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Model output discussion - Winter has arrived


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Whats happening with these gfs ensembles at just 4 days out!!not only have they gone colder for the end of this week which means a higher chance of snow now but between the 3rd and the 5th there is still a large scatter and some bring in even colder 850s of -7 or -8 for the end of this week!! They flatline to -5 for the majority of the run!❄

Screenshot_20201201-193156_Chrome.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

It's going to be what it's going to be, but what is it going to be? 

Actually glad I've only had time to lurk, seems we're all 100% committed to the perfect blizzard!

Looking at the reliable (allegedly) there are differences, next week seems a long way away, so let's get Friday over first.

Some great posts over the last couple of days, some very informative posts.

Hard to look at the models at the moment without an eye towards the strat and PV...

In any case I suspect lampposts are going to be more informative and accurate than snow depth charts.

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UN72-21.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
17 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM is excellent.  The complaints going on and the cold spell has collapsed posts are bizarre.  It’s 1/12/20....looking nice to me

 

BFTP

Yes Bftp. A rather nice set up going into mid December that. 

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29 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Whats happening with these gfs ensembles at just 4 days out!!not only have they gone colder for the end of this week which means a higher chance of snow now but between the 3rd and the 5th there is still a large scatter and some bring in even colder 850s of -7 or -8 for the end of this week!! They flatline to -5 for the majority of the run!❄

Screenshot_20201201-193156_Chrome.jpg

It's why we need to take any tentative uptick of the mean 850s in the GEFS FI with a pinch of salt. The short term has trended a tad chiller in that regard and the mid-term onwards is flipping around like you would expect in such a pattern. For now we take the chill in the air and any snow that may come our way this week while keeping our fingers crossed that the month continues in a similar vein  

Edited by Steel City Skies
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

We are not far away(forecast) from going into neg values now especially the AO,this should slow down the trop pv or become reversal with high latitude blocking,where these high latitude blocks form or occur is anyone's guess but there are some outrageous charts showing up in the gefs ens 

nao.sprd2.thumb.gif.da95656bb971a510e50be0f7cf322e5f.gifao.sprd2.thumb.gif.52063c81c92cb41af4a545f036688890.gif

the NAO goes into neg too with more of a buckle in the jet stream(meridional flow) as is what we are seeing happening now in the models,how long these neg values will persist is again unknown

in the more mediate time,an interesting week to ten days coming up weather wise and on the models

good luck everyone

 

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Posted
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
  • Location: Netherlands close to the coast
1 hour ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

ECM is excellent.  The complaints going on and the cold spell has collapsed posts are bizarre.  It’s 1/12/20....looking nice to me

 

BFTP

I would call them excellent, just seasonal temperatures, which after 6 years of scorching hot Decembers is sort of a welcome change I guess

 

eps_pluim_tt_06290.png

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Posted
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl
  • Location: Catchgate, Durham,705ft asl

Some eye catching Canadian temperature anomalies (850mb) for around midweek with yet more records set to tumble.

 

Also nice to have an interesting start to winter here in the UK for a change.

 

ECH100-48.thumb.png.9583b13a19706ba9c4e1714a92701a33.pnggfsna-15-48.thumb.png.2a21ac09b6aa426665becebf2944a7de.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Lol MATT you are a true entertainer,love your posts

and what could go wrong goes wrong on the trusty NAVGEM

navgemnh-0-180.thumb.png.a6a15eb3bb43da898543584398d31018.pngnavgemnh-1-180.thumb.png.b60db5399949ca39b9c2c2f84a3041cc.png

get out the barbies,i mean the bbq's

a trend setter or a dud?

we can't be too complacent by what the good models are showing and vice versa.

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Could be some back edge snow on this for the Cotswolds, Chilterns etc but looking fairly wet overall for most areas.

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ICON sticking with its guns somewhat - any precipitation exits into the north sea before circulating back round into the far northeast/northern Scotland, dissipating in the Atlantic. 

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Disappointing for most of England & Wales. 

Edited by Eskimo
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, Eskimo said:

Could be some back edge snow on this for the Cotswolds, Chilterns etc but looking fairly wet overall for most areas.

image.thumb.png.c4a0631b530f0b05f358c2eb066ceceb.png

ICON sticking with its guns somewhat - any precipitation exits into the north sea before circulating back round into northern Scotland, dissipating in the Atlantic. 

image.thumb.png.e913b5ffd000c5099e4a2deea30870b4.png

Disappointing for most of England & Wales. 

Same area on ecm and gfs more wintry!!!dont count it out just yet!!

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

observation that the back end of week two sees the euro low height anomoly drain away across the extended ens all three models ..... is this a new trend or an over reaction to something upstream ?  The eps clusters look like it may be the latter - tomorrow’s suites will reveal more 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

Better ecm op tonight...but I think it will take more than a nuclear explosion to get that Russian high to move (it never goes anywhere).

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

Not a bad ICON 18z out to t120. Would definitely feel cold in the slack flow and there’s a decent amount of amplification upstream as well.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Latest eps clusters show plenty of N 'ern blocking in our vicinity but as @Nick F says,there isn't much to shift this pattern at the moment with this trough parked over the UK.we want this trough to push further SE cleanly without other shortwaves phasing with it so that the high can build over the top and then retrogress west(this is a natural route because of lower heights in mainland Europe) then into the Atlantic and then up towards Greenland,this in turn would allow floodgates to open from the north,some of the gefs ens shows this route as you have probably viewed,a tall order i know but not impossible.

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
6 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Icon still going for snow  Thursday night into Friday   as the front wraps around down the spine of the country 

Gfs looking very good so far!no deepening low at 48 hours and even slacker!!!

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