Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[Skullzrulerz]

18 minutes ago, SussexSnow said:

I'm way out of the area, but I am driving to Falmouth on Friday to pick my son up from University for Xmas.   

Cornwall is incredibly rare for any snowfall so I would take even a dusting 

I live just outside of St Austell and somewhat on higher ground 200m

[Methuselah]

Gordon Benito! It's from one extreme to the other!

    

[nick sussex]

We should develop the coldies guide to the models in winter .

The first ones easy.

The most reliable model is the one which shows the most snow for your location !

This love in with the Harmonie is so typical of this thread but also good to see that in an ever changing world some things remain constant ! 

Tomorrow the Harmonie will get dumped and be replaced by the next go to model ! 

# Pray for Harmonie ! 

[SussexSnow]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Cornwall is incredibly rare for any snowfall so I would take even a dusting 

I live just outside of St Austell and somewhat on higher ground 200m

True, but we're driving from Worthing Friday night to Barnstaple, and then down to Penryn early Saturday, and then home. So we're crossing Exmoor, Bodmin and the edge of Dartmoor in about 12 hours! 

[dragan]

4 minutes ago, heath said:

Recent GFS runs in their outer reaches have shown Scandy high, Iceland wedge and Greenland high. And now nice south westerlies from an Iberian high. Plenty of choice, and uncertainty. 

so so true, according the the latest gfs, we have the usual south westerly airflow to look forward to after the cool spell.
This looks like it could really raise temps back up to seemingly normal recent December values, double figures for some. Rainfall would be focused on western areas.

[Skullzrulerz]

Must be getting a bit desperate if all of a sudden the best model is Harmonie...

GFS puts us back into a south westerly flow once this "cold spell" to even call it 

 

[dragan]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Must be getting a bit desperate if all of a sudden the best model is Harmonie...

GFS puts us back into a south westerly flow once this "cold spell" to even call it 

 

indeed, and this is by far the most likely outcome unfortunately. Would be a nice to have a change but i’m not positive 

[Pembroke Dangler]

7 minutes ago, dragan said:

so so true, according the the latest gfs, we have the usual south westerly airflow to look forward to after the cool spell.
This looks like it could really raise temps back up to seemingly normal recent December values, double figures for some. Rainfall would be focused on western areas.

Barbecue 12z or Igloo 06z you decide

[Methuselah]

Just goes to show how volatile (and, thus, wholly unreliable?) model-predictions are just now... I'm sure that @Zak M will be eying-up a thundery breakdown!

    

[nick sussex]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Must be getting a bit desperate if all of a sudden the best model is Harmonie...

GFS puts us back into a south westerly flow once this "cold spell" to even call it 

 

The GFS has been popping out a different solution every 6 hours in FI so I wouldn’t worry about it for the timebeing.

As for the Harmonie I really hope it’s correct but if not it would have had its 15 minutes of fame and can start auditioning for I’m a celeb.....

This thread is ruthless , coldies in here show no mercy ! But we wouldn’t have it any other way! 

[Snowmadsam]

The FI outcomes just show how uncertain the weather is for the next month or so let alone next few days in terms of “will it snow in my backyard??!!?!??!??!”

This winter is likely to throw up some surprises based on looking at model output over this past year. It could be amazing....it could be rubbish...AGAIN

The difference in just the GFS 6 and 12z provides the scale of the uncertainty of the synoptic pattern 

[PolarWarsaw]

Understandably the topic of discussion is the chance of a bit of wet snow over higher ground this weekend, but as previous messages suggested - the momentum in the mid-long term has swung away from a snowy/cold outlook to an increase of milder/ the climatological norm.

Coming from an avid coldie this is extremely typical and looks potentially like reverting to more standard December like conditions. Even if you could see this coming a mile away. My opinion of this whole last week/next week continues to be pig on a lipstick. I would expect the tone of this thread to follow more along those lines in the current day. 

My advice would for the tiny majority (mostly over hills) to enjoy any wet flakes that fall this weekend as the mid-term prognosis is heading the opposite way to what most will be hoping for thereafter.

