North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

[damianslaw]

Lots of uncertainty as last evening where any snow may fall. All dependent on position of the trough feature which at present is unknown. Intensity of precipitation another factor.

Then we have another possible snow event Wednesday, this time from a developing shortwave feature to our NW, where it tracks very uncertain.

Some places could strike lucky three times in a row, others zero times..

Edited December 28, 2020 by damianslaw

[Chris.R]

-0.2°C here now has risen a bit in the last hour. Cloud must’ve come west.

[Kasim Awan]

47 minutes ago, Backtrack said:

I don’t feel as though marginality is an issue tonight. Temps and dew points are below freezing here now, uppers look ok and the PPN is coming from the east, meaning no westerly modification or warm sector. 
 

I’m thinking if you get the PPN, you’re seeing snow away from the slightly milder immediate coastline...

Imo, This scenario you describe i.e. no marginality will most likely be the case over 100m inland, or if below 100m early on in the event & in the main precip area.

The marginality stems from a slight inversion tomorrow morning, on the back side of the precip which is associated with slightly higher thetaE values. This inversion & the slightly warmer layer aloft means temps/dp @ 0 will support rain / pellets. See the pics here, temps at freezing 0C isotherm up at 600m where dew points probs rise up above 0. The lighter precip will not be able to erode / negate this, so western fringes may see more a wintry mix this might push further south temporarily.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Chris.R said:

-0.2°C here now has risen a bit in the last hour. Cloud must’ve come west.

It has been grey, damp and miserable here all day. What little snow we did have last night melted pretty swiftly. Top temp 1.6C

[Geordiesnow]

8 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

-0.2°C here now has risen a bit in the last hour. Cloud must’ve come west.

Little bit of high cloud here but clear skies otherwise, any high cloud will be from the PPN in the Irish sea but that should clear later on. I dont think temperatures will drop that low tonight regardless as the uppers are not all that cold.

Let's crave for a PROPER cold period of weather and not this marginal stuff. I'm still not seeing much signs in the models of this happening unfortunately.

[Gary2701]

0.6c so temp has gone up by 0.2c

[SP1986]

Temperature has also risen here to +1.1C. I'm sure it'll fluctuate during the night. The dewpoint is interestingly above 0C which I didn't think it would be at 0.5C 

We will see how temperatures respond later. Met-Office going for a rise in temperatures to 3C by 6am.. well we will see about that.

[Spurry]

My sensor is still reading -2.6c,I know it's not official conditions but believe me everything is frozen over and is not thawing

[Frost HoIIow]

18 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Little bit of high cloud here but clear skies otherwise, any high cloud will be from the PPN in the Irish sea but that should clear later on. I dont think temperatures will drop that low tonight regardless as the uppers are not all that cold.

Let's crave for a PROPER cold period of weather and not this marginal stuff. I'm still not seeing much signs in the models of this happening unfortunately.

It's true that right now a proper beast from the east isn't happening yet or knee deep snow but historically speaking these events aren't easy to come by even during the 60s,70s & 80s..... This country has never had a continental climate. Or gets nor'easters like New York.

To the here & now we've got consistently low single figure max temps progged in a lot of places inland. Some may have a few ice days, 850 temps aren't everything at this time of year given low solar input hence why max temps are pretty low with likely home grown cold. All in all it's good going if you ask most "coldies" on this forum. And like I said a few days back get the cold in and snow chances will crop up at short notice. This is now happening. I'd rather have all this now instead of chasing it in March when it's a bit late after a winter of mild rubbish. 

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Frost HoIIow said:

It's true that right now a proper beast from the east isn't happening yet or knee deep snow but historically speaking these events aren't easy to come by even during the 60s,70s & 80s..... This country has never had a continental climate. Or gets nor'easters like New York.

To the here & now we've got consistently low single figure max temps progged in a lot of places inland. Some may have a few ice days, 850 temps aren't everything at this time of year given low solar input hence why max temps are pretty low with likely home grown cold. All in all it's good going if you ask most "coldies" on this forum. And like I said a few days back get the cold in and snow chances will crop up at short notice. This is now happening. I'd rather have all this now instead of chasing it in March when it's a bit late after a winter of mild rubbish. 

It's not about having deep cold necessarily, it's about having more margin for error. Uppers of -4 to -6 is no different than what we see with a polar westerly. We need uppers of -8 towards -10 to class it as proper cold.

Trust me if those easterlies come off, there will be disappointment for most, our only hope for snow is in a very slack set up like we have now but even then its transient at best and very hit and miss.

Oh and given the set ups on offer, it feels like we are being robbed here in terms of cold, I mean I could accept it if it was the end of November perhaps but not at this time of year. We may go through all this period without the -10hpa touching the UK and that would be very poor indeed.

