Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Updated_Weather]

14 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Sorry, not model related but relevant I think. The BBC has been showing sleet for Friday for my part of the world (South Yorkshire) from Sunday until this morning. I've just checked the latest update and it's gone.....

Never rely on weather apps especially for snow.. Very unreliable and change every few hours!

[MattStoke]

36 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 18 from the 06z could be the jackpot 30cm run!

It wouldn't. The low resolution of those charts makes the odd bit of sleet/hill snow look like a widespread blizzards. It would be mostly rain to low levels. Look at East Anglia.

[Mapantz]

A couple of highlights from the UKV, while I'm on a break from putting the outdoor Christmas lights up: 

   

[mushymanrob]

26 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Sorry, not model related but relevant I think. The BBC has been showing sleet for Friday for my part of the world (South Yorkshire) from Sunday until this morning. I've just checked the latest update and it's gone.....

BBC this morning was showing rain for the East Midlands, the gfs also suggests more rain the snow away from higher ground. Dew points arent quite low enough across most of the uk (gfs 06z) plus the ground isnt cold enough to hold settling snow. 

Sorry, i think too many are holding on to very slim chances.

49 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

Interesting GFS 06z. Basically, a low pressure systems hang around over and above the British Isles from tomorrow all the way through to T+240 (12th Dec). 

 

Yep, as the NOAA charts have been suggesting now for several days.  It is no surprise that there are some very cold charts beginning to appear in FI, and IMHO are feasible or close to feasible with what the NOAA charts are predicting. 

Edited December 2, 2020 by mushymanrob

[winterof79]

26 minutes ago, Premier Neige said:

Sorry, not model related but relevant I think. The BBC has been showing sleet for Friday for my part of the world (South Yorkshire) from Sunday until this morning. I've just checked the latest update and it's gone.....

Regional sir

[sheikhy]

Was there not a 06z ecm update at one time!? If its available i wonder if it still shows the same as the 00z run?

[Radiating Dendrite]

Just now, sheikhy said:

Was there not a 06z ecm update at one time!? If its available i wonder if it still shows the same as the 00z run?

I believe this is only available to the boffins and was run only out to 180 hrs?

[ICE COLD]

Another wicked FI on the GFS 6z op . Been quite a few lately on the op runs . That would be an amazing way to start the run up to Christmas week . 

[Skullzrulerz]

51 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

PTB 18 from the 06z could be the jackpot 30cm run!

Is this for Friday?

[SMU]

So lets be honest if your of a cold persuation then this is the reason you login to see charts like this - even better to actually verify...

Not sure about anyone else but see this on the maps allows me to drift away & daydream a bit about years gone by & childhood memories of playing in the snow r hours & sledging etc...

 

06z 384 off the scale..

 

@MattStoke

You are wrong buddy - if such an intense area of PPN did form at those echoes of 10-15mm per hour then it will over ride all the negative marginal factors.

Ive been sat in the SE thread for 10 years & see random places like crawley get 7 inches of snow along a wave just because the PPN was red echoes on radar....

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

So good I posted it twice.  Cold Nirvana...now I’m worried 

 

BFTP

Edited December 2, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

Looking at the pressure charts only euro4 has the low for friday further south and west than the gfs!!!!!big disagreement between the 2!!gfs pulls everything east and northwards!!!

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So lets be honest if your of a cold persuation then this is the reason you login to see charts like this - even better to actually verify...

Not sure about anyone else but see this on the maps allows me to drift away & daydream a bit about years gone by & childhood memories of playing in the snow r hours & sledging etc...

 

06z 384 off the scale..

 

@MattStoke

You are wrong buddy - if such an intense area of PPN did form at those echoes of 10-15mm per hour then it will over ride all the negative marginal factors.

Ive been sat in the SE thread for 10 years & see random places like crawley get 7 inches of snow along a wave just because the PPN was red echoes on radar....

 

"Not sure about anyone else but see this on the maps allows me to drift away & daydream a bit about years gone by & childhood memories of playing in the snow r hours & sledging etc..."

Bang on... as a child of the 80's I still to this date treasure those days, school being shut early lobbing snowballs and sledging...

