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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

Absolute pathetic levels of cold despite the block.

COLD.thumb.png.299d13ac86de4431964eb5f636db806d.png

We really are going to struggle to see anything noteworthy. The cold just isn't there.

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Catacol
Catacol

For once a tendency to under amplify the pattern. I wonder how much of our current "surprise" (I'll admit to being a bit surprised at the winter positives of the current phase) is down to poor modelli

Polar Maritime
Polar Maritime

Some folk need to understand that this thread is to discuss the model outputs that be 6hr out or 2 weeks. Also if folk are looking for there 1st snowflake of the season using said models that's absolu

BlueHedgehog074
BlueHedgehog074

Secretly admit, that snowy ECMWF chart for Friday for the Midlands and South-East looked Winter-ful and has got me a little excited.  Even though it could quite easily not happen. Must remember now yo

Posted Images

Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)

I hope the pub run had a substantial meal with its alcohol, maybe a scotch egg.

Not a bad run though, glad to see the blocking signal is at least still there despite the messy run earlier on.

4DE25C21-80B4-4EF0-A727-B8E22C3CB2AE.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Arpege the realist/worthy model imo.. but as -again in nowcast scenarios

The pac- ridge that’s been foe(previous seasons).. looks lively for becoming friend..!!!

Yes i touched up on this the other day(+pna) that will force trough in eastern states and amplify ridge in the Atlantic,but is this the player,i am torn between Atlantic/Scurasian ridge at the moment as is the NWP'S

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted
4 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Absolute pathetic levels of cold despite the block.

COLD.thumb.png.299d13ac86de4431964eb5f636db806d.png

We really are going to struggle to see anything noteworthy. The cold just isn't there.

As a very small Chinese man once said 

"Patience Daniel son" 

Cold wrap around coming at 306. 

 

 

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

No point going into too much detail but the repositioning of heights through the 2nd half of the pub run would certainly put us in a better position. Core heights between Scotland and Norway and finally a chance for cold air to move west/south west through Europe thanks to that developing trough over Western Russia.

image.thumb.png.ac6930640116e56083f49b825de9c03b.png
 

Back in the earlier ranges, a pretty poor interaction between some of those areas of low pressure allow temperatures to recover somewhat after the coming weekend. This hasn’t changed occurred on the other runs tonight though, which keep the 850s below 0c throughout.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: West Yorks
  • Location: West Yorks
Posted
5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Absolute pathetic levels of cold despite the block.

COLD.thumb.png.299d13ac86de4431964eb5f636db806d.png

We really are going to struggle to see anything noteworthy. The cold just isn't there.

Do you really believe it though? Firstly it is the gfs 18z pub run. Secondly we all know how the models can underestimate the upper temps in these situations until much closer to the time. Thirdly........ Well, as already said, it is the gfs pub run so it won't be anything like what it is showing anyway lol. 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

The elements are still there for some type of blocking but will we benefit from this is another question?

but the 18z is giving me palpitations to say the least,in a good way.

goodnight all.

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
Posted

The 18z has had a blocked pattern throughout for the last 4 nights, it then gets dropped for the 00z, 06z, 12z and then it re-appears again on the 18z. Starting to wonder if there's an issue with that run, maybe lack of data? 

booferking Maestro

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

The 18z has had a blocked pattern throughout for the last 4 nights, it then gets dropped for the 00z, 06z, 12z and then it re-appears again on the 18z. Starting to wonder if there's an issue with that run, maybe lack of data? 

Today's 6z was blocked?

gfsnh-0-342.png

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

The 18z has had a blocked pattern throughout for the last 4 nights, it then gets dropped for the 00z, 06z, 12z and then it re-appears again on the 18z. Starting to wonder if there's an issue with that run, maybe lack of data? 

I’ve noticed that the 6:00 runs have tended to favour blocking recently only to revert on the 12:00 runs. The back end of the 00z today was also blocked though. But even if there is an issue with the GFS, the ECMWF/GEM runs have mostly been blocked recently as well.

97EA3B31-A1CF-46BA-B106-F272D08DA4B1.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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BlueHedgehog074 Maestro

BlueHedgehog074

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
Posted

@booferking Was gonna say, the GFS 06Z indeed had quite a lot of great blocking around, especially that build of heights over our North-West towards Iceland and into Greenland. Hopefully the GFS will work up a big headache from all the drinks it has had with the NAVGEM tonight at the pub, that it will get repeated again on tomorrow’s 06Z run...

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
46 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Absolute pathetic levels of cold despite the block.

COLD.thumb.png.299d13ac86de4431964eb5f636db806d.png

We really are going to struggle to see anything noteworthy. The cold just isn't there.

Yep charts are more like October in terms of upper air temperatures but no doubt climate change has some influence in this, I doubt you will see such a lack of cold back in the 70s under similar conditions. 

So cold and at times wet it is with a chance of snow in some lucky spots but very transient in nature. I think the more noteworthy feature will be the wind, quite a nasty low really. Don't think it be much fun on the east coast this weekend. 

