Model output discussion - into July 2020

[Don]

1 hour ago, Zak M said:

Too far out, I know... but I wouldn't mind some warmth on my birthday 

   

Well, you never know......

[Frosty.]

Looking at the 0z output I think mixed bag sums it up which means some unsettled / less unsettled spells (broad brush approach)..taking the ECM 0z op as an example, yes it’s mixed but at least it gradually warms up during the second half of the week into the following week. Glancing through the GEFS 0z there are a few nice signs towards the end of July but I can’t sugar coat the outlook, it’s a mix of troughs and ridges but perhaps high pressure could find a way of bringing a more sustained settled summery spell at some point..I’m certainly not giving up on summer 2020 with around six weeks of it left!

Edited July 19, 2020 by JON SNOW

[mushymanrob]

A picture paints a thousand words

 

[Methuselah]

Aye, karl; there's nowt too earth-shatteringly bad in this morning's GFS 00Z; 'mixed' conditions continuing, for the foreseeable:

    

    

    

    

GEFS temp ens look reasonable:

    

NH profiles:

    

    

Could be worse... could be better?

[Ice Day]

Not much to report on the morning runs, just a continuation of recent output.  Interestingly (!) the ECM morning run shows very little scatter out to day 10 with regard to the 850's, so no plumes being seen at this time, but nothing awful either.

Hurricane season has yet to get going so nothing significant heading into the Atlantic at this point.  All a bit boring really! 

Edited July 19, 2020 by Ice Day

[MATTWOLVES 3]

2 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

A picture paints a thousand words

 

That's poor Rob.. Not much joy on the extended ECM mean also.. Around 1011mb pressure for the North, and 1014mb For the far South out to day 14.im still hoping for an improvement come the end of the 1st week though, but be warned I've been hoping since June..

[bluearmy]

day 10 eps mean ....... uncertain how this placement of the upper ridge leaves us but some of the scenarios aren’t great for summer conditions ...... how the Azores ridge interacts with the feature will dictate our conditions  

[Frosty.]

43 minutes ago, MATT said:

That's poor Rob.. Not much joy on the extended ECM mean also.. Around 1011mb pressure for the North, and 1014mb For the far South out to day 14.im still hoping for an improvement come the end of the 1st week though, but be warned I've been hoping since June..

Just seen the Gfs 6z op mate, no real change, it’s a mixture of troughs and ridges which is about par for the course in a u k summer, not sure what some are expecting..heatwaves galore?..hmm, this isn’t 1975, 1976..1995..this is 2020..deal with it!!!!!!!

Edited July 19, 2020 by JON SNOW

[MKN]

38 minutes ago, JON SNOW said:

Just seen the Gfs 6z op mate, no real change, it’s a mixture of troughs and ridges which is about par for the course in a u k summer, not sure what some are expecting..heatwaves galore?..hmm, this isn’t 1975, 1976..1995..this is 2020..deal with it!!!!!!!

You say that but recent 20 summers have provided something like 10 of the hottest summers. Even last year despite no long spells of hot weather provided a couple of very very hot days. This year's poor so far compared to recent years. There is a distinct lack of high-pressure establishing itself even temporarily over France/germany. 

[Frosty.]

3 minutes ago, MKN said:

You say that but recent 20 summers have provided something like 10 of the hottest summers. Even last year despite no long spells of hot weather provided a couple of very very hot days. This year's poor so far compared to recent years. There is a distinct lack of high-pressure establishing itself even temporarily over France/germany. 

Fair point but this is typical u k summer showing on the models..I think expectations are way too high as usual?..let’s not forget how crap u k winters are in recent years.,why should summers be so much better..hmm?..anyhoo, the 0z & 6z output look mixed..but..that doesn’t preclude a marked improvement in august..Ja...a bit of German in there, Ja..enjoy the rest of summer!!!..I have German relatives but that’s beside the point..stop moaning is my main point!
 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

1 hour ago, JON SNOW said:

Just seen the Gfs 6z op mate, no real change, it’s a mixture of troughs and ridges which is about par for the course in a u k summer, not sure what some are expecting..heatwaves galore?..hmm, this isn’t 1975, 1976..1995..this is 2020..deal with it!!!!!!!

