Model output discussion - Winter has arrived

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

5 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

ECM 0z's have 'smelt' of breakdowns the last couple of runs...it's the 12z's which are holding onto the hope, be interesting which starts moving to the other?

Relax, no breakdown, just shuffling.....BFTE still anticipated

BFTP

[Froze were the Days]

2 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

BFTE still anticipated

?

[Paul]

Covering off 

23 minutes ago, E17boy said:

just some Breaking news had a look on my app ( don't know how accurate that is) but it's showing snow already falling in Edinburgh.

 

22 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

It's raining 

Yep, recommend using the radar and switching on the weather type!

https://www.netweather.tv/live-weather/radar

As for snow amounts and what the ECM is showing, definitely needing to take some big buckets of salt with it. Not saying it's absolutely impossible, but I'd not bet on it!

UKV's take on lying snow Friday morning - this doesn't rule out temporary coverings elsewhere, but it's mostly on the high ground it's having any lasting accumulations. 

Netwx (3km) model is similar, but does bring a bit into the far southeast.

[Frosty.]

The CFS would like to wish everyone a cold Christmas and there’s even a chance of some snow!   

Edited December 2, 2020 by Jon Snow

[SMU]

ICON brings 2-3cm to NW kent the 4-5cm up in suffolk & cambs -

I do however like the 96 chart, very rare to see the uk under low heights & stationary air.

COLD!

[Catacol]

9 hours ago, Frosty Winter said:

This is beautiful.

I usually don’t even bother with these trash far distant runs....but actually this chart is the sort of thing my musings earlier might lead to. Big wave break over Scandy underway now leads to reinforcement of the Siberian high and then the wave pushes on and reinforces the pacific signal for renewed North Pacific heights as the pacific jet pulls back. Wave 2 forcing replaced by wave 1 initiated from the pacific. It is worth adding that Masiello has been tweeting some very useful images to show that the MJO is anything but quiet and RMM plots are misleading. The signal for amplification therefore remains.

The clean cross polar flow shown here looks pretty extreme to me...but the cold air being adverted back west under the block was the earlier broad thought. Timescale is also about right. I somehow doubt it will end up quite so dramatic but the general pattern isn’t out of the question I think. Amplification this week and into next has exceeded the expectations of a couple of weeks ago and overall my optimism for the second half of the month is rising.

[Johnp]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

 

Of course!

But like everybody else there are other pressing matters that have shifted my attention elsewhere, shall we say?

Certainly no Winter Wonderland on the horizon but plenty of seasonal fare on offer, frost, rain, sleet and snow for some of the lucky ones.

The Atlantic sliding into coldish continental flow could provide a bit of fun but hoping to see some of the Atlantic blocking that is often getting modelled in FI stick 

Hope you and yours are well too.

Welcome back me old Mucka.  I always aprreciate your early morning model roundup

[sheikhy]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON brings 2-3cm to NW kent the 4-5cm up in suffolk & cambs -

I do however like the 96 chart, very rare to see the uk under low heights & stationary air.

COLD!

Look at that little december 2017 type slider coming in mate

[Mapantz]

13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Its such a small feature !  975MB in the channel

972 on the UKV - 18Z and previous 15Z. 

Very marginal in terms of Wintriness, it's still sticking with a rain/snow mix.

[Robbie Garrett]

3 hours ago, fromey said:

I’m just going throw this into the mix

 

Do you have last year's for comparison? 

[TSNWK]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON brings 2-3cm to NW kent the 4-5cm up in suffolk & cambs -

I do however like the 96 chart, very rare to see the uk under low heights & stationary air.

COLD!

Slider as well... and maybe we might just tip a little further onto right side of marginal.. 

[Methuselah]

5 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The CFS would like to wish everyone a cold Christmas and there’s even a chance of some snow!   

Aye Frosty, and the GFS 12Z (Bless it!) would have us sunbathing on Brighton beach, a mere week-or-so prior?

The obvious question is, therefore: Is it safe to light a BBQ in an igloo? And, also: Do snowflakes 'sizzle' when landing on a still-warm charcoal briquette?

Well, it is 2020, after all!?

[bluearmy]

4 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Do you have last year's for comparison? 

From memory it was the opposite ! 

[wellington boot]

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

Agreed Mike...

Undoubtedly the Euro low is saving us from a pretty awful fate ..

My concern is we are seeing no appetite whatsoever for ridging into Greenland.

Eventually without a decent High Latitude block everything will flatten out and a +NAO will set up.

 

Interestingly this evening's ECM shows much higher pressure over Greenland than the 00z. 

I posted earlier about the GFS's (not the 12z...) persistent modelling of surface HP over Greenland, with ever increasing upper support, whereas the ECM and the UKMO had nothing at any level start to end.

Well this evening the ECM has persistent surface high pressure over Greenland and an inkling of upper support - at t240 it looks like it might be ripe for the Scandi high to ridge across...

[johnholmes]

23 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Relax, no breakdown, just shuffling.....BFTE still anticipated

BFTP

I think if you are expecting BFTE in the next 2 weeks you will be disappointed

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

12 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

The CFS would like to wish everyone a cold Christmas and there’s even a chance of some snow!   

This model always seems to be a winner when it spots trends in FI. Its been showing cold seasonal weather for around the xmas period since early November. 

[Skullzrulerz]

15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

ICON brings 2-3cm to NW kent the 4-5cm up in suffolk & cambs -

I do however like the 96 chart, very rare to see the uk under low heights & stationary air.

COLD!

If you're really that excited for cold rain and a bit of sleet go for it

And as several people have already said unfortunately there have been some concern that there no signs of a Greenland high and there's only so much you can do from that before eventually going back to that norm 

On the plus side it's good to see that they may be some promise for a Scandinavian high later on but it's in Fantasy land 

Unless it's gets closer to the reliable timeframe there's no point in looking

 

 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

12 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

I think if you are expecting BFTE in the next 2 weeks you will be disappointed

No John....3 to 3 1/2 weeks  Nice to see a ‘decent’ start to winter...as expected 

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited December 2, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[SMU]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

If you're really that excited for cold rain and a bit of sleet go for it

And as several people have already said unfortunately there have been some concern that there no signs of a Greenland high and there's only so much you can do from that before eventually going back to that norm 

On the plus side it's good to see that they may be some promise for a Scandinavian high later on but it's in Fantasy land 

Unless it's gets closer to the reliable timeframe there's no point in looking

 

 

 

Tell me how 5cm of snowcover adds up to rain & sleet? 

[BurwellWeatherWatch]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

 

Unless it's gets closer to the reliable timeframe there's no point in looking

 

 

 

maybe this is the wrong thread to discuss in then?

[SMU]

Short term 18 V 24 hrs GFS makes a fair correction NW which wll probably change westwards the PPN belt at 36-42

[Methuselah]

9 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

No John....3 to 3 1/2 weeks  Nice to see a ‘decent’ start to winter...as expected 

 

BFTP

Isn't this 'anticipated' to be a winter that would do the 20th Century proud... or words to that effect?

[bluearmy]

Gfs 18z uninterested in any se U.K. fri am snow ..... 

[fromey]

28 minutes ago, Robbie Garrett said:

Do you have last year's for comparison? 

Hi, this is the closest I could get to the date, I believe this was published on the 8th December 2019

[sheikhy]

Just now, bluearmy said:

Gfs 18z uninterested in any se U.K. fri am snow ..... 

Huge egg on the face incoming for one of gfs or ecm?