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Upstream the GFS shows no interest at all in the ECM solution . Given we’re talking about within T96 hrs , tonight one model is going to suffer a humiliating climbdown .

  and that model is most likely to be the GFS lot of the time the GFS always goes to the ECM solution as for now I cannot see any significant snow for Ellie low ground only snow will be for the usual places like Scotland.

[jules216]

These are scenes in my area this morning. We managed to squeeze -16.5C this morning near my location. Unfortunately there will be a thaw over the weekend. Long term prospects are looking promising. GFS long term version is indicating ice days again after mid month. So there must be continuity of this model to favor more European cooling as per GFS lala land charts  

Fingers crossed we finally get an interesting pre Christmas period. 

[alexisj9]

16 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

 

"Not sure about anyone else but see this on the maps allows me to drift away & daydream a bit about years gone by & childhood memories of playing in the snow r hours & sledging etc..."

Bang on... as a child of the 80's I still to this date treasure those days, school being shut early lobbing snowballs and sledging...

My school never shut for snow, it only shut once, during a very cold winter due to safety concerns, the water pipes were frozen.

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

My school never shut for snow, it only shut once, during a very cold winter due to safety concerns, the water pipes were frozen.

My school shut several times during 07-12 when I was at school, even if it was just a dusting! They never wanted to risk an accident happening, as a lot of people just wanted to throw snow and it was hard to control.

[Premiere Neige]

47 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Never rely on weather apps especially for snow.. Very unreliable and change every few hours!

I wouldn't usually but it has shown sleet since Sunday until it changed this morning. Prior to that the only change had been a temperature fluctuation between 3c and 4c. We shall see but I think some of the model predictions (one I noted was 29cm somewhere in the south east) are outlandish.

[Updated_Weather]

Just now, Premier Neige said:

I wouldn't usually but it has shown sleet since Sunday until it changed this morning. Prior to that the only change had been a temperature fluctuation between 3c and 4c. We shall see but I think some of the model predictions (one I noted was 29cm somewhere in the south east) are outlandish.

I understand but I have 3 different weather apps on my phone and all say different for the same day. Even on the day, they won’t agree especially regarding sleet/snow chances. MetO do have me having a chance to see snow, BBC just have sleet for several hours. It’s all messy and it will be a nowcast situation regardless of what some model predictions are saying.

[alexisj9]

1 minute ago, Updated_Weather said:

My school shut several times during 07-12 when I was at school, even if it was just a dusting! They never wanted to risk an accident happening, as a lot of people just wanted to throw snow and it was hard to control.

Oh yes, my kids schools shut due to snow now, but it didn't happen in the eighties. Or not where I was. Doesn't matter anyway, off topic so oops.

 

[moorlander]

1 hour ago, Paul_1978 said:

If it turns out like that, I’ll bare my a**e on the town hall steps!!

Pics backed with that days newspaper's.

Big thanks to the mods for allowing a lighter note into the model forum, 2020 the year we all need to bin from our memories. 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

41 minutes ago, jules216 said:

These are scenes in my area this morning. We managed to squeeze -16.5C this morning near my location. Unfortunately there will be a thaw over the weekend. Long term prospects are looking promising. GFS long term version is indicating ice days again after mid month. So there must be continuity of this model to favor more European cooling as per GFS lala land charts  

Fingers crossed we finally get an interesting pre Christmas period. 

And that’s without this  ‘deep cold’  to our east?  
 

BFTP

Edited December 2, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

Managed to find ecm 06z!!same as the 00z and further south than the gfs!!!

[Tim Bland]

Euro4 keeping the dream alive for the south east.. 

[wellington boot]

Something perhaps being a little overlooked is the degree of difference between these models at very short range. Within the first 72 hours, there are critical differences between the major models, and as I think @nick sussex noted, a humiliating climb down is coming in the next day or two for at least one of them. Insofar as a computer can be humiliated...

To illustrate, the GFS has a surface Greenland high from t24, with some height support, and in both respects that grows steadily through the entire run, right out to t384, where we have a full blown, mature GH. Meanwhile, both the ECM and the UKMO have very nearly eliminated any surface high from Greenland at just t72, and by t96, the surface high and any heights are gone, never to return. 

GFS:


ECM:


UKMO:


The rest of these runs are heavily influenced by events in that area, so until that evolution is figured out, it is difficult to take anything beyond it seriously.

Edited December 2, 2020 by wellington boot
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