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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, the GFS 06Z certainly ends well: I'm not interested in the day-to-day detail; but, assuming the upcoming northerly to be the tPV's dying breath, the heat building over Europe gains in importance...And sub-5C uppers look about to go extinct!:clapping::yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

It’s an utterly awful end, slow moving fronts delivering heavy rain for days - no thanks....

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weathermadbarnsleylad Aficionado

weathermadbarnsleylad

Posted
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Kendray,Barnsley,God's county.
Posted

I don't think any models have got an handle on the forecast for the end of the week. I think we could see a few surprises popping up before long. Even if it does turn cooler. I'm sure it will warm back up before too long. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s an utterly awful end, slow moving fronts delivering heavy rain for days - no thanks....

Well, I don't know about you; but I'd love to see some proper rain, and would prefer 'warm' rain over cold, anytime. Yes please!:oldgood:

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted
33 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

the bbc long range isnt worth the paper or screen, its written on.

I think it's wrong to start singling out professional weather organisations as useless.. We all gave the Met hell for there long range winter forecast the other year... The bottom line is its extremely difficult to forecast that far out in this country at that kind of range. So it's just a case of relying on what kind of background signals maybe leading us.. And even then they can get overridden by other factors. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
42 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, I for one, would take the 06Z at T+333!:oldlaugh:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Mustn't allow One Run Syndrome to spread; it's highly contagious!:crazy:

Yes, an R0 of about 3 I think!

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Alderc said:

It’s an utterly awful end, slow moving fronts delivering heavy rain for days - no thanks....

Probably thundery rain as well. 06z GFS showing hundreds of j/kg CAPE near the end.

That's what you want isn't it?

Edited by Zak M
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Wow this sure is a hot topic, I burned my fingers on my expensive Apple tablet !!!..anyhoo, although I have no reactions left, I do have an opinion on the GEFS 6z!..it seems the nadir is around next fri / sat but looking further ahead, I sense a recovery and I honestly believe June won’t be a stinker, I think towards mid month and beyond we could be enjoying temps well into the 20’s c again plus some high pressure but also a chance of very warm / hot & humid / thundery spells!!☀️?️
46D04986-5798-4FA8-A983-FDF1E1F2F155.thumb.png.0724ba413fb45061a2538c60f7044058.png9700192D-1B76-4B78-A37C-D5DAEE845709.thumb.png.d281ca929719c66ef74331f40d93124e.pngC30C0BAA-58B3-46C4-B6C2-B746CEBBA68B.thumb.png.76520720bfe052a939302bd5aef857cc.png939D98BF-ADF2-47EB-8262-6DAC3F85212F.thumb.png.4fe6d1790887c396f4ccc7aa34dd05fd.png55DF772F-DFB3-449A-8D86-DC4ADC810B89.thumb.png.37c3799664a5d18c9f5a38eca262b9a0.png69C374F5-46E6-4426-9469-5387C3560701.thumb.png.b3c4ff9727c90d6caaa77791d07aecf3.png294C9DC2-4322-4BEA-9BC7-9A57675F5A96.thumb.png.ea6700493f9c1c91ef4b79a806789968.png8815185D-A371-4600-B9B1-8D7D8F78437F.thumb.png.55e5ddf4c8368dbb2d46f5e6556a069d.pngAC922FFE-2441-4E80-8DC7-4F000B37D03E.thumb.png.19d0ef3c80abfc5252596916afd4ae65.png93391FF0-5265-4E87-9EE2-152A67EF45FA.thumb.png.9165fd27bc2803aecd29269931d48ba8.png4AF4C1C6-EC9A-4A97-8999-971416633494.thumb.png.ac440acf414d86f3fb3ff49516582582.png

 

Edited by JON SNOW
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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Indeed Karl, the GEFS 06Z ensembles are nae bad, either::oldgood:

t850Bedfordshire.png    prmslBedfordshire.png

t2mBedfordshire.png    prcpBedfordshire.png

Temps mostly okay, but little sign of any persistent frontal rain...What a shame!:oldlaugh:

Edited by General Cluster
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mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
42 minutes ago, MATT☀️ said:

I think it's wrong to start singling out professional weather organisations as useless.. We all gave the Met hell for there long range winter forecast the other year... The bottom line is its extremely difficult to forecast that far out in this country at that kind of range. So it's just a case of relying on what kind of background signals maybe leading us.. And even then they can get overridden by other factors. 

