Model Output Discussion - heading into April

[Guest]

UKMO, ICON and GFS all similar @ T144 with high pressure relaxing its grip to north east and a trough starting to influence the UK. Certainly looks at though any break down won't go out with any spectacular bang, there's no plume and no sharpness to the trough currently, would be more of a whimper than a bang. Still looks pretty straightforward to say they'll be no further rain across most of the south this month. +

EDIT - GFS going down any interesting route around the T200 mark, the cut forms and anchors to the south west drawing a warmer feed from the south east - me likey!!

Edited May 25, 2020 by Guest

[shaky]

1 minute ago, Alderc said:

UKMO, ICON and GFS all similar @ T144 with high pressure relaxing its grip to north east and a trough starting to influence the UK. Certainly looks at though any break down won't go out with any spectacular bang, there's no plume and no sharpness to the trough currently, would be more of a whimper than a bang. Still looks pretty straightforward to say they'll be no further rain across most of the south this month. +

EDIT - GFS going down any interesting route around the T200 mark, the cut forms and anchors to the south west drawing a warmer feed from the south east - me likey!!

Honestly the output is brilliant!!that cut off low is yummy!!pulls in even more warmth and extends the current dry and warm spell!!!northerly cancelled out again!!

[Mike Poole]

It is now becoming clear, to me at least, that the ridge over the top of the cut off low is the form horse.  GFS T192:

This is what I was commenting on, on yesterday's GEM run (12z),  this brings the jet stream north, and could, indeed should, result in a hot spell through much of June, although extent of thundery interludes is less certain...

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

4 minutes ago, shaky said:

Honestly the output is brilliant!!that cut off low is yummy!!pulls in even more warmth and extends the current dry and warm spell!!!northerly cancelled out again!!

Not really sure about cut off lows tbh aren't they known to put an end to warm and dry spells ?  
 

[Mike Poole]

Just now, 38.7°C said:

Not really sure about cut off lows tbh aren't they known to put an end to warm and dry spells ?  
 

No, I don't think so, proper Spanish plumes are known to do that as the Atlantic barges in afterwards, but the Atlantic is blocked in the current situation, so the cut off low if in the right position will act as a heat pump, but won't break the pattern down.

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Just now, 38.7°C said:

Not really sure about cut off lows tbh aren't they known to put an end to warm and dry spells ?  
 

I think if it stays further north yes. But it's heading towards Portugal area. So it's bring warm of the continent. I reckon thats the trend for June. Warmth spreading from the S. E 

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

2 minutes ago, weathermadbarnsleylad said:

I think if it stays further north yes. But it's heading towards Portugal area. So it's bring warm of the continent. I reckon thats the trend for June. Warmth spreading from the S. E 

Did earlier cfs charts show this??? I no the person to ask is @Mike Poole

Edit: speak of the devil. Lol

Edited May 25, 2020 by weathermadbarnsleylad
Missed text

[weathermadbarnsleylad]

Gfs 12z goes all over the place from 200hr onwards bring bringing - 4 850s lol don't think so. Wouldn't put too much confidence too far ahead maybe Fridaycoming at best. All FI after my opinion. But I'm guessing will be outlier on ensemble. 

[Methuselah]

12Z looks spiffing on Day 10...But, something nasty could be brewing, up north, and coming our way, come Day 11?

      

Edited May 25, 2020 by General Cluster

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The way I see it is the rest of this week is looking good and a good chunk of Central/Southern England looks good for the weekend also. Take a look at GEM.. we have Heights over scandy and the Azores High nudging North into the Atlantic.. The Atlantic is literally being cut off, no two words about it. Mobility seems to have gone out of the window. Lots more barbecue weather incoming looks a good call. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

GFS 12 at around 280 goes from Mid July heat to Mid Febuary chills in a matter of days. Lets hope its wrong!!!  

[matt111]

Another GFS cliff edge to follow all the recent ones. Another outlier to continue the run of outliers that keep being churned out? 

[Djdazzle]

5 minutes ago, matt111 said:

Another GFS cliff edge to follow all the recent ones. Another outlier to continue the run of outliers that keep being churned out? 

It’s almost a given now.