[Day 10]

6 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

It's true that right now a proper beast from the east isn't happening yet or knee deep snow but historically speaking these events aren't easy to come by even during the 60s,70s & 80s..... This country has never had a continental climate. Or gets nor'easters like New York.

To the here & now we've got consistently low single figure max temps progged in a lot of places inland. Some may have a few ice days, 850 temps aren't everything at this time of year given low solar input hence why max temps are pretty low with likely home grown cold. All in all it's good going if you ask most "coldies" on this forum. And like I said a few days back get the cold in and snow chances will crop up at short notice. This is now happening. I'd rather have all this now instead of chasing it in March when it's a bit late after a winter of mild rubbish. 

Couldn't agree more mate. 

[Day 10]

58 minutes ago, Rush2112 said:

Wizard Inn, literally an 8 minute drive away from me, Macclesfield had a dusting, which turned to slush soon after, certainly very marginal this morning.

The Wizard Inn, what a great name for a pub! 

[SP1986]

2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

The Wizard Inn, what a great name for a pub! 

We've got the Three Bellends in New Brighton though

[Day 10]

Just now, SP1986 said:

We've got the Three Bellends in New Brighton though

Haha true. 

[Methuselah]

2 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

We've got the Three Bellends in New Brighton though

That's nothing... Westminster has 650!

[Day 10]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

That's nothing... Westminster has 650!

[Frost HoIIow]

2 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

It's not about having deep cold necessarily, it's about having more margin for error. Uppers of -4 to -6 is no different than what we see with a polar westerly. We need uppers of -8 towards -10 to class it as proper cold.

Trust me if those easterlies come off, there will be disappointment for most, our only hope for snow is in a very slack set up like we have now but even then its transient at best and very hit and miss.

Oh and given the set ups on offer, it feels like we are being robbed here in terms of cold, I mean I could accept it if it was the end of November perhaps but not at this time of year. We may go through all this period without the -10hpa touching the UK and that would be very poor indeed.

Could, might, maybe. You said the other day it looked very dry with little to no snow for the region. Yet today some places got a good 5 inches this morning. Places that often miss out on snow for a few years.

Fine if you are glass half empty kind of person but the outlook really isn't that terrible. And we're not being "robbed of cold". So I'm not sure what you are looking for but day upon day of sub zero max temps isn't going to happen unless it's a spell like Jan or Dec 2010. This is the UK. We grab what we can, transient or not.

[Spurry]

26 minutes ago, SP1986 said:

We've got the Three Bellends in New Brighton though

I would like to go into a pub called 'The Wizards Sleeve'

[Geordiesnow]

48 minutes ago, Frost HoIIow said:

Could, might, maybe. You said the other day it looked very dry with little to no snow for the region. Yet today some places got a good 5 inches this morning. Places that often miss out on snow for a few years.

Fine if you are glass half empty kind of person but the outlook really isn't that terrible. And we're not being "robbed of cold". So I'm not sure what you are looking for but day upon day of sub zero max temps isn't going to happen unless it's a spell like Jan or Dec 2010. This is the UK. We grab what we can, transient or not.

I've always maintained the best snowfall chance was going to be last night but it was marginal for those at lower levels and so it proven in some cases. As soon as the winds increase, the lack of cold uppers will come into play. As it happens as it often does, the forecast changes slightly but again snowfall is likely to be transient in nature and quite hit and miss. 

I just think the synotopics flatter to decieve, if we got this slack low pressure set up but with - 6 uppers, that should be cold enough but with - 3 to - 4 uppers, it's more touch and go. 

I just hope eventually if we did get rises towards Greenland, colder air can flood down.

[Deep Snow please]

So much for a dry week. 

 

[Geordiesnow]

12 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

So much for a dry week. 

 

I don't tend to take the ICON too seriously but sometimes the more innocent looking charts can be the more snowy charts. 

A few days ago, the models did not really picked up features like tonight's possible event so you have to report on what they are saying at the time. 

A note on 925hpa temperature, what are they forecast to be around our region because a member posted a chart which shows Scotland and the far north of England it shows why some places are seeing rain despite temperatures at zero as they were hovering above the freezing point yet it looked a mixed picture as other areas has the 925hpa temperature at freezing or just below. I just feel if the 925hpa temperature is above freezing for some then lower levels will only see rain(probably not even sleet) whilst any areas which is above the 925hpa level(in height NOT temperature) should see snow hence the Met Office forecast. 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Geordiesnow

[Kasim Awan]

Euro4 18z closest to the mark right now. Takes the precip centre down the M62.

[Spah1]

Looks like going under Chorley again. 2 days in a row !!

[itsnowjoke]

Doesn’t feel as cold now as it did 

[Borei]

Cloudy and -0.3c.

Still a covering of snow to all levels locally (noting that the valley floor locally is about 130m).