North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards

[Backtrack]

Just now, Chris.R said:

Not much sign of any snow left now except a little bit on the bins. Only 1.9°C though. It’s a shame it had such trouble sticking as it was very heavy with big flakes for quite awhile. Wondering what to do about tonight don’t want to do another all nighter.

Yeah same here. Runcorn had way more than Widnes. I think tonight offers a lot less potential, it’s coming from the east, and we know the Pennines enjoy eating it all

[damianslaw]

Based on Met Office 7 day outlook, a running mean of 0.7 degrees is on the cards for here. That is a cold return, last time had such consistent cold was late February / early March 2018 and this is from a set up with not particularly cold air aloft. The time of year is helping to inhibit the effects of the sun. 

Tonight looks interesting, probably southern Pennine regions will do best, but NE flows can produce the goods to places further west, all depends on where shower activity hits and exact alignment. I'm not expecting much here, need the flow to be more of a ENE, and the Pennines will most likely gobble them up, but you never know.

Edited December 28, 2020 by damianslaw

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

i am surprised it is still here to be honest although it is still cold out.

[Slidergate '17]

Lying Snow at Ashton-on-Mersey

[Deep Snow please]

What result would leave you genuinely satisfied from a snow event, I'm finding it becomes more and more the more snow I see.

 

5cm from an afternoon of moderate to heavy snow is certainly a good event to start the winter off with, although it's already beginning to thaw away quite significantly with patches of grass reappearing. But I can't help but feel I'll only be truly satisfied with a 30cm fall in 24 hours. Like there's some snow seeking part of me that will never be truly satisfied without biblical accumulations. 

[dodge]

I never get my hopes up but tonight's offering from the east seems to be gaining momentum on recent forecasts... BBC show it has mostly rain/sleet on eastern coasts but quickly turning to snow as it travels inland and over the hills.  Yes the Pennines & Peaks is the major obstacle in the way of the snowy advance but I'm more optimistic for my dusting tonight than I was last night.

...and another upturn for Wed/Thurs band of snow?  So the week ahead of dry weather appears to under increasing threat.

Edited December 28, 2020 by dodge

[jam2010]

4 minutes ago, dodge said:

I never get my hopes up but tonight's offering from the east seems to be gaining momentum on recent forecasts... BBC show it has mostly rain/sleet on eastern coasts but quickly turning to snow as it travels inland and over the hills.  Yes the Pennines & Peaks is the major obstacle in the way of the snowy advance but I'm more optimistic for my dusting tonight than I was last night.

I hope so, I stayed up last night as the band was travelling in my direction until it decided to pivot 10 miles from my location booo. It would be nice to see some lying snow, Pennines will probably suck it all up (I hope im wrong)

Edited December 28, 2020 by jam2010

[Frost HoIIow]

Great pictures today from more western members. Tonight looks interesting for us in the far east of the region. Might get our 2nd snow cover of the Winter, hopefully!

[Chris.R]

New Met text forecast out. I think they have a parrot writing them who can only say 2 words! Wint... .......

grrrrrr

[iand61]

Just been to Burnley and it’s amazing how frustratingly close we came to getting a covering from yesterday’s shower stream.

only a mile north and east of here is white, yes with height but the snow line heading down into Burnley is way lower than my own altitude so it looks like the showers somehow managed to pretty much skirt around here.

hopefully we get an invite to tonight’s snow party

[Mucka]

All eyes now turn to tomorrow morning and whether a narrow band of snow pushing in from E will hit us.

Some models have it N England others Midlands so anywhere in between but it looks like a narrow band so snowfall will be fairly localised.

Latest run is Icon 12z which has moved it further South from last run and hits the  Midlands missing N England altogether.

 

Barring surprises between then and New Year the next good chance for the region will be Thu/Fri with the chance of NY eve/Day snowfall coming from the NE.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Mucka

[iand61]

6 minutes ago, Mucka said:

All eyes now turn to tomorrow morning and whether a narrow band of snow pushing in from E will hit us.

Some models have it N England others Midlands so anywhere in between but it looks like a narrow band so snowfall will be fairly localised.

Latest run is Icon 12z which has moved it further South from last run and hits the  Midlands missing N England altogether.

 

Barring surprises between then and New Year the next good chance for the region will be Thu/Fri with the chance of NY eve/Day snowfall coming from the NE.

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it missed the northwest completely and hit the Midlands instead.

this seems to have occurred a lot over recent winters and is up there with the southerly tracking systems that always seem to fizzle out south of Manchester, something that looks likely to be happening again tomorrow.

[Geordiesnow]

2 hours ago, Chris.R said:

Not much sign of any snow left now except a little bit on the bins. Only 1.9°C though. It’s a shame it had such trouble sticking as it was very heavy with big flakes for quite awhile. Wondering what to do about tonight don’t want to do another all nighter.

Do the opposite tonight Chris because it's not likely any PPN will reach until the early hours of the morning. Going to be the usual will it won't it type of set up and its not worth staying up all night for. 

[Mucka]

11 minutes ago, iand61 said:

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it missed the northwest completely and hit the Midlands instead.

this seems to have occurred a lot over recent winters and is up there with the southerly tracking systems that always seem to fizzle out south of Manchester, something that looks likely to be happening again tomorrow.

The ones that come in from the SW are often damp squibs and fizzle for me as you say due to the shadow effect of the Pennines but snow coming from the NE can give good falls for my local depending on whether they hit of course..

This will be dependent on where the ridge topples as the shortwave providing the snow will be running along its S flank from the NE/E to SW/W and since we are talking fine margins of 100 miles it could honestly land anywhere between Leeds and Birmingham inclusive from S to N

More models have had a but further S and a Midlands event so that is currently fav but let's see how the other 12z Hi Res models go as still enough time for corrections N/S of a hundred miles or so

GFS 12z low res still on target at least

SW over N wales by then

Edited December 28, 2020 by Mucka

[The Northern Ramper]

6 minutes ago, iand61 said:

I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it missed the northwest completely and hit the Midlands instead.

this seems to have occurred a lot over recent winters and is up there with the southerly tracking systems that always seem to fizzle out south of Manchester, something that looks likely to be happening again tomorrow.

Only snow events, rain events have no problem.

[SP1986]

It's been chilly today.. mostly cloudy though with a high of 3C .. this represents the lowest maximum this year. Overnight partly cloudy so temperature may temporarily fall below 0C before rising later in the night when cloud moves in. Whether that precipitation gets this far west is unknown but I reckon at least southern parts of Greater Manchester and east Cheshire may get some snow towards dawn 

[dodge]

Met still has us in the firing line - might be a sleety mix to lower levels though.

 

[Kasim Awan]

 

Looking promising tonight for quite a few, Pennine areas above 100m 2-10cm. However, there is a lot of uncertainty re positioning as reflected in the large Met Office warning. Possible tracks range from South Derbyshire to North Yorkshire, & the GFS now splitting the feature sending some energy through both of these areas.

So the Jury is out. However, I have my bias' atm. A track covering Yorks, Lancs, Manchester area and nearby. Sway north towards Durham & south towards N.Mids poss I'm favouring a slightly north middle ground for a few reasons. In the area hit expect 60% of the land cover to see snow. This would take the precip through Bradford into Skipton area. On the east coast & up to 30 miles inland <200m there will be an element of marginality. Inland, the Pennines & over to the north west coast may see snow down to sea level temporarily so a patchy 1-4cm at lower levels near the central path & 3-9cm widely on high ground seems reasonable. Again as discussed Bradford path favoured with this. 

Marginal below 200m altitude will develop behind the main heavy precip, this means later a sleety mix is very possible, however there will still be some opportunity. Again this has room for sway south if the trough throws more energy towards the central Midlands. A good chance for a fair few!

Edited December 28, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Chris.R]

Temp falling quickly 0.4°C

[iand61]

44 minutes ago, Mucka said:

The ones that come in from the SW are often damp squibs and fizzle for me as you say due to the shadow effect of the Pennines but snow coming from the NE can give good falls for my local depending on whether they hit of course..

This will be dependent on where the ridge topples as SW providing the snow will be running along its S flank from the NE/E to SW/W and since we are talking fine margins of 100 miles it could honestly land anywhere between Leeds and Birmingham inclusive from S to N

More models have had a but further S and a Midlands event so that is currently fav but let's see how the other 12z Hi Res models go as still enough time for corrections N/S of a hundred miles or so

Isn’t it amazing how US storms can dump huge volumes of snow across thousands of square miles but in this country someone’s gain is always another poor sods loss and we are continually stuck with changes of a few miles making all the difference.

oh to have a true nationwide snowstorm although it would still only be tiny compared to an American one.

[Rain Lady]

Wisps of cloud now coming over fells from NNE.  Very light breeze.  Pressure rising.  Temp 1.0C.

[Chris.R]

An air frost has just begun in Crosby and just about to start one here also.

[Day 10]

15 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

An air frost has just begun in Crosby and just about to start one here also.

Much colder out today than yesterday so a better starting point already, I'd say Merseyside has about a 30% of snow around 6-8am.

[Deep Snow please]

Who's been at the crayons? 

Edited December 28, 2020 by Deep Snow please

[itsnowjoke]

Temp 1c here