Novel Coronavirus – China

[Snipper]

25 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

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I know people keep saying there are thousands of deaths every year from seasonal flu but the rate is estimated to be 0.1%, if you do the maths on the current known cases 82526 divided by 100 and then times by the deaths 2812 that currently gives 3.4%

Which country is in any better position? Unless they are a dictatorship who are prepared to exercise draconian powers and spend money as if it is going out of fashion. 

[swebby]

37 minutes ago, thundercrazy said:

......

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I know people keep saying there are thousands of deaths every year from seasonal flu but the rate is estimated to be 0.1%, if you do the maths on the current known cases 82526 divided by 100 and then times by the deaths 2812 that currently gives 3.4%

Yes that is the thing with CFRs - they are a backward looking measure.  You could try and compare current mortality to the case # an arbitrary number of days back but that fails if how cases were being picked up changes, i.e the efficiency of monitoring is variable or plain incorrect.  I had been hoping that the China numbers were missing a large number of unreported cases, this is possible as there are confirmed cases where patients have negligible symptoms. This must be the case in Iran, the number of cases there has to be way off, if  not then the lethality of Covid-19 in Iran is well above and beyond the likes of Yellow Fever.

[Polar Maritime]

A school up the road from me in Buxton has been shut due to a kids parent being tested positive.

[Climate Man]

6 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

A school up the road from me in Buxton has been shut due to a kids parent being tested positive.

Surely the kid should stay at home and the kids should go to school.

[ciel]

4 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

Surely the kid should stay at home and the kids should go to school.

I understand the school has been closed for a 'deep clean'. Whether it remains closed or not, I suppose, will depend on the outcome of contact tracing/testing or the ever changing 'official' advice.

[Guest Delete Me]

A guy on the Covid-2019 discord server who works for Weatherspoons has just told me that they've sent an email to all employees saying anyone who needs to self isolate will have to use holiday entitlement and any sick pay is only £50 a day. 

[emax]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

No; the emergence of a novel virus is to blame for this outbreak (or, more likely, pandemic?)...the politics is irrelevant: leaders, the world over, need to start showing some leadership, before the last vestiges of control are lost?

We really are -- the entire global population, that is -- in this thing together...

Now if only there was a group of experts.....we'll call them doctors...........who discovered this long before it became widespread??? Can you imagine how much better things would be if this was spotted early on......oh, thats right, it was!! Now, I wonder, who was responsible for covering up this knowledge and allowing this virus to rapidly spread? Hmmm??

[swebby]

6 minutes ago, emax said:

I refer you to my previous post

Which one?  If it is the one about "a group of experts" then you are assuming that this could have been nipped in the bud?  I have my doubts that this was ever a feasible outcome, that's based on the the initial number of cases from the Wuhan market area.  This thing was off and running from day 1, blaming anyone is pointless.  

I am in no way condoning China's political system, and the local Chinese authorities actions against the medical staff, that were rightly trying to raise concerns, were reprehensible but you can find this level of bureaucratic idiocy any any social system 

[weirpig]

26 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

A guy on the Covid-2019 discord server who works for Weatherspoons has just told me that they've sent an email to all employees saying anyone who needs to self isolate will have to use holiday entitlement and any sick pay is only £50 a day. 

Seems ok to me   50 pounds a day is decent.  most companies only pay SSP  which is way less 

[emax]

3 minutes ago, swebby said:

Which one?  If it is the one about "a group of experts" then you are assuming that this could have been nipped in the bud?  I have my doubts that this was ever a feasible outcome, that's based on the the initial number of cases from the Wuhan market area.  This thing was off and running from day 1, blaming anyone is pointless.  

I am in no way condoning China's political system, and the local Chinese authorities actions against the medical staff, that were rightly trying to raise concerns, were reprehensible but you can find this level of bureaucratic idiocy any any social system 

Really? So if they knew about it a month before, when it was just a relatively localised virus and not chinese new year, it wouldnt of made much difference? 

[Guest Delete Me]

32 minutes ago, ciel said:

I understand the school has been closed for a 'deep clean'. Whether it remains closed or not, I suppose, will depend on the outcome of contact tracing/testing or the ever changing 'official' advice.

I work in a school with 1000 students and 150 staff and my view is that deep cleans are pointless.

Droplet infection is not active over time and distance so sanitising surfaces is a yes,  aerosolized infection through sneezing, coughing, talking, breathing remains in the airflow and survives the test of time and distance via air handling units, air conditioning, vents and ducts etc. As seen on the diamond cruise ship you can self isolate all you want but with an open passage of air throughout the ship you will breath in those tiny 1 nanometer particles that will go straight down into your Alveoli and infect you

[swebby]

1 minute ago, emax said:

Really? So if they knew about it a month before, when it was just a relatively localised virus and not chinese new year, it wouldnt of made much difference? 

Doubtful. If patient zero had occurred in some rural town and it had been picked up with less than 20 infections, then maybe.  But this was in the middle of a city of 11+ million people.  Outcome would probaly have been the same if it had been London, New York, Cairo or Rio.

[Astral Goat Juice]

3 hours ago, swebby said:

This one on the beeb seems a little clearer, and does seem to confirm what you are saying AG.

Coronavirus: Will I get paid if I self-isolate?

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Health Secretary Matt Hancock says Britons returning from locked-down Italian towns must self-isolate.

Would you have a link you are able to post for the legislation that would cover pay for self quarantine? The 1984 control of disease act seems to cover the ability for authorities to order self quarantine (and also compensation for some businesses) but not seeing much about employees rights.

 

Hi Swebby,

I doubt you will find anything of the sort as it's not something that employers or the government will want to advertise, we have just been told this during a Government course. As I said earlier, lots of changes to contracts and employment come April too. 

[Bristawl Si]

2 hours ago, thundercrazy said:

 

I know people keep saying there are thousands of deaths every year from seasonal flu but the rate is estimated to be 0.1%, if you do the maths on the current known cases 82526 divided by 100 and then times by the deaths 2812 that currently gives 3.4%

Jeez, how many more times do I and others have to repeat?!

There are 000s more deaths every year from flu-induced diseases, like pneumonia, so the 0.1% is misleading, as that is attributed directly to influenza itself, with no other cause involved.

[emax]

3 minutes ago, swebby said:

Doubtful. If patient zero had occurred in some rural town and it had been picked up with less than 20 infections, then maybe.  But this was in the middle of a city of 11+ million people.  Outcome would probaly have been the same if it had been London, New York, Cairo or Rio.

Soooo, why is everyone getting so worked up over quarantine and spreading etc? If knowing about the virus nearly a month earlier when it was much much smaller, would of made no difference, whats the point of bothering with everything? Might as well just carry on with normal life and let it run its course then??

[Astral Goat Juice]

44 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

A guy on the Covid-2019 discord server who works for Weatherspoons has just told me that they've sent an email to all employees saying anyone who needs to self isolate will have to use holiday entitlement and any sick pay is only £50 a day. 

Feel sorry for the people who don't challenge this and accept it. Ignorance is bliss. 

[weirpig]

Just now, Astral Goat Juice said:

Feel sorry for the people who don't challenge this and accept it. Ignorance is bliss. 

Why?  what do you feel employees  should get?.

[ciel]

7 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

I work in a school with 1000 students and 150 staff and my view is that deep cleans are pointless.

Droplet infection is not active over time and distance so sanitising surfaces is a yes,  aerosolized infection through sneezing, coughing, talking, breathing remains in the airflow and survives the test of time and distance via air handling units, air conditioning, vents and ducts etc. As seen on the diamond cruise ship you can self isolate all you want but with an open passage of air throughout the ship you will breath in those tiny 1 nanometer particles that will go straight down into your Alveoli and infect you

I wasn't actually commenting on the value or otherwise of deep cleaning, but presumably the authorities were advised from above to carry this out.

[Guest Delete Me]

Fully expect this kind of behaviour from some businesses, the likes of Ryanair spring to mind.

[swebby]

5 minutes ago, emax said:

Soooo, why is everyone getting so worked up over quarantine and spreading etc? If knowing about the virus nearly a month earlier when it was much much smaller, would of made no difference, whats the point of bothering with everything? Might as well just carry on with normal life and let it run its course then??

Find me a politician that will stand in front of camera and say that and i will show you the loser of the next election.

If you are entertaining the thought that quarantine measures are now about stopping the virus then i fear you have misplaced confidence, this is about controlling "the rate" it spreads so that the impacts are mitigated. E.g. NHS England has 6000 ICU beds, with a normal occupancy rate of 70-90%, so 600-1800 spare bed capacity. The trick isd to make sure a huge number of England's 60mil populace don't catch this at the same time.

Edited February 27, 2020 by swebby

[Bristawl Si]

Government policy, so far, seems to be working. Only new cases in recent days are from people returning from abroad over the last week. The spread from those who were quaranteened, and either deemed as free of CV, or those that were originally infected, is nil i think.

As with any healthcare policy in times like this, it will obviously be a moveable strategy as things progress. Perfectly normal.

Havent seen many critics on here actually coming up with alternative solutions.

And remember, any restrictions on movement, travel, movement of goods, etc will impact the economy, and those that would suffer the most would be those who are already struggling. A healthy economy with the better-off paying most of the taxation supports the welfare state and the NHS.

Edited February 27, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Political comment removed.

[emax]

2 minutes ago, swebby said:

Find me a politician that will stand in front of camera and say that and i will show you the loser of the next election.

If you are entertaining the thought that quarantine measures are now about stopping the virus then i fear you have misplaced confidence, this is about controlling "the rate" it spreads so that the impacts are mitigated. E.g. NHS England has 6000 ICU beds, with a normal occupancy rate of 70-90%, so 600-1800 spare bed capacity. The trick isd to make sure a huge number of England's 60mil populace don't catch this at the same time.

But you just more or less said it spreads no matter what? If quarantining and restricting methods wouldnt of worked in china a month before they finally acknowledged it, when the virus was relatively small and localised, then why bother now when its spread around the globe? Going by your theory, its just a waste of time to try to even slow it down?

[Snipper]

16 minutes ago, emax said:

Soooo, why is everyone getting so worked up over quarantine and spreading etc? If knowing about the virus nearly a month earlier when it was much much smaller, would of made no difference, whats the point of bothering with everything? Might as well just carry on with normal life and let it run its course then??

A hoped for chance that a vaccine could be made, manufactured and used if a delay in spread could occur?

 

[Astral Goat Juice]

19 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Why?  what do you feel employees  should get?.

It's not what employers should get, it's statutory law if in fact you wasn't sick. Read my previous posts. 

I'd take them to court in an instant if it turned out I wasn't sick and didn't have the Coronavirus and win. 

[Snipper]

13 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

.

Havent seen many critics on here actually coming up with alternative solutions.

 

Yes.  Too many experts who are not in the firing line.