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Model Output Discussion - heading into April

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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knocker Maestro

knocker

Posted
  • Location: Camborne
  • Location: Camborne
Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

ECM looked like a big Northerly was going to develop at 168 hours onwards instead  2 days later  we get a Southerly developing.Comical modelling again.

I have to say I'm puzzled by this developing southerly

168.thumb.png.d64fb584355bd40bbb8b7ab762f41a47.png180.thumb.png.dab3513c1415add0a2f9e034561cfd4d.png192.thumb.png.229c7271564dda0cb713321a47dddaf8.png

Edited by knocker
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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted
25 minutes ago, stodge said:

I suspect those hoping for a N'ly or E'ly in April are going to be disappointed with a more Atlantic profile than seemed likely a few days ago but early May may yet produce a late chill, we'll see.

I suspect you will probably be correct.  A late chill in early May is unlikely to excite many, but there you go!

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Don Maestro

Don

Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Very similar evolution at day 10 on 12z Vs 18z

4CFA1266-D4DF-4D4F-8752-6C94C794B1D4.png

CEF0A712-B730-4D32-A1AE-CAC9A8C57D92.png

GFS has been on the booze again this evening!  Deary me....

Edited by Don
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 18z T+204 is a stonker!

image.thumb.png.89b8f847859413c19f65527ac225b5bd.png

Something has to give here,southerlies or northerlies

this run carries on with the northerly right out to 360 so far,can a northerly sustain that long?,i suppose if the heights stay there to the NW long enough

going to post the animated run in a moment.

anim_yfq7.thumb.gif.c1c3dcca5be83743d35f374cfddfd63f.gifsource.thumb.gif.a84d0953b1ddeb9d593745d484107c24.gif

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Popular Post
Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, Don said:

GFS has been on the booze again this evening!  Deary me....

I think this run is clapping for the NHS 

god bless them:clap:

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Is the TPV paying us a visit...?

control run.

gensnh-0-1-204.thumb.png.08a942df091fe03ae4f2621b906d6bf9.pnggensnh-0-0-204.thumb.png.c0f868e0390ba15bb4cf22e9a0227e56.png

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Anyone want to predict if the 2nd Northerly in a weeks time is going to materialise,looks good at t144 hours still, then it goes pear shaped, but too far out to be sure how it's going to pan out. 

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Well, I don't what year holds the record for Smarch sunshine, but this year must surely be 'up there' somewhere?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

 

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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted
5 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Well, I don't what year holds the record for Smarch sunshine, but this year must surely be 'up there' somewhere?

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

 

 

Smarch has been amazing, let's hope the summer months continue to be like smarch.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Now, were April to start off like this, even I'll be happy to put summer on hold, for a wee while!:yahoo:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Sub 510 dam would be sensational for early April..wow!!

E5705789-C749-47FB-A3F2-F8D47F28CDD1.thumb.png.1f5b3aae981d6c1fcd17e2f4ea9d0251.png1F8D0D03-01F6-4F54-97B6-1BB79B1378F3.thumb.png.151f0c04d2225ca45b4f58ecdda44cb8.png

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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
Posted

Friday 27 for an update on the 500 mb anomaly charts

Ec-gfs bit like chalk and cheese perhaps? Even orientation of troughs is at 180 degrees!, gfs still has a thin sliver of +ve heights from ne America into uk beneath its large area of –ve heights/troughing into e’ern Europe. Ec has marked troughing aligned ne-sw clipping n uk and out towards azores so contour flow into uk is s of w as opposed to gfs which is n of w.

Noaa 6-10 has cintour flow into uk also n of w but is not really like either ec or gfs. Differences such as this lend a feeling of little confidence in the upper air pattern 6-10 days perios; the 8-14 noaa shows an atlantic flow about w, perhaps a touch s of w. This is perhaps the ‘form horse’ really. With the blocking set up currently being shown

The UK met Fax upper air chart for 2 April still keeps the flow n of w over uk but markedly declines the surface and upper high feature.

So a waiting game until all 3 show similar patterns but I rather favour the atlantic flow idea shown on noaa 8-14.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

 

and the Met O Fax set of charts=scroll down to the bottom beyond T+120h

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn UK Met Office Fax Charts - UKMOMSLP Analysis and Prognosis - org

WWW.WEATHERCHARTS.ORG
UK Met Office . . Europe and North Atlantic MSLP analysis and prognosis charts

 

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cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

lets hope the summer months continue to be like sthis.

image.thumb.png.40bd26a198b0b3ccfa947f06946404f4.png

Looking dry over Yorkshire Feb1991

C.S

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

Looking dry over Yorkshire Feb1991

C.S

Not right on the border with Lancs it isn't.

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted

Would absolutely love this to happen! 

h500slp (11).png

h500slp (12).png

h500slp (13).png

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snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Oh gfs, gfs, you promise so much, and yet, you deliver so little...........

Better stick with Amazon prime fresh!

 

 

gfseu-0-186.png

gfseu-1-186.png

gfseu-0-192.png

gfseu-1-192.png

186-574UK.gif

192-574UK.gif

204-574UK.gif

240-574UK.gif

gfseu-0-378.png

gfseu-1-378.png

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SLEETY Veteran

SLEETY

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
Posted

Now gfs decides the Northerly will make it, lol this model will make its mind up eventually 

TBH it's only now the Northerly is hitting the semi reliable  time frame anything beyond t144 should be taken with a large dose of septisim, especially when Northerly airstreams  and maritime Arctic air is involved. 

It's certainly helping taking the mind off other matters, let's keep the uncertainty going then weather models!! 

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted

Horribly cold outlook here for the next week 10 days..winter is really dragging on yet again

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
14 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

The GFS is being very childish as usual.

thought it would be an outlier but its not - the GEFS are a stonker as well, or about half of them are.

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