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
Posted

Regardless of FI the uppers have trended colder in short term. Every little helps when it is marginal.

A067139B-65A5-4C62-B45A-DD925B6F0846.thumb.jpeg.63f595e33e0aba4b9d776356bdfb7421.jpeg>2DDC5D89-27C9-4CD8-B8E1-4E7295FF476B.thumb.jpeg.76187e4bdd27f81a19f9283ab0e1d053.jpeg

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted

The end stages of the 0z GFS are synoptically stunning. Nothing marginal about those uppers heading towards us.

The dream.

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Rayth Rising Star

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted
5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

The end stages of the 0z GFS are synoptically stunning. Nothing marginal about those uppers heading towards us.

The dream.

Indeed , 

And when it theoretically should be rampant , the vortex is marmalized

 

 

76D5D945-0EAC-4A12-9CC7-D94A604B1847.jpeg

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Raythan said:

Indeed , 

And when it theoretically should be rampant , the vortex is marmalized

 

 

76D5D945-0EAC-4A12-9CC7-D94A604B1847.jpeg

Yes, and after such a crap year, it would be amazing to set up a winter wonderland just in time for Christmas.

As BA would say, it's all within the envelope of what could develop over the next couple of weeks.

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Rayth Rising Star

Rayth

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
Posted
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, and after such a crap year, it would be amazing to set up a winter wonderland just in time for Christmas.

As BA would say, it's all within the envelope of what could develop over the next couple of weeks.

Not a bad perch to be sitting on , in only the second day of meteorological winter eh crewe  

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, and after such a crap year, it would be amazing to set up a winter wonderland just in time for Christmas.

As BA would say, it's all within the envelope of what could develop over the next couple of weeks.

As long as there are lots of variations of a theme it will have my interest.

3B1F6E29-0874-42BB-BDB3-5208758B96D7.png

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moorlander Enthusiast

moorlander

Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
Posted

Keep building that cold

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted

Excellent GFS 00Z ...

UKMO I'm not sure about at all at 144...

image.thumb.png.4d75e7e96f6e1181161446fbd755c4d8.png

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
12 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent GFS 00Z ...

UKMO I'm not sure about at all at 144...

image.thumb.png.4d75e7e96f6e1181161446fbd755c4d8.png

It looks ok but at t144 it’ll change no doubt. 

E471990B-D5E7-418D-A965-EB4BC3A87B73.jpeg

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Penrith Snow Experienced

Penrith Snow

Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria 530 feet asl
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria 530 feet asl
Posted
6 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Yep charts are more like October in terms of upper air temperatures but no doubt climate change has some influence in this, I doubt you will see such a lack of cold back in the 70s under similar conditions. 

So cold and at times wet it is with a chance of snow in some lucky spots but very transient in nature. I think the more noteworthy feature will be the wind, quite a nasty low really. Don't think it be much fun on the east coast this weekend. 

Hmmm, not sure whether its climate change to account for the poor uppers and lack of cold, it is only early December and I remember many like cool rather than cold easterlies in the past, Feb 1972 was an easterly month but apart from the first few days was wet rather than white. In the early days on Internet weather a early December easterly in 2002 brought much excitement on TWO but turned into a damp quib due to poor uppers.

February 2005 was similar although the colder time of year meant transient snow for many but it was disappointing.

The problem is the origins of this coming easterlyhad southerlies over Europe, had their been a northerly last week things would be different.

Andy

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Weather-history Maestro

Weather-history

Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
Posted (edited)

29cms of snow for London on this GFS ensemble Friday morning

GFSP30EU00_54_1.png

These two only give a mere 19cms of snow for London

GFSP14EU00_54_1.png

GFSP02EU00_54_1.png

And this just gives a tiny dusting of snow......... 15cms with this ensemble

GFSP01EU00_66_1.png

Edited by Weather-history
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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted

Morning

Lovely cold seasonal ECM all the way & beyond past day 10 today > hints of a continental flow at the end

Oh &.... ECM High Res T54

55424D0F-04C5-48B1-810C-6CCA54743C87.thumb.jpeg.3c7555ac378b8859ee0c338f0082d320.jpeg2745EA67-2383-4452-9CD8-FB23B5B76224.thumb.jpeg.d077c65f2950d9d0d5ee5e0e6736efcc.jpeg

 

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Morning

Lovely cold seasonal ECM all the way & beyond past day 10 today > hints of a continental flow at the end

Oh &.... ECM High Res T54

55424D0F-04C5-48B1-810C-6CCA54743C87.thumb.jpeg.3c7555ac378b8859ee0c338f0082d320.jpeg2745EA67-2383-4452-9CD8-FB23B5B76224.thumb.jpeg.d077c65f2950d9d0d5ee5e0e6736efcc.jpeg

 

I was wondering whether the possible snow for Friday had evaporated or not, it'd be nice to see at least falling snow after last years debacle.

Although it shows something for the south east, these are always 'now cast' situations, so pinches of salt are needed, but it's good to see :-)

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