Edited December 2, 2020 by PolarWarsaw

[fromey]

I’m just going throw this into the mix

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by fromey

[Faronstream]

 

 

1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

but as previous messages suggested - the momentum in the mid-long term has swung away from a snowy/cold outlook to an increase of milder/ the climatological norm.

No it still looks good polar vortex going weaker than average from 10th of december and the month out basically, almost impossible for a +NAO setup this december.

[SussexSnow]

1 minute ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Understandably the topic of discussion is the chance of a bit of west snow over higher ground this weekend, but as previous messages suggested - the momentum in the mid-long term has swung away from a snowy/cold outlook to an increase of milder/ the climatological norm. Coming from an avid coldie this is extremely typical and looks potentially like reverting to more standard December like conditions. My opinion of this whole last week/next week continues to be pig on a lipstick. I would expect the tone of this thread to follow more along those lines in the current day. 

My advice would for the tiny majority (mostly over hills) to enjoy any wet flakes that fall this weekend as the mid-term prognosis is heading the opposite way most will be hoping for thereafter.

Seems an odd viewpoint based purely on the GFS op run (my assumption). The ensemble contains all sorts of outcomes, including similar to the 6Z op.  I'd wager the overall outcome is pretty much the same as it was this morning, once all data is in.

[Geordiesnow]

No real excitement on the GFS/UKMO runs this evening low pressure in charge, chilly and at times wet. All very slow moving too due to that annoying blocking high so the UK will always remain on the colder side of the jet but never getting all that cold apart from tomorrow across Scotland.

[BlueHedgehog074]

5 minutes ago, fromey said:

I’m just going throw this into the mix

 

If I’ve understood that chart properly, that would show the forecast of the zonal wind speed dropping at the 10 hPa level?

[TSNWK]

4 minutes ago, SussexSnow said:

Seems an odd viewpoint based purely on the GFS op run (my assumption). The ensemble contains all sorts of outcomes, including similar to the 6Z op.  I'd wager the overall outcome is pretty much the same as it was this morning, once all data is in.

Agreed.

My view is Means from GFS / ECM along with those old sckool looking charts from John for longer term, Mid term  the OPS up to about 198 have it reasonable - for short term, well tonight its Harmonie  but one chance missy, blow it and  you're dumped and traded in for a new model...

 

 

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Understandably the topic of discussion is the chance of a bit of west snow over higher ground this weekend, but as previous messages suggested - the momentum in the mid-long term has swung away from a snowy/cold outlook to an increase of milder/ the climatological norm. Coming from an avid coldie this is extremely typical and looks potentially like reverting to more standard December like conditions. My opinion of this whole last week/next week continues to be pig on a lipstick. I would expect the tone of this thread to follow more along those lines in the current day. 

My advice would for the tiny majority (mostly over hills) to enjoy any wet flakes that fall this weekend as the mid-term prognosis is heading the opposite way most will be hoping for thereafter.

Momentum has never shifted to a snowy outlook the issue of cold air has always been there & there’s nowt to suggest anything really milder in next 10 days. You’re playing the fool if you lose sleep over GFS 12z in FI which was radically different to 06z.

[Weather vane]

2 hours ago, Sky Full said:

I like the look of this very encouraging progression from the GFS 6z between the 11th and 18th December....

  
 

That cold in the east is on the move - and in our direction! 

Needless to say, we will have to wait and see to compare these fantasy charts with the reality in 10 days from now.....

How do you download the animated runs on Meteociel? I can't see how to do this. Thanks.

[SussexSnow]

2 minutes ago, Weather vane said:

How do you download the animated runs on Meteociel? I can't see how to do this. Thanks.

Click the icons - top right.  the GIF one allows you to make GIFs

Edited December 2, 2020 by SussexSnow

[fromey]

9 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

If I’ve understood that chart properly, that would show the forecast of the zonal wind speed dropping at the 10 hPa level?

I believe so, best pop over to the PV thread fo a better understanding

[Weather vane]

3 minutes ago, SussexSnow said:

Click the icons - top right.  the GIF one allows you to make GIFs

Really appreciate that. Thanks.

[heath]

All the recent varieties in later GFS operational runs at least share the presence of amplification somewhere. Let's hope that continues. 

[weirpig]

For what its worth at this range  and depending what falls the euro 4  brings the wrap around further west