to communicate only the cases of new clinically relevant coronaviruses, that is, the clinical cases of patients in resuscitation or death, as occurs in other countries of the world': said the scientific director of the Spallanzani Institute, Giuseppe Ippolito, in conference with the foreign press. The 'swab positives made for any other reason will go to an extremely important separate list - he said - for the definition of the epidemiological situation'.

Regards reinfection or dormancy, Chinese are putting some of the cured back into a 'cured quarantine' status as quite a few testing positive on follow up checks. 
 

[DAVID SNOW]

18 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

It's all about your 'QALYs Pete......

Coronavirus: NHS may prioritise critical care for least vulnerable | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

---

Under 'Three Wise Men' protocol, senior medics would need to decipher which patients to give care such as ventilators and beds to, with a focus on saving...

But keep on with your tube travel eh???

If that's aimed at me then yes I will, if the government shuts 'it' down then I wont.

[Methuselah]

3 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Why? Because human beings and their systems don't deal very well with uncertainty! There's a great book about decision making by Joseph Hallinan, called "Why we Make Mistakes". That's what all this is about - uncertainty - and people react to it in very different ways. Some try to ride it out (survivalist ideas), some try to control it (government reactions or citizen heroes and leaders), some try to make personal gain from it (looting during a disaster), some become "sheep" doing whatever they are told. There are more but you get the idea...

You beat me to it. Only the book I read was called Chancing It...I think!

[DAVID SNOW]

4 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite a big jump in cases today in France .  Apparently they’re all linked to people who had been traced as coming into contact with the original 12 reported cases .

 

Where did the original 12 carry the virus from?

[Derecho]

11 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Why? Because human beings and their systems don't deal very well with uncertainty! There's a great book about decision making by Joseph Hallinan, called "Why we Make Mistakes". That's what all this is about - uncertainty - and people react to it in very different ways. Some try to ride it out (survivalist ideas), some try to control it (government reactions or citizen heroes and leaders), some try to make personal gain from it (looting during a disaster), some become "sheep" doing whatever they are told. There are more but you get the idea...

Yup although interestingly markets only seem to deal with short term uncertainty  / profit and not long term issues / sustainability. The drops are quite alarming but the stock markets have just been at record highs, so investors were probably already thinking things may go downwards. Nethertheless I think we could be seeing some big economic impacts from this shortly if it carries on, given I think deep down the markets are fragile and have only been propped up by record low interest rates since the financial crisis. The coronavirus could be beginning to expose that (it had some pretty big wobbles in 2018 so they were perhaps a sign also).

Edited February 27, 2020 by Quicksilver1989

[nick sussex]

NHS are apparently going to start drive through testing.

Hopefully the public will be sensible and not overwhelm the service by attending if they’re not in the high risk category .

At the moment the vast majority of cases in Europe have a direct link . If you haven’t been in contact with someone who has travelled to one of the high case areas or clusters then you’re very unlikely to catch the virus .

Until such time as there’s a widespread situation of people testing positive without any links then that approach would seem to be what governments should be stressing .

If the virus was so easy to catch by just normal day to day interaction then reported cases would have gone through the roof already . 

[nick sussex]

7 minutes ago, DAVID SNOW said:

Where did the original 12 carry the virus from?

They had links with China . The 12 apparently are now the direct link to the jump in cases today . 

[Bristawl Si]

3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Yup although interestingly markets only seem to deal with short term uncertainty  / profit and not long term issues / sustainability. The drops are quite alarming but the stock markets have just been at record highs, so investors were already thinking things may go downwards. Nethertheless I think we could be seeing some big economic impacts from this shortly if it carries on, given I think deep down the markets are fragile and have only been propped up by record low interest rates since the financial crisis.

Yep. Cashed in a couple of co.s' shares last week that i'd held for last couple of years, as they were at record highs. Even before this CV outbreak, certain fundamentals were looking shaky to my eyes.

Having worked in Fin Servs for 36 years one thing you dont take notice of is stock market blips, because over a very long term that is all they are. This is why the very astute investor will always have a diverse portfolio of everyday savings and investments. Individual shares in solid co.s can be left alone in times like now, and any more liquid savings can be used for extra spend or emergency spend.

[Cheshire Freeze]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

NHS are apparently going to start drive through testing.

Hopefully the public will be sensible and not overwhelm the service by attending if they’re not in the high risk category .

At the moment the vast majority of cases in Europe have a direct link . If you haven’t been in contact with someone who has travelled to one of the high case areas or clusters then you’re very unlikely to catch the virus .

Until such time as there’s a widespread situation of people testing positive without any links then that approach would seem to be what governments should be stressing .

If the virus was so easy to catch by just normal day to day interaction then reported cases would have gone through the roof already . 

But how would someone in retail (like me) know if they'd been in contact with such people?

We get people coughing on or around us all day every day.

Edited February 27, 2020 by CreweCold

[Bristawl Si]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

They had links with China . The 12 apparently are now the direct link to the jump in cases today . 

Yep. The good practices in France and UK by the heakth authorities have enabled tracing back of contacts, so isolating cases. Italy seems to be a basket case in that respect.

[DAVID SNOW]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

They had links with China . The 12 apparently are now the direct link to the jump in cases today . 

The threat has been talked about in here for weeks, French gov  should have banned all flights from china weeks ago..

[Spikecollie]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

They had links with China . The 12 apparently are now the direct link to the jump in cases today . 

You beat me to it, Nick, I was too busy reading other posts!

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

But how would someone in retail (like me) know if they'd been in contact with such people?

You wouldn’t . But normal contact is unlikely to lead to catching the virus. Unless they sneezed or coughed near you then that would be a problem .

If just chatting to someone or walking by them was enough to catch the virus then cases in Europe would be very much higher .

I’m not trying to play down fears. But I think a sense of proportion is needed until such time as we see things change .

[DAVID SNOW]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Yep. The good practices in France and UK by the heakth authorities have enabled tracing back of contacts, so isolating cases. Italy seems to be a basket case in that respect.

Italy the basket case of Europe, yes it could true... again.