Exactly, i know how it works, lol, and no one can yet predict with any degree of accuracy a LRF, hence i dont use them. The quality of the BBC though has declined since they left the Met Office.

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Popular Post
Posted

Worth bearing in mind that AAM is not forecast to start recovering upward until the mid-point of the month. This suggests that during week 3 is when a sustained return to high pressure in warm places for the UK becomes probable again.

In the meantime, some sliding low shenanigans are plausible. A low getting stuck over the UK for more than a couple of days is likely an extreme solution, though. Often in recent years, we’ve seen them drop to our southwest initially... something to look out for any suggestion of - though as we know, the models tend to position them too far east outside of 3 or 4 days range.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

The CFS again leads the way from mid month and beyond.. I've just noticed from the Exter update that if your wishing for a decent amount of rainfall... You may be disappointed if your location is the South and West.. And again considerable uncertainty up to that point, but with unsettled conditions most likely being pegged back to the NW of the UK. The CFS op also showing this High Pressure dominated set up moving forward.. Hopefully the mid term more reliable models will start to show this very soon. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)

ICON T180, after an unsettled mid part of the run, high pressure pushing back now, this is still only June 8.

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Should be OK, it is maybe a little early given forecast of AAM by CFS, by that measure we are looking at mid month before the renewed push from the Azores really takes hold, I think...

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It isn't the only driver though, by any means.

Edited by Mike Poole
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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

We still have 2 or 3 more fine and warm days before a change to cooler conditions, with some rain around. This most likely in N/NE locations.. Perhaps by day 8 the first signs of a recovery of pressure towards the West.. All is not lost, I still feel this could be only a sevaral day unsettled spell.

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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

image.thumb.gif.11a2da37f74b48154debc684da1f1d4b.gif

Terrible ukmo 144 chart tonight - cool with gales and rain. 

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Leo97t Aficionado

Leo97t

Posted
Posted (edited)

not far off a horrorshow for the end of next week on the icon and GFS for this time of year. Low pressure has become much more influential in the short term - particularly further north and east

edit UKMO is even worse - would rival 10th June 2019

Edited by Leo97t
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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted (edited)

The UKMO chart @ T144 is an absolute stinker and starting to get into range, while a splash of rain wouldn't hurt a depending storm with howling northerly gales is not what is required. Backed up pretty well be GFS. Temps only mid teens and a strong wind is going to feel unpleasant. 

Edited by Guest
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mb018538 Maestro

mb018538

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
Posted

image.thumb.gif.3e04aa5ae16fd7f6b0af8144a7186de9.gif

Welcome to June....

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted (edited)

Well, I'll be blowed; a chance of some meaningful rain::yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

Though, I wouldn't bet my house on it; that low looks a tad overblown!:oldlaugh:

Edited by General Cluster
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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Okay then, UKMO. We did ask for some rain, but not with gales and other extremes!

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Guest

Guest

Posted
Posted

GFS 12Z looks like a recovery if quick to come however the UK remains stuck under a cold pool with temps in the mid teens Thurs-Monday. With high pressure apparently intent on hanging out west its not unreasonable to suggest further incursions from the north could be on the cards. The Atlantic looks absolutely dead, I think its just a case of where high pressure ends up for the foreseeable future. 

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Djdazzle Veteran

Djdazzle

Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
Posted
3 minutes ago, Alderc said:

GFS 12Z looks like a recovery if quick to come however the UK remains stuck under a cold pool with temps in the mid teens Thurs-Monday. With high pressure apparently intent on hanging out west its not unreasonable to suggest further incursions from the north could be on the cards. The Atlantic looks absolutely dead, I think its just a case of where high pressure ends up for the foreseeable future. 

The smart money seems to be on the HP moving east over time, and the models may take a while to pick up on that.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

Well we may be in for a rough few days, weather wise, but it isn't going to last 10 flipping weeks like the lockdown. GFS T240, that I am happy with!

image.thumb.jpg.fc9b3644e0aadc293e3c2fb8e73ae903.jpg

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Not at all bad, for June 11; and, just what some of us have been hoping for::oldgood:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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