[Mike Poole]

8 minutes ago, MATT said:

The way I see it is the rest of this week is looking good and a good chunk of Central/Southern England looks good for the weekend also. Take a look at GEM.. we have Heights over scandy and the Azores High nudging North into the Atlantic.. The Atlantic is literally being cut off, no two words about it. Mobility seems to have gone out of the window. Lots more barbecue weather incoming looks a good call. 

 

Yes, I was just looking at the GEM, Matt, it looks now that the hot weather could be locked in for a while, as some of us have been saying, and the longer range models have been predicting for a while now.  It will be interesting to see what the MO contingency planners forecast for Jun-Aug will say, the de facto summer forecast, maybe out tomorrow?  

GEM T204:

[Mike Poole]

12 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

GFS 12 at around 280 goes from Mid July heat to Mid Febuary chills in a matter of days. Lets hope its wrong!!!  

It will be,  T280, seriously?

[MATTWOLVES 3]

11 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

It will be,  T280, seriously?

Yes Mike, we have this problem all Winter with the GFS, where it constantly shows Ntlys beyond day 10..and they rarely even get down to the 5 day Mark.. I'm curious as to why so many take this model so seriously, especially at 10+ days. 

[Daniel*]

11 minutes ago, MATT said:

Yes Mike, we have this problem all Winter with the GFS, where it constantly shows Ntlys beyond day 10..and they rarely even get down to the 5 day Mark.. I'm curious as to why so many take this model so seriously, especially at 10+ days. 

I’m curious why some in here are infatuated by ICON and GEM? The former is a terrible model it had its 5 minutes of fame in February 2018 and from then it keeps being wheeled out. When it ain’t looking good often...

[Mike Poole]

Hey folks, as we wait for the ECM, this thread is as buzzing as I've seen it, this time of year, even allowing for the promising summer signals.  I've said before, one hobby that we still can do is model watching, and how the early part of summer will unfold is fascinating.  Happy model watching and stay safe!

[Methuselah]

I knows it's Day 16 and all that, but I can't help getting the feeling that, sooner or later (and probably before late June) our weather will markedly heat up:

    

Edited May 25, 2020 by General Cluster

[Mike Poole]

14 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m curious why some in here are infatuated by ICON and GEM? The former is a terrible model it had its 5 minutes of fame in February 2018 and from then it keeps being wheeled out. When it ain’t looking good often...

Firstly it is looking good.

Secondly, ICON is first out so always gets attention, as did the really poor GME beforehand.

Thirdly, the GEM has had a major upgrade in the last year, that is why it is out later now.  And currently topping the charts at day 10 (labelled CMC on chart):

Edited May 25, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Djdazzle]

15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m curious why some in here are infatuated by ICON and GEM? The former is a terrible model it had its 5 minutes of fame in February 2018 and from then it keeps being wheeled out. When it ain’t looking good often...

GFS does itself no favours by going out to 384 and constantly churning out absurd outliers and wild swings from one run to the next. I don’t think that anybody is infatuated with any model - they just comment on what they show.

Edited May 25, 2020 by Djdazzle

[MATTWOLVES 3]

18 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m curious why some in here are infatuated by ICON and GEM? The former is a terrible model it had its 5 minutes of fame in February 2018 and from then it keeps being wheeled out. When it ain’t looking good often...

I'm not a big poster of icon Daniel.. I tend to view ECM.. UKMO and then gem mostly. And yes icon seems to only have 1 claim to fame. But it is the mods thread so being as most of the data is free we do tend to view all with sincerity. 

Edited May 25, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Daniel*]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Firstly it is looking good.

Secondly, ICON is first out so always gets attention, as did the really poor GME beforehand.

Thirdly, the GEM has had a major upgrade in the last year, that is why it is out later now.  And currently topping the charts at day 10:

It looks inconsistent with its success a mixed bag the model has greatest amplitude of going wrong. Looking at that GFS has performed better than this model, for much of month. Not sure why some Here though are always try to undermine GFS model it is a top 3 model imo. 

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

It looks inconsistent with its success a mixed bag the model has greatest amplitude of going wrong. Looking at that GFS has performed better than this model, for much of month. Not sure why some Here though are always try to undermine GFS model it is a top 3 model imo. 

4th, I think.

[Mike Poole]

ECM T120, looks like going for the cut off low and ridge over sooner, here compared to UKMO at same time: