Summer 2020 - Moans, Ramps & Chat

[MattStoke]

Impressive.

[kold weather]

2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Impressive.

One of the most insane heat forecasts this part of the country will have ever seen, and could well eclipse even Aug 03 and June/July 76 if that were to come off.

That could well also extend through to at least Wednesday as well based on the 12z suite.

[MattStoke]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

One of the most insane heat forecasts this part of the country will have ever seen, and could well eclipse even Aug 03 and June/July 76 if that were to come off.

That could well also extend through to at least Wednesday as well based on the 12z suite.

No month has ever seen 5 days of temperatures reaching 35’C let along consecutively.

[Djdazzle]

MetOffice App - Heathrow.

Friday: 37C
Saturday: 37C
Sunday: 36C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 36C
Wednesday: 36C
Thursday: 33C

[clark3r]

18z 36 tomorrow, 35 sat,Sunday, Monday, 34 Tuesday 30 31 possible Wednesday 

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, clark3r said:

18z 36 tomorrow, 35 sat,Sunday, Monday, 34 Tuesday 30 31 possible Wednesday 

Is that for your area mate?

[clark3r]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Is that for your area mate?

South East 

[Guest]

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

MetOffice App - Heathrow.

Friday: 37C
Saturday: 37C
Sunday: 36C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 36C
Wednesday: 36C
Thursday: 33C

Unbelievable. Never seen anything like it. Astonishing and frightening in equal measure!

[Mark wheeler]

6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

MetOffice App - Heathrow.

Friday: 37C
Saturday: 37C
Sunday: 36C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 36C
Wednesday: 36C
Thursday: 33C

Cool Outlier ?

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

4 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

MetOffice App - Heathrow.

Friday: 37C
Saturday: 37C
Sunday: 36C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 36C
Wednesday: 36C
Thursday: 33C

 

5 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

MetOffice App - Heathrow.

Friday: 37C
Saturday: 37C
Sunday: 36C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 36C
Wednesday: 36C
Thursday: 33C

I really hate living in Manchester!!! What a waste of a good heatwave when its not widespread.  It will be 17 odd years before the next one. 

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, clark3r said:

South East 

Thats just crazy and considering its the gfs you can add another 3 or 4 degrees on top!!could be looking at mid to high thirties for the next week?

[Don]

I’m seriously thinking about moving to Scotland.  I work remotely, so it is feasible.  I’m simply not prepared to put up with this kind of heat for the rest of my life if it’s going to become frequent (which is likely!).

[qwertyK]

Still a while til next week and met is overestimating those temps.

[Don]

7 minutes ago, Steel City Skies said:

Unbelievable. Never seen anything like it. Astonishing and frightening in equal measure!

Given how the temps are often underestimated, I think it will be time to say goodbye to last year’s all time record!  I’m rather horrified!

Edited August 6, 2020 by Don

[qwertyK]

1 minute ago, Don said:

Given how the temps are often underestimated, I think it will be time to say goodbye to last year’s all time record!  I think this is horrifying.

If it is beaten I can't see it by being much. Winds will be from the north or east not the south after Friday and cloud coverage too.

[MattStoke]

2 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Still a while til next week and met is overestimating those temps.

More often than not, temperatures are revised upwards nearer the time. It’s not overestimated if it’s what the computer model data is saying.

[matt111]

2 minutes ago, Don said:

Given how the temps are often underestimated, I think it will be time to say goodbye to last year’s all time record!  I think this is horrifying.

I wonder how close they will be now that Heathrow is being updated with human input. 

[Djdazzle]

8 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

Still a while til next week and met is overestimating those temps.

And your evidence for that is? ARPEGE is showing 37 for Monday.

Edited August 6, 2020 by Djdazzle

[Don]

3 minutes ago, matt111 said:

I wonder how close they will be now that Heathrow is being updated with human input. 

Wasn’t aware of that?  Interesting.

[danm]

24 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

MetOffice App - Heathrow.

Friday: 37C
Saturday: 37C
Sunday: 36C
Monday: 36C
Tuesday: 36C
Wednesday: 36C
Thursday: 33C

I am contemplating a portable A/C unit, at least for my one year olds bedroom. It’s going to be insanely hot down here.

[Djdazzle]

3 minutes ago, Don said:

Wasn’t aware of that?  Interesting.

A few of the main sites are: Northolt and Kew too.

[Djdazzle]

1 minute ago, danm said:

I am contemplating a portable A/C unit, at least for my one year olds bedroom. It’s going to be insanely hot down here.

Rising humidity too. I feel for your little one.

[MattStoke]

Some of the Met Office automated forecasts do have some human input to make adjustments based on known model bias and numerous factors such as cloud cover suppressing temperatures.

[CheesepuffScott]

So we did squeeze 30°C

[kold weather]

25 minutes ago, qwertyK said:

If it is beaten I can't see it by being much. Winds will be from the north or east not the south after Friday and cloud coverage too.

Worth noting that winds a little above the surface level are still very clearly originated from the south. This is Monday and note in the SE where the wind barbs are coming from...France:

In essence, the flow is almost non-existant past Saturday, an air particle reaching Brighton at 7am in the morning won't get to London till midnight, so its a very stagnant pattern and any heat won't get washed away even if there is a temporary surface bends towards the ENE for 6-12hrs.

So in the end the heat DID outperform models today. That 30.1c is 3C higher than the GFS 06z was predicting for a max just 6hrs later. Something to think about...

So- Thursday started the trend of probably 7 days above 30c.

Edited August 6, 2020 by kold weather