If you would have gone on the met office contingency planners forecast then this summer so far is below average.. You say troughs and ridges, but these ridges are very weak affairs... Meaning not the best of conditions when they build.. We have not had a sustained build of pressure since the 4 day Heatwave last month! And its pretty pointless to keep saying we are used to poor Winters... So deal with it! In a warming world the cold pools get less extensive, but the Heat builds significantly! You only have to take a look at the conditions in Eastern Russia to see what's going on currently. 

The 6Z mean shows the same scenario moving forward... Troughs and weak ridges.. I'm still hopeful of an improvement further into August.. But this would most probably be the last chance saloon! If this fails to materialise Summer 2020 could well be one that is quickly forgotten. 

Edit... Worth noting if you take a look at the average temperatures in Siberia from January through till June, they are running roughly 5C above average.. That's immense. 

Edited July 19, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Frosty.]

45 minutes ago, MATT said:

Edit... Worth noting if you take a look at the average temperatures in Siberia from January through till June, they are running roughly 5C above average.. That's immense. 

Agreed mate, IMMENSE is the right word, I read about that to!...Ja it’s a mixed bag from the 0z & 6z...fingers crossed the 12z shows something better!

Das ist immens....Ja.,Ja..Ja.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited July 19, 2020 by JON SNOW

[B87]

2 hours ago, JON SNOW said:

Just seen the Gfs 6z op mate, no real change, it’s a mixture of troughs and ridges which is about par for the course in a u k summer, not sure what some are expecting..heatwaves galore?..hmm, this isn’t 1975, 1976..1995..this is 2020..deal with it!!!!!!!

A typical UK summer also has at least a couple of heatwaves with 30c+ potential. This summer has been worse than 2015 for heatwaves.

[mushymanrob]

3 hours ago, MATT said:

That's poor Rob.. Not much joy on the extended ECM mean also.. Around 1011mb pressure for the North, and 1014mb For the far South out to day 14.im still hoping for an improvement come the end of the 1st week though, but be warned I've been hoping since June..

Im watching the azores ridge, flatline contours often buckle. Im hoping theres ridging building off the azh. 

But that is straw clutching. So far this summer has been below par, and theres not much tangible sign to suggest a change. 

[Frosty.]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Im watching the azores ridge, flatline contours often buckle. Im hoping theres ridging building off the azh. 

But that is straw clutching. So far this summer has been below par, and theres not much tangible sign to suggest a change. 

Much as I would like to, I can’t disagree, this summer so far.. is pish!.. however the 0z & 6z show some, albeit small signs of hope so it’s not a dead loss.,going forward!

Edited July 19, 2020 by JON SNOW

[MATTWOLVES 3]

42 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Im watching the azores ridge, flatline contours often buckle. Im hoping theres ridging building off the azh. 

But that is straw clutching. So far this summer has been below par, and theres not much tangible sign to suggest a change. 

Perhaps we are looking to around Mid August before any signs of a more prolonged spell of settled Conditions.. Exter highlighting this but with low confidence, and they've been talking of such conditions since June tbh, but to little affect. But regardless of what happens there is always the possibility of a decent September.. Such as the uncertain times we live in, just about anything is possible. 

[Scorcher]

12 minutes ago, MATT said:

Perhaps we are looking to around Mid August before any signs of a more prolonged spell of settled Conditions.. Exter highlighting this but with low confidence, and they've been talking of such conditions since June tbh, but to little affect. But regardless of what happens there is always the possibility of a decent September.. Such as the uncertain times we live in, just about anything is possible. 

I think most have accepted now that any heat looks unlikely. It's a big shame as I'd much prefer to have heat now than in the 2nd half of August, while the days are still long and the sun high. A good September is a bonus but it certainly doesn't make up for a poor July and August- it just doesn't feel the same, and doesn't feel 'summery', particularly in the 2nd half of the month.

While I'm not moaning about it, I've accepted that we may be done for this summer- it's just one of those frustrating patterns that seems to be hell bent on denying us any decent summery weather. Up here we have been struggling to get even an average day all month in terms of warmth. Even July 2007 and 2012 had warmer days.

There certainly haven't been many Julys as poor as this that have led into a good August.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

50 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

I think most have accepted now that any heat looks unlikely. It's a big shame as I'd much prefer to have heat now than in the 2nd half of August, while the days are still long and the sun high. A good September is a bonus but it certainly doesn't make up for a poor July and August- it just doesn't feel the same, and doesn't feel 'summery', particularly in the 2nd half of the month.

While I'm not moaning about it, I've accepted that we may be done for this summer- it's just one of those frustrating patterns that seems to be hell bent on denying us any decent summery weather. Up here we have been struggling to get even an average day all month in terms of warmth. Even July 2007 and 2012 had warmer days.

There certainly haven't been many Julys as poor as this that have led into a good August.

First thing Scorcher is even with average Temps, that sun is still as strong, absolutely gorgeous here today..and let's not forget some decent conditions through to midweek.. But for me, due to AGW.. we no longer have a normal seasonal pattern.. Look at April and May.. High summer conditions. So for me these type of conditions could be just as likely in September and even October. I think it's irrelevant about a poor July leading into a poor August, take a look at 2018..fantastic summer went in to an average August! I think I'm correct in saying High Pressure in September can lead to fab Summer like conditions due to the Sun being lower in the sky and perhaps meaning less cyclonic conditions due to this.. Correct me if I'm wrong though. 

I agree a long standing Heatwave will become less likely the further we move on, but for sure, I feel we can still get some cracking conditions through the later period.. We can also get some crap Expect the unexpected and you will never end up disappointed mate. In the shorter term some nice conditions for the next few days.. If it all goes wrong so be it... Soon be next Summer!! There goes me wishing another year of my life away..

Icon becomes like a washing machine come next Weekend.. All over the place in other words. 

I've got a feeling UKMO is gonna also look a bit slack come next weekend... Some downpours and some drier spells. 

Yep.. Its still quite slack.. Could we nudge a ridge if the the run went on a few days.. My call would be for some settled conditions the following week, still a risk of some showery activity though, especially further W/NW. 

Edited July 19, 2020 by MATT☀️

[Zak M]

Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to the 12z GEM...

   

[Frosty.]

45 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Ladies and gentlemen, let me introduce you to the 12z GEM...

   

WOW Zak, all I can say is that’s a million times better than the 0z GEM!

[Mike Poole]

The 12z suite at T144 illustrate the amount of uncertainty:

That uncertainty has been there all summer to be honest, sunny nirvanas at T240 have rarely come to pass, and if do, short lived.  I think now we might have been kippered by decent seasonal forecasts at the start of summer, and background signals that have either failed to deliver (AAM) or have been good to start with but would have required reinforcement to be relevant now, there i am thinking of SST anomalies in the Atlantic.  Start of June, v now:

No help from SSTs here for summer remaining.  (But not looking a bad pattern for winter...).  One thing that could upset the rather boring two weeks of cloud and then some brief sunny intervals pattern (I’m in the south - before anyone mentions rain!!) is a tropical storm remnants coming our way,  a well placed shake up could rescue summer!!

Edited July 19, 2020 by Mike Poole
finished my post now!

[summer blizzard]

Ever suspicious when there's no comment on the Euro and it's clear why, Azores High in full retreat. GFS12z also binned the prior recoveries of the prior 48 hours.

[Scorcher]

The ECM is actually not that bad in reality though. It's at least better than what most of us have had in the month up to now. We might even reach 20C here again! 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

The op you could call a slight outlier towards day 10..both the mean and the op agree that its at least rather warm going on 850s..well under any wetter moments it wouldn't feel to good.. I say the op is an outlier regarding pressure by day 10,but it may be on to something! The extended mean out to day 14 is poor tbh... Its coming in around 1010-1012mb..Hopefully the weeklies will throw up something better on Monday regarding further ahead. 

[Guest]

Looks like a pleasant few days ahead now, although chilly overnight before a week of mid 30’s likely (whoops looks like I’ll been Cyprus from the end of the week) while here it’s just the same old pattern. At least we seem to have been able to put together a run of several decent days so some slightly better weather at times. 
 

I understand what people are saying about ‘you can’t expect heatwaves all the time‘ however summer to date has been poor for many regions, no doubts. However in a warming climate summers like this may only happen once of twice a decade with the 2012/07’s being even less frequent so I think as much as climate change is devastating I think expectations can be set that above